Hamas is heating up front with Israel despite Qatari cash deal

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Hamas decided to heat up the front with Israel on Saturday, despite the agreement to renew the transfer of Qatari monetary aid to the Gaza Strip reached last week. It allowed violent protests to take place near the border fence, this time to mark the 52nd anniversary of the burning of Jerusalem’s Al-Aqsa Mosque.

A sniper from the Border Police undercover antiterrorism unit was critically wounded, along with dozens of Palestinians, two of them critically. The large number of wounded protesters is expected to lead to further friction at the fence, which will almost certainly draw an Israeli response.

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The agreement reached between Qatar and the United Nations solves two-thirds of the problems over the aid, which Israel suspended after its Gaza operation in May. Israel wanted to end the practice of suitcases of cash that the Qataris had been bringing with them to the Strip since 2018. According to the new arrangement, $10 million a month will be transferred to the Gaza Strip, through banks and under UN supervision, to 100,000 needy families there. The same amount will be transferred every month to cover the cost of fuel for the Gaza power station.

The unresolved one third of the problems, also worth $10 million, involves funding the salaries of tens of thousands of Hamas civil servants in the enclave. Here, Israel is demanding stricter supervision. Ostensibly, in the agreement reached, Israel stuck to the demands it presented at the end of the Gaza operation – first by former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government and then Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s government. But in fact, it seems that Israel insisted more on optics than essential achievements. Qatar is not a neutral player entirely made of goodwill. It has its own agendas and has more than once used the aid to improve the position of Hamas no less than to help the residents themselves.

The Israeli leadership is aware of this, but had to compromise in the hopes of preventing a new flare-up. Alongside Qatar and the United Nations, Egypt is also investing major efforts in reaching an agreement and is exerting heavy pressure on the parties to compromise. Nevertheless, it seems that at most that only a brief hiatus has been reached until the next flare-up between Israel and Hamas. Despite the obvious satisfaction in the Israel Defense Forces after the May operation in Gaza, the basic situation there has not changed much.

One of the main obstacles to more progress involves the two Israeli civilians and the remains of two IDF soldiers being held by Hamas. Israel has clearly stated that the rehabilitation and development of the Gaza Strip depends on progress in resolving this issue. As long as no agreement is reached, progress on rehabilitation projects will remain limited. At the moment, the gaps between the parties are simply too great. Hamas expects many hundreds of security prisoners to be released in exchange for the captive Israelis, an achievement that Israel apparently does not intend to grant it.

The relative restraint that Israel has shown recently vis-a-vis the Strip is connected to Israel’s closer ties with Egypt. After a series of meetings at senior levels, on Thursday Israel lifted its severe travel warning to Sinai, which should facilitate visits by Israeli tourists to the peninsula. In addition, Cairo needs help from Jerusalem to improve its ties with Washington. It is still possible that the United States will slash $300 million from its annual aid to Egypt, totaling $1.3 billion, because of human rights abuses there.

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A Hamas clerk in the Gaza Strip, holding up her salary, paid for by Qatar, in December 2018.Ibraheem Abu Mustafa / Reuters

Israel is not pleased that Egypt has removed all oversight on merchandise arriving in the Gaza Strip through the Rafah crossing, something that could allow Hamas to smuggle weapons and building materials into Gaza, which it needs in order to upgrade its operational capabilities after the last clash.

Northern tensions

Meanwhile, in the north, it seems that Israel and Iran have resumed exchanging blows. At the beginning of the month, Iranian drones attacked the tanker Mercer Street, partially owned by an Israeli company. Two crew members were killed, one British and the other Romanian. There was some expectation that Israel would retaliate at sea. But in the end, the response (for which Israel does not officially claim responsibility) came from the air, in Syria.

On Thursday night Syrian military camps were bombarded in the area of Damascus and Homs. The target: Iranian weapons associated with the Revolutionary Guards and the Shi’ite militias they field there. The claims reiterated on Saturday by the Russian army – that this time, too, most of the Israeli missiles were intercepted by the Russian air defense systems used by the Syrian army – do not seem reliable.

It was Israel that started the maritime battle against Iran more than two years ago. At the moment it seems that Israel prefers to conduct the “battle between the wars” in other areas, and limit maritime incidents. Mutual attacks persist without reference to the negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program. Defense officials in Israel have the sense that the Biden administration wants to renew talks with Iran on a new nuclear agreement as soon as Iran signals its readiness to do so.

The extent of Israel’s impact on the talks seems very limited, even just ahead of Bennett’s visit with President Joe Biden, due to take place this Thursday in Washington. On the bottom line, the outcome depends mainly on Iran: Will it decide to sign a new agreement on American conditions? Israel has not intervened so far in an attempt to disrupt Iranian tanker traffic, the first of which was sent via the Suez Canal and the Mediterranean Sea to Lebanon over the weekend to assist in supplying oil to that country.

The situation in Lebanon is growing worse – on Friday the electricity was cut in large areas of the country, and Israel doesn’t want to appear as adding to civilian distress there. Sources in the IDF say that Hezbollah, despite the rockets it fired from southern Lebanon at the Golan Heights about two weeks ago, wants to avoid more military friction.

Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, this month. Ohad Zwigenberg

A new Shin Bet head

Barring any postponements, Bennett is expected to make an announcement this week, around the time he heads to Washington, of a new Shin Bet security service chief. Bennett has already appointed a national security adviser, Eyal Hulata, around the time he took office, but this will be the first time he appoints one of the heads of the security organizations.

The five-year term of the current Shin Bet chief, Nadav Argaman, was supposed to have ended in May, but was extended for a few months because of the election and changeover of the government. Netanyahu had planned to appoint the previous national security adviser, Meir Ben-Shabbat, to the post. The latter, who had served in senior positions in the Shin Bet, was considered close to the former premier.

For Bennett, the appointment of Ben-Shabbat is not on the table. Two candidates are under consideration – Argaman’s current second-in-command, who due to censorship is referred to as R., and the previous deputy, Y. The current deputy has a background similar to Argaman’s, in the security service’s operational wing. The previous deputy came up through the ranks with a more traditional background, as a coordinator in the Palestinian arena. He also has technological skills and filled roles in this area as well.

Bennett has recently consulted former senior official – both civilian and security ones – on the matter. According to sources, his decision will be a “photo finish.” The two candidates are both considered suitable for the post and there is broad consensus as to their skills. Therefore, no shake-ups around the appointment are anticipated in the service.