Xi Jinping’s Talking Points in Threatening Cross-Strait Peace: Experts

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China’s leader Xi Jinping spent two hours reading his address at the opening of the 20th national meeting of the rubber-stamp legislature on Oct. 16. Experts in Taiwan said, judging by the content of Xi’s remarks, besides being repetitive and self-praising, he is the “Chief Accelerator” in speeding up the Party’s demise.

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) holds its national meeting every five years, with Party representatives at all levels attending, to conclude works of the past five years, finalize upcoming policies for the nation, and most importantly, decide the Party chairman and his top echelon—also the focus of the international community.

To analyze the possible power struggle staged at the current meeting in Beijing, and its meaning to world security, the Taipei-based think tank, Institute for National Policy Research, held a forum on “Focus, Observation, and Analysis of the CCP’s 20th National Meeting” on the 17th.

Participants included observers, academics, researchers, and experts in cross-strait relations.

Meaningless Content

Yaita Akio, a journalist who was stationed in Beijing in 2007, is the director of Japan daily newspaper Sankei Shimbun’s Taipei branch.

Judging from his past experience as a journalist in Beijing, Akio said the CCP adopted the most severe information blockade measures of this meeting he has ever seen.

China’s leader Xi Jinping waves as he arrives for the opening session of the 20th Chinese Communist Party Congress in Beijing on October 16, 2022. (Noel Celis / AFP via Getty Images)

“Especially [the fact] that the possible top echelon’s arrangement is still a secret. It shows that Chinese society has regressed to the Cultural Revolution period,” he said.

Akio commented that Xi evaded important issues by filling his political report with meaningless content.

“How can the 100th anniversary of the CCP be regarded as a political achievement?” he said.

Because the massive middle class became poor, and yet Xi touted that poverty is alleviated, Akio said, “Xi is encountering big trouble with his governance.”

Akio believes Xi will no doubt remain as the Party leader for a third term, even though he dodged three main issues that everyone is concerned about. Xi’s report gave no direction on how the CCP will respond to the intensified U.S.-China conflict, the economic and social crisis inside China due to the zero-COVID policy, and the ever increasing support of Taiwan’s democracy and sovereignty in the international arena, according to Akio’s analysis.

“Foreign relations, pandemic prevention, and the Taiwan issue, are the three time bombs that will hit the CCP hard,” he said.

Beijing Is Anxious

Hsien-Chao Chang, Director of Institute of China and Asia-Pacific Studies, National Sun Yat-sen University, indicated that Xi’s report heavily used the word “security,” suggesting the high anxiety of the regime.

He believes Xi will officially enter his lifelong tenure, and the factional struggle within the Party will eventually subside as Xi remains in power.

“The 20th national meeting is the ‘Xi Jinping Year One’ meeting,” he said.

He believes Taiwan will be faced with a pressing national matter because Xi said in his address that he insists on resolving the Taiwan question by reunification.

Police officers check the identification cards of people visiting Tiananmen Gate ahead of China’s 20th Communist Party Congress in Beijing on October 13, 2022. (Noel Celis/AFP via Getty Images)

The Succession Struggle

Wang Hao, an analyst in politics and international relations, said that Xi winning the third leadership term will realize Xi’s ambition to rule for life and consolidate his power in the Party.

However, he will still have the issue of a successor, as whether or not he will promote his daughter in the political circle is yet to be seen.

Therefore, when it’s time to appoint a successor, the struggle between the dictator and the successor is often the beginning of the nightmare. “Xi will never shirk his fate in the succession struggle,” Wang said.

Xi is Weak

Shih-Ping Fan, a professor at the Department of East Asian Studies, National Taiwan Normal University, believes that the propaganda and touting in Xi’s report showed he’s “obviously tough on the surface” [that is, putting on a show of strength he doesn’t have].

He believes Xi is both powerless and struggling over the Taiwan problem.

“Xi’s ‘one country, two systems’ is a no sale in Taiwan,” Fang said.

Xi said that no “outside forces” should intervene in the Taiwan question; but “Xi’s exactly the one who pushed the Taiwan issue to become an international problem,” Fang explained.

Pressing International Isolation

Cheng-Yi Lin, a researcher at the Institute of European and American Studies, Academia Sinica, said that Xi made an unprecedented move by highlighting “national security” in his speech.

Xi dedicated an entire section in his address to elaborate on “Modernizing China’s National Security System and Capacity and Safeguarding National Security and Social Stability.”

Lin believes that Xi is deeply concerned with the pressing international isolation, especially when the Biden administration is improving its relationship with the European countries.

Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen (top C) attends a ceremony to mark the island’s National Day in front of the Presidential Office in Taipei on October 10, 2022. (Sam Yeh / AFP via Getty Images)

Many CCP Agents in Taiwan

Yujen Kuo is the Executive Director of the Institute for National Policy Research.

Referring to outside forces, Kuo believes that Xi was pointing at three main concerns: First, the final version of the Taiwan Policy Act of 2022 that’s yet to be enacted; Second, Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen visiting the United States before she concluded her term should set the tone for U.S.-Taiwan relations; Third, military aid to Taiwan is specified in the U.S. Taiwan Policy Act of 2022.

Kuo said the CCP will continue releasing its list of sanctions on “Taiwan independence” diehards with Xi mentioning that he “opposed separatist activities aimed at Taiwan independence” in his address.

The main purpose was to force more political pledges from Taiwanese entrepreneurs and artists in the entertainment industry to sing about “peaceful reunification,” he said.

He warned that when Xi vowed to “give firm support to patriots in Taiwan” in his address, it meant that more CCP agents will be cultivated in Taiwan.

Finally, Kuo advised that the Taiwan government should be aware of the challenge when Xi touted maintaining “the initiative and the ability to steer in cross-Strait relations,” as he really meant the CCP will intensify unilateral measures against Taiwan.

Internationally, for instance, Kuo worried that more Taiwanese will be extradited to China, which would make it difficult for the Taiwan government to respond.

Wu Minzhou contributed to this report.