Face it: There will be no Palestinian state

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When it comes to the occupation, it makes no difference which government is running the country. It continues, in any case. It continued under Rabin and it continued under Peres; it continued under Shamir and Begin and it continued under Netanyahu; it continued under Barak and it has continued under Bennett-Lapid. The occupation continues, regardless of the identity of the government, its electorate and those heading it. And it continues even when the government is ostensibly headed by someone who declares his desire for peace with the Palestinians, and even when the prime minister publicly declares that he will prevent a Palestinian state at all costs.

That’s why we should note that the government declaration that civil society organizations in the West Bank are terror organizations accords with its plans to build in the West Bank in a way that will “confirm the kill” of the two-state option, which is dead in any case, and with the announcement by Prime Minister Naftali Bennett that there will be no negotiations with the Palestinians and there will be no Palestinian state.

Given that the occupation, the settlements and apartheid have been the policy of all of Israel’s governments in the past 54 years, there is no escaping the conclusion that this is simply Israel’s policy, the policy of the Jewish people. Opponents of the occupation are few, are declining in numbers, and lack any political power. It’s important to continue to fight the occupation. It’s a moral obligation. It’s also important now to cry out against the actions being led by Defense Minister Benny Gantz against civil society organizations in the West Bank and to act to retract them. But we also have to see the big picture: The occupation has succeeded, the settlement enterprise has succeeded, apartheid has succeeded. These are faits accomplis. There will be no Palestinian state. Period.

So what will there be? We don’t know yet. Perhaps a binational state, perhaps a federation, perhaps a confederation. In all these models a continuation of apartheid, the violent colonialist rule of another nation, is the leading option.

It is evident that the Israeli public, which chose occupation and wants occupation and makes sure to be headed by governments that continue it come hell or high water, has no incentive for ending the occupation, or interest in doing so. Neither ideological nor economic, neither moral nor practical. Since Israel excels at occupation, we can’t expect such an incentive to come from the direction of the Palestinians, in the guise of a popular uprising against the occupation.

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The Palestinians have been defeated. Sometimes by themselves and usually by Israel, but the bottom line is that they are incapable of fighting the occupation. And in any case, if they begin another bloody intifada, which would really cause pain to Israel’s citizens, the occupation would only seem to those citizens more justified, a necessity, a matter of survival.

The Palestinians have no way of convincing their occupiers to stop. Not by force and not by persuasion. Only the world can do that. The United States, Europe, Russia, China. But will the world really unite in order to put an end to the Israeli occupation? For now, it won’t. Israel is a very strong country. It has deep and widespread military, intelligence and economic ties with all the countries that are capable of forcing it to liberate the Palestinians, or at least to cause its citizens to give serious thought to whether continuing the occupation is worthwhile. Including the Arab countries. In the United States and Europe there are significant political movements that are determined to end the occupation, but for the time being they are too weak to influence the situation.

And therefore, even when the bilateral state, or the confederation, or whatever, is established – apartheid and colonialism are expected to continue. That’s the likely, realistic forecast. It should be faced. Along with a continuation of the fight against the occupation, we must acknowledge its failure, both present and future. That’s very painful. Depressing. It makes the entire struggle against former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the name of preserving “democracy” seem absurd at times. But that’s the situation.