In Washington trip, Gantz to urge U.S. to pressure a newly vulnerable Iran

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Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz is set to meet U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin in Washington on Thursday to discuss increasing U.S. pressure on Iran, with Gantz intending to cite the Iranian nuclear program’s significant progress in recent months, as well as the widespread protests in Iran over economic distress.

Gantz is expected to discuss with his U.S. counterpart the so-called Plan B – steps the United Sates would take in case talks over the nuclear agreement fail, and increasing American sanctions on Iran that would impede the progress of its nuclear program. Gantz will also discuss with Austin continued cooperation in advancing joint defense arrangements between Israel, the United States and the Persian Gulf states against Iranian assaults.

According to information gathered in Israel, over the past year Iran and its proxies have carried out at least 10 assaults against various targets in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Iraq. At the same time Iran has continued to transfer strategic weapons to its proxies in Iraq and Yemen, along with a slowdown that Israel has observed in its transfer of weapons to Syria. The commander of the U.S. Central Command in the Middle East, Gen. Michael Corella, came to Israel this week as part of U.S. involvement in Operation Chariots of Fire, simulating a multi-front war.

The meeting with Austin was planned ahead, but the timing plays into Israel’s hands. On the eve of Gantz’s departure for the United States, he revealed information attesting to Iran’s dramatic progress in its military program: Iran is only weeks away from accumulating enough fissionable material for a first bomb and is in possession of about 60 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent. At the same time, Iran is working to complete construction and installation of 1,000 advanced centrifuges in its nuclear facilities, including a new installation near Natanz, and gathering know-how and experience in development, research, manufacture and operation of the centrifuges.

Israel has marked the dissent in Iran during the past few weeks over its faltering economy as Tehran’s soft underbelly, and as an opportunity to ratchet up financial sanctions as leverage on the regime to withdraw from its nuclear program. Over the past week, riots broke out in a number of large Iranian cities after the government decided to cut subsidies, leading to a rise in the cost of basic products like bread, cooking oil and milk products – in some cases by as much as 300 percent.

In a speech on Tuesday at Reichman University, Gantz called for lessons to be learned from the fighting in Ukraine and applied in Iran. “It is right to use economic, diplomatic and if necessary military might as early as possible, and perhaps in this way to prevent wars,” he said.

Although the U.S. government has reversed itself on a clear deadline for the end of the nuclear talks, Israel believes that there will be no choice but to stop the talks in the near future. The belief here is that the United States and its partners in the talks might take a unilateral step and perhaps even face off against Iran within a short time, due to concerns that it might continue to advance its nuclear program to a dangerous threshold. After a longer period of futile talks between the parties, the information Israel revealed over the past few days might lead to a blowout in the talks, or, less likely, to a softening of the Iranian position and a declaration that it is ready to accept international monitoring and restrict its nuclear program.

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The war in Ukraine is also expected to come up in the talks between Gantz and Austin on Thursday. Given the vague public statements by Prime Minister Naftali Bennett in recent months, Gantz is expected to make clear to Austin that Israel stands together with the United States in the policy it is leading against Russia.

On Wednesday, a few hours before Gantz met with U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, the Israeli Defense Ministry sent a first shipment to Ukraine of defensive equipment, including 2,000 helmets and 500 protective vests, which will be given to local emergency services and civilian organizations in Ukraine.