Partygate: what would make Tory MPs finally turn on Boris Johnson?

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While Boris Johnson seems safe for now from a leadership challenge, there has been inevitable speculation about what revelations within the imminent Sue Gray report could tempt more Tory MPs to send formal letters seeking his removal.

Here are five potential scenarios – and the one to five risk rating for the PM.

The best outcome for Johnson’s chances would be that Gray repeats the same general criticisms of the No 10 culture seen in her interim report, with blame largely placed on officials, and that if there are any photos, they are the same ones already published by ITV News, from the 13 November 2020 gathering. Tory MPs might tut, but they would also mainly shrug.

Risk rating: ?

Gray is not expected to publish many, if any, actual photographs of illicit parties, in part because the report will not identify any junior officials. But it would be awkward for Johnson if one not yet seen was included, along with corroborating details, for example – as described by some people who attended – confirming that Johnson instigated the 13 November leaving drinks for his then head of communications, Lee Cain, poured drinks and made a speech.

Risk rating: ? ?

There has been understandable focus on the 13 November gathering, and on the birthday party for Johnson in June 2020, for which he was fined. But Tory MPs could become twitchy if other events are brought to the foreground, for example an alleged party in Johnson’s Downing Street flat on the same evening that Cain left. On an optimistic note for Johnson, Gray is a civil servant, and is expected to focus more on process and generalities than specifics.

Risk rating: ? ? ?

This is where it becomes really tricky for the PM. The interim report did not blame Johnson personally, speaking only in general terms about leadership failures inside No 10. Gray’s full report could set out, whether explicitly or by inference, the idea that as prime minister he could and should have acted to stop the party culture that existed inside No 10 during lockdown. An official narrative portraying Johnson as complicit in the lawbreaking or, at best, an ineffectual bystander, would not be good news for Tory MPs. Along with the photos we have already seen, his supporters would find it hard to hold the line …

Risk rating: ? ? ? ?

The biggest threat to Johnson is the idea that he deliberately misled parliament when he said, incorrectly and several times, that no rules were broken in No 10. His defence is that this was his sincere belief at the time, and intent to deceive is hard to prove. But a potential smoking gun that could prove his undoing would be an email, text, WhatsApp or other document emerged showing the PM realised at the time that one or more event was primarily social, and thus illicit. There has not been even a hint of a rumour about any such a thing linked directly to Johnson, so it seems unlikely. But it is one of the few revelations that could see him ousted by the MPs who have so far held their noses.

Risk rating: ? ? ? ? ?