Israel’s COVID delta wave seemed to skip the ultra-Orthodox. Then their schools reopened

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The rate of new coronavirus cases in Israel after the arrival of the delta variant was lower in the ultra-Orthodox community than in the general public – until the Haredi schools reopened earlier this month, Health Ministry data shows.

The delta variant was first detected in Israel in early July. Before its arrival, the daily number of new cases in the general public had fallen to single digits, even zero on some days. But after highly contagious new strain arrived, new cases began to rise again in late July.

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According to Health Ministry data released on August 8, the day the ultra-Orthodox schools reopened – Haredim comprised only 5 percent of new coronavirus cases in Israel. By August 17, that share had risen to 12 percent, roughly consistent with the community’s size relative to the overall population.

Non-Haredi schools are slated to reopen across Israel on September 1.

Meanwhile, new data released by the Education Ministry on Monday showed a significantly higher illness rate among ultra-Orthodox students compared with non-Haredi school-age children (who aren’t back at school yet).

According to the ministry, there were more than 1,600 confirmed cases of ultra-Orthodox children with COVID-19 by Monday, an increase of 130 percent since August 3.

Ultra-Orthodox Jews were disproportionately affected by the virus during the previous three waves because, experts explained, they tend to have larger families and live in denser neighborhoods than other Israeli communities. Their emphasis on group activities such as communal prayer and learning, and their initial refusal to shut down schools and yeshivas, also hampered the implementation of social distancing measures.

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During the second wave last October, health officials reported that ultra-Orthodox Jews accounted for at least 34 percent of all cases in Israel.

A first-of-its-kind blood test conducted earlier this month in several ultra-Orthodox neighborhoods found that approximately one in every five of the tested children had antibodies to COVID-19, showing that they had previously contracted the disease.

The ultra-Orthodox community initially appeared to be weathering this fourth wave. Their relatively low infection rates led many in the community to believe their high number of recovered patients, combined with rising vaccination rates, was providing them with a measure of protection.

“Unfortunately, in previous waves, if we standardize for age, this community had the worst impact from COVID in terms of severe cases and death rates,” said Prof. Nadav Davidovitch, head of the Israeli Association of Public Health Physicians.

He had predicted that cases among the ultra-Orthodox would rise anew. The previous waves began with people from the general population importing it from abroad; then it spread to the Haredi and Arab communities, Davidovitch explained. “The idea that the Haredi population has already reached herd immunity is not the case, especially because of the delta variant, which is much more infectious and the herd immunity threshold is higher,” he said.

Aside from having a lower rate of international travel, compared with the general public, the ultra-Orthodox community also minimized certain social gatherings at the start of the current wave, said Avi Blumenthal, an ultra-Orthodox consultant who works with the Health Ministry.

He noted that the delta variant began to spread around the same time as the Three Weeks, a period of the Jewish calendar marked by mourning and culminating in the fast of Tisha B’Av, during which public celebrations such as weddings are minimized.

But the reopening of schools and the upcoming High Holy Days could pose a problem, Blumenthal warned, calling on health officials to increase engagement with ultra-Orthodox communities, and on ultra-Orthodox Jews to wear masks and pray outdoors.

Ruhama Frankel, of the advocacy group Forum for Haredi Public Health, said there needs to be better infrastructure set up for sharing epidemiological data with community leaders.

“If want to deal with the pandemic, we need to go to the community through its rabbis,” she said.

Asked if he believed that the ultra-Orthodox community would again be disproportionately affected by the pandemic, Davidovitch said it is “definitely a possibility.” He also called on community leaders to make arrangements for outside prayer during the upcoming religious holidays. “They are aware that the situation is not as good as they thought just a few weeks ago,” he said.