This is how Israel’s government plans to pass a key vote this week

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What’s the timeline for this week?

After two years without a budget, failure to pass this one could result in the current government’s downfall. The Knesset has until November 14th to approve the 2021-2022 budget and the Economic Arrangements Law, but landmines pop up every day in the form of power struggles and conflicts of interests.

Hence, the coalition is trying to pass the budget as soon as possible. But it is also pushing ahead to ensure they have time to raise it for a re-vote if it happened to fail.

Despite these horizons, the coalition remains largely optimistic that they will succeed in securing the budget’s passage without difficulty.

The discussions are expected to move to the plenum on Tuesday and Wednesday. The coalition aims to begin voting on Wednesday, and approve the budget in the final vote on Thursday, but is prepared for the process to begin on Thursday and be completed early next week.

What has happened so far?

The last time the government approved the state budget was in March 2018, when the second and third rounds of voting on the 2019 budget passed. Since then, for most of 2020 the current government has continued operating based on the previous budget with additional amendments to increase it. The High Court of Justice ruled that this move constituted misuse of the Knesset’s authority.

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The fact that the budget was not passed in an organized fashion is taking its toll, including on NGOs that receive most of their funding on an annual basis, and act as subcontractors to the state in certain areas, as well as infrastructure projects that did not have their contracts renewed.

The budget is the government’s main tool to determine government spending and implementation of policy, and according to the Basic Law on the State Economy – the budget must be framed in the form of a law. The Economic Arrangements Law comes before the Knesset for a vote at the same time as the budget.

What is the significance of the passing of the budget?

Beyond its broad economic significance, the passing of the state budget affects the government’s political stability. According to law, a government that is unable to pass the budget disperses automatically.

The previous government was dissolved after Prime Minister Netanyahu chose not to transfer the budget in order to prevent the premier rotation to Benny Gantz.

Assuming the current budget passes, amendments in the Basic Law assure the rotation in premiership will take place even if the government disperses. Lapid’s prospects as prime minister therefore rely heavily on the upcoming vote.

According to an amendment passed by the current coalition, the government will need to pass the next budget six months after the budgetary year, in June 2023. That is about two months before the rotation of the premiership from Prime Minister Naftali Bennett to Foreign Minister Yair Lapid. Of course, the government will try to pass the budget in December 2022, so as not to place the economy in a tailspin.

Is the coalition going to depend on the United Arab List?

In an attempt to secure the support of the United Arab List, the first Arab party in the coalition, the budget includes NIS 30 billion (almost $9.5 billion) of the 53 billion promised to them during the coalition agreements. This is a very significant sum to the United Arab List voters, and to MKs Mazen Ghanayim and Walid Taha, so it is unlikely that they will vote against the budget.

Although the pro-Netanyahu bloc — including Likud, Shas, United Torah Judaism, Religious Zionism and Yamina MK Amichai Chikli — all outright reject the budget, the Joint List is understood to tacitly support it. Neither MK Tibi nor his Joint List colleague MK Ayman Odeh voiced any clear opposition to the budget. Tibi has close ties to various members of the coalition and is relatively close to Mansour Abbas.

Who might the weak links be, and what are the chances they will stop the budget from passing?

The “usual suspects” are the same coalition members who have been marked in recent weeks as problematic -some members of the Yamina party, especially Interior Minister Ayelet Shaked, who is on very tense terms with some members of the coalition.

Thanks to the “Norwegian Law,” which forces those who become a minister to resign their seat in the Knesset, and bringing into the legislator the next candidate in the party’s roster, Shaked cannot vote against the budget. However, she may have sway on who does.

Others who have been discontented over the short span of the coalition are also unlikely to dissent. The government believes Defense Minister Gantz won’t rally against the budget, and he has publicly stated his intention to support it. The same is true for Eli Avidar, who has never threatened to bring down the government, despite his dissatisfaction with his role as a minister without a portfolio and his effective desertion of his party, Yisrael Beiteinu.

The leaders of the coalition are confident they have the required simple majority to pass the budget. This provides them with certain room for maneuver, allowing them to approve the budget even if certain coalition members do not support it, such as Yamina MK Chikli. If some coalition lawmakers abstain or oppose, they could try to persuade members of the opposition to not be present at the vote or abstain, so as not to thwart the move and lead to new elections.