A fifth of Israelis think COVID is a government, pharma conspiracy, poll says

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If what Israel needs in order to fight the coronavirus is public trust and a shared view of reality, then the Israeli government – and the entire Israeli public – seems to be in serious trouble. Over a year and a half into the pandemic, after thousands of deaths and three lockdowns, a sizable chunk of the public believes that COVID-19 is “part of a conspiracy by pharmaceutical companies” (18 percent) or “part of a government conspiracy” (20 percent).

These are the results of a survey conducted last week by Prof. Michal Grinstein-Weiss, the director of the Social Policy Institute at Washington University in St. Louis and a visiting professor at the Interdisciplinary Center in Herzliya. The survey polled 845 people and is a representative sample of the adult population in Israel.

A third of the respondents also said “the media is exaggerating the dangers of the pandemic,” while 36 percent said the public response to it the virus has been excessive. Sixty-one percent said there is a lack of trustworthy information about the coronavirus pandemic, though the definition of “trustworthy information” could well be subjective concerning the disease.

A matter of trust

The survey examined the views and changes in behaviors of the public on the fourth wave of the coronavirus pandemic in Israel, the third dose of the vaccine currently given to those over age 60 and inoculating children under age 12.

Just a few weeks ago, many people thought COVID was a thing of the past, but after a few weeks of near-absolute calm, the gradual but significant rise in daily diagnoses and patients in serious condition began. As of now, only 15 percent of the Israeli public believes that the coronavirus crisis is “already behind us,” 2 percent say the pandemic is “completely” behind us, and 13 percent say it is “partially” behind us. Another 67 percent think COVID is not behind us; 18 percent think the pandemic will get worse.

But the issue that most worries the Israeli public – more than the health risks – is that another lockdown will be imposed. Forty-three percent of respondents said they are worried about the possibility of a lockdown, compared to 37 percent who said they were worried about the increase in the number of confirmed cases. A quarter of respondents, 25 percent, said they were worried about losing their jobs or being furloughed, while 18 percent said they were worried about a ban on leaving the country.

Even though Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and his cabinet ministers are careful to say they will do everything to avoid another closure, the public is skeptical. The threat of a lockdown is very concrete for many: Almost half the Israeli public, 48 percent of those who responded to the survey, believe a lockdown will be imposed on Israel “soon.”

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What worries Israelis the most regarding lockdowns is the possible economic ramifications (50 percent), restrictions on leaving home (46 percent) and a ban on meeting with relatives during the holidays (48 percent). Slightly fewer are concerned that schools will close in the fall (43 percent), or that it will harm their livelihoods (34 percent).

As of now, the most prominent change that most of the respondents reported due to the increase in cases is their refusal to fly abroad, or decision to cancel vacations they’ve already booked – 63 percent of those polled attested to this. In a similar vein, 33 percent said they did not take a trip or canceled a vacation within Israel due to the latest COVID wave. Despite this, only a small number reported that they are avoiding getting together with family or friends, or having their children meet with friends: seven percent.

Just one percent changed their minds in favor of the jab

Even though vaccination is currently the government’s main strategy for curbing the outbreak, almost a third of Israelis, 31 percent, said they don’t consider the vaccine effective in stopping the pandemic. The public believes the vaccine’s major advantage is its ability to prevent symptomatic infection. A great majority, 82 percent, say the vaccine is effective in preventing the development of COVID symptoms, 69 percent say it is effective in stopping the pandemic and just 59 percent say it is effective in preventing infection.

Fifteen percent said their position on the necessity of the jab has changed recently. Of those, 9 percent said that their opinion changed for the worse, and just 1 percent said they changed their opinion in favor of the vaccine.

The survey also examined the willingness to receive the third dose of the vaccine, mostly among those who had already been inoculated with the first two doses. Eighty-four percent said they had taken the first two doses of the vaccine, but the survey found that not all those who had gotten the jab intend to do so again, at least for now.

Out of those who have been vaccinated, only 52 percent responded that they are “very likely” to go get a third jab, and 25 percent, said there were certain circumstances in which they would take it. Nearly a quarter – 23 percent, said it is not on the horizon: 15 percent said it is “pretty unlikely” they would be vaccinated again, and 8 percent said it was “not likely at all.”

It’s not quite a surprise, but older people were more willing to receive the third dose. Of respondents aged 60 and older who received the first two doses, 67 percent said they would get the jab again. The average for those aged 18-59 was 47 percent.

Staff and patients at Herzog Medical Center’s coronavirus ward in Jerusalem, last week. Ohad Zwigenberg

Among parents of children aged 5 to 11, the number of those who said they would vaccinate their children is now very low: A 54 percent majority said they would not vaccinate their children, compared to only 23 percent who said they would. Another 23 percent said they were still unsure.

The chances that parents of children this age will agree to vaccinate them are influenced by their past: The more times the children were quarantined, the more willing their parents were to vaccinate them. Twenty-seven percent of parents whose children had been in isolation more than once said they are inclined to vaccinate their children, compared to 19 percent of parents whose children had not been quarantined. Most of the parents who said they would not vaccinate their young children – 73 percent – said that not enough is known yet about the long-term effects of the vaccine.

Grinstein-Weiss, who conducted the survey, said that “The findings of the research attest to an erosion in the public’s trust, which as we have seen is critical in managing the pandemic.” She noted that decision-makers should be concerned by the conclusions. “We also see a decrease in the public’s trust in the effectiveness of the vaccine, which is expressed in that only about half of those who were vaccinated with the first and second dose (52 percent) intend on receiving the third dose of the vaccine,” despite the fact that most of the public believes that the coronavirus pandemic is not over yet, and is afraid of contracting the disease.