Israel’s alleged strikes on Syria’s chemical weapons sites meant to preserve the old balance of forces

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In spite of everything, there are still some secrets left in the Middle East that stay that way for more than a few weeks. The Washington Post reported on Monday that in June Israel bombed three sites in Syria for producing chemical weapons. This is the first time that an Israeli effort against the Assad regime’s attempts to restart the production of weapons of mass destruction has been disclosed, since the agreement to dismantle Syria’s chemical weapons stockpiles in the summer of 2013.

According to the Post, which quotes Western intelligence officials, the attacks by the Israel Air Force were meant to prevent an attempt by the Assad regime to begin producing nerve gas again. In the June 8 attacks on the three sites in the area of Damascus and Homs, seven Syrian military people were killed, including a colonel. Israel did not take responsibility for the attack, and even now is avoiding responding to requests from the Post.

The issue of Syrian chemical weapons was at the center of the intensive international interest in the first stage of the civil war in Syria. Back in 2012, the first testimony of the regime’s use of chemical weapons began to appear, mostly against the regions that rebel groups had taken over near Damascus and Homs, and of the deaths of many civilians from those attacks. Then-President Barack Obama described the use of chemical weapons as a red line. Later, in the spring of 2013, a disagreement developed between Israel and the United States after Israeli intelligence exposed more cases in which Syria had used chemical weapons, and this did not please the Obama administration.

After the large chemical weapons attack by the Assad regime in the suburbs of Damascus, Obama considered a major attack as punishment. But in the end, Obama changed his mind, after he ran into opposition in Congress, and was also unable to win the support of the British government. But this had a bright side too: Because of the American threats, the Russians intervened and an international agreement was reached for a supervised removal of the chemical weapons stockpiles in Syria.

Israel was skeptical at first, but in the end even Israeli intelligence acknowledged that the agreement led to the removal of over 95 percent of the chemical weapons in the Assad regime’s hands. From an Israeli perspective, this was a major turn in the right direction. Weapons held by the regime as a strategic response to Israel’s superiority, which was demonstrated at the end of the Yom Kippur War, were removed from the equation.

The scene of a missile attack in Latakia, Syria, which Syria blamed on Israel, last week.SANA / AP

Assuming that the Post’s story is correct, it can be supposed that what pushed Israel to act this year was not the fear of nerve gas being used against the opposition in Syria, but the desire to preserve the balance of forces in its favor. Since the red line has already been drawn successfully, there is no reason to allow President Bashar al-Assad to violate it.

According to reports in the foreign media, Israel has attacked in recent months in Syria more frequently than before, but the vast majority of these strikes are aimed against pro-Iranian Shi’ite militia bases and weapons storehouses, where the weapons that Iran wants to smuggle to Hezbollah are kept. In June, the Israeli actions were directed against the Assad regime itself, an unusual step, to preserve the old status quo.

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Two conclusions can be drawn from the Syrian government’s decision to return to nerve gas production: One is that the moment Assad has the opportunity, he returns to evil ways – and all the warnings from the international community will not help. The second is that the regime is in the midst of a wider process to establish its control throughout the country.

Israeli intelligence assessments say it still remains the “small Syria” – Assad is focusing on control over the big cities and the connection between them and the concentrations of the Alawite population in northwest Syria. In the rest of the regions, the regime’s hold is almost not felt at all, and local rebel groups are still in control in the east, the Kurdish minority in the northeast, and Turkey in the region effectively annexed in the north of Syria.

The Syrian dictator – who since the chemical weapons affair in 2013 has murdered hundreds of thousands more of his own people using other means – is now investing most of his effort in restoring the sovereignty and governability of his regime in the sections of the country that are more important to him. Assad’s progress in slow: The economic situation in Syria is terrible, and the population is suffering from the combined results of war damage and COVID infection. As opposed to the statements made occasionally by the political leadership in Israel, the intelligence services are not exceedingly optimistic. The working assumption is that all the players are in Syria to stay.