Israel is heading into undeclared lockdown as number of COVID cases surge

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These are frightening times, almost the same as the first weeks of the coronavirus pandemic. The number of newly diagnosed COVID infections is skyrocketing, doctors are reporting constantly worsening overcrowding in the hospitals, many television reporters are broadcasting with very serious faces about the coming disaster. But still, it seems we are seeing only the tip of the iceberg.

The climbing numbers of virus carriers, most of whom are in very mild condition, has awfully little connection to the severity of the crisis. The most critical question concerns the number of patients hospitalized in serious condition – and that number, at least for the moment, is showing only a relatively moderate rise compared to the numbers in previous waves of the outbreak.

Prof. Eran Segal of the Weizmann Institute of Science estimated on Saturday that the percentage of omicron carriers in serious condition will reach about a fifth of the rate among delta carriers.

The reason for this is firstly the vaccinations, whose effectiveness against serious illness remains high, and, it seems, because of improved hospital treatment and community medicine – which this month, for the first time, included effective drugs against COVID. But the government and health system are still waiting to see whether the flood of new cases, which has only just begun, will be translated into intense overcrowding in the hospitals, such that they will near the point of collapse.

From here we can now look at what is happening in other countries, which are ahead of Israel in dealing with the omicron variant. According to reports, South Africa has passed the fifth wave of the coronavirus pandemic in reasonable shape, Britain is still a question mark – in London there seem to be expectations of a drop in the number of patients hospitalized – while the United States looks as if it is about to hit the wall with great force.

The difference in trends depends on the vaccinations, and, it seems, the extent of exposure to previous variants. The United States, with a relatively low percentage of vaccinated people and those getting a booster shot, could very well be in big trouble, compared to Britain.

The other big variable is the medical staff. After almost two years of a continuous crisis and limited staffing, the Israeli health system is coming into the omicron test exhausted. Even worse: For the first time it is trying to handle a combined wave of COVID and flu. And worse yet, a record number of medical staffers are expected to be kept out of action because of the disease, or because they were put in isolation.

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This is the main worry: that the record number of patients in serious condition will meet a minimal number of medical staffers up ahead. The forecasts talk about tens of thousands of new patients with COVID every day, starting this week already.

Such numbers will affect the economy too, and raise questions about the continued high level of essential services such as functioning supermarkets and transporting food and fuel. The relatively small amount of harm the omicron causes to most of those infected raises other questions, too: Is it still necessary to maintain long periods of isolation, or is it possible to allow asymptomatic people with the virus to work and maintain essential services?

The Israeli army is already preparing for such a situation and is shortening the isolation periods for soldiers who have been diagnosed with COVID. The Health Ministry is considering an arguably risky solution: allowing doctors who test positive for the coronavirus – but are asymptomatic – to continue working.

A nurse administers the fourth coronavirus vaccine in a Jerusalem hospital in January. Ohad Zwigenberg

For now, from a lack of choice, the testing policy has been changed completely. Experience from the past week points up the severe overloading of the system for producing results of the tests, whose number has jumped from some 150,000 a day to almost 300,000 a day. Waiting times for the results of PCR tests were 61 hours, while the institutional rapid antigen tests have simply disappeared without a trace.

Under these circumstances, as the original testing system breaks down, the switch to rapid home antigen tests for the lower-risk population has become the default. But the government has placed all its hopes on its citizens demonstrating responsibility – at a time when the public lost its patience a long time ago, has difficulty understanding the complicated instructions and is wondering how much good they are really doing – while the very reliability of the home tests is in doubt.

One issue, at least, requires an immediate solution: the high cost of the home tests, the enormous demand for which has led many stores and chains to charge excessive prices. This creates clear inequality between the upper and lower classes, and reduces the incentive to be tested. It adds to the disadvantages borne by poorer families, who have already been harmed more by the lockdowns and the period of economic crisis, and are unable to pay for alternatives such as babysitters and tutors.

The government needs to impose price controls, at the very least, if not to supply the tests for free, as is being done in Britain and Singapore. Health Minister Nitzan Horowitz said Sunday that approval for selling the test kits in supermarkets will lower their price.

The government, which wants to distance itself from its predecessor, is trying to avoid imposing another lockdown as long as possible. This is happening at the insistence of the Finance Ministry, which refuses to reopen the public coffers for compensation over lost income.

A class held outside, in Rehovot, on Sunday. Hadas Parush

But the pace of infection and the numbers in isolation is drawing the economy closer to an undeclared lockdown, within a week or two. The schools and preschools will empty out gradually, as the number of cases of infection rise. This is also what will happen in many businesses.

People are already justifiably limiting their activities outside the home, and are moving less essential meetings to Zoom. Risk management has been shifted from the government to the individual citizen. Some journalists are finding it hard to accept the new situation and are responding with emotional criticism of the government, claiming it has abandoned its citizens.

There are justifications for these accusations against the government: It is not clear why no significant limitations whatsoever have been placed on gatherings, and the conflicting instructions have sent the educational system into chaos. But it seems that at this stage of the crisis, and given the present numbers, Israel is discovering, like other countries, that it is hard to control the flood the omicron variant has brought.

One thing Prime Minister Naftali Bennett can do, nonetheless, is to meet the public’s expectations. Israel is facing a very powerful wave, but it is possible it could be shorter than its predecessors, and some forecasts say the situation could improve after it ends with the rise in herd immunity.

Given these circumstances, much more frequent communication with the public is needed – without the fearmongering that characterized the previous government – but at the same time providing an ongoing, transparent accounting of the state of the fight against the pandemic. This is not happening, and it just increases the public’s fears.