Denmark election: Social Democrats lead but no majority, exit poll suggests

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Prime minister Mette Frederiksen’s Social Democrats have finished first in Denmark‘s election, exit polls have suggested, but neither the ruling left or rival right bloc are heading for a majority, setting up her predecessor and his new centrist party as kingmakers.

An exit poll by public broadcaster DR on Tuesday predicted that Frederiksen, who was forced to call the vote when an allied party withdrew support, had led the Social Democrats to a score of about 23%, nearly twice that of the second-placed Liberals.

But the prime minister’s “red bloc” of left-leaning parties was projected to fall short of the 90 seats required for a majority in the 179-seat parliament, with 85 seats. The opposition “blue bloc” of rightist parties also looked set to fail, returning 73 MPs.

If confirmed, the result could make Lars L?kke Rasmussen – the former centre-right prime minister beaten by Frederiksen in 2019 – the kingmaker, with the 17 MPs projected for his new centrist party, the Moderates, holding the balance of power.

The result could be the first centrist coalition bridging Denmark’s traditional left-right divide since the 1970s. “We’re hoping for a government with the Liberals [Rasmussen’s former party], the Social Democrats and the Moderates,” Jakob Engel-Schmidt, the centrist party’s deputy leader, said after the exit polls.

Analysts have warned negotiations to form a new government could take weeks or even months, with both blocs potentially seeking to outbid each other to secure Rasmussen’s backing and, with it, a parliamentary majority.

Frederiksen had hoped for a vote of confidence in her handling of the Covid-19 pandemic and in her steady leadership in the face of high energy prices, rampant inflation and mounting insecurity fulled by Russia’s war on Ukraine.

But the election became a battle for the centre between the prime minister, who said she wanted to form a broad left-right coalition to pilot the country through tough times, and Rasmussen, who has said his aim is to create “a new political situation”.

His party, launched in June, surged into third place behind the Social Democrats and the Liberals.

Rasmussen, prime minister from 2009 to 2011 and again from 2015 to 2019, is expected to use his post-election clout not just to engineer a broad-spectrum coalition but may even argue that he should be the next prime minister.

He insisted on Tuesday that the premiership was “not in my mind”, but polls indicate voters would prefer him over right-wing candidates Jakob Ellemann-Jensen of the Liberal party and S?ren Pape Poulsen of the Conservatives.

Frederiksen has hinted at a senior ministerial role for Rasmussen in exchange for his party’s support, and said she is willing to discuss healthcare reforms, one of his key concerns.

Ellemann-Jensen called for Rasmussen to align with his former colleagues on the right. “We will … do our outmost to be the bridge, that’s the whole idea behind this,” Rasmussen said after casting his ballot in central Copenhagen.

Frederiksen won praise for navigating Denmark through the pandemic but her popularity has slipped, partly over a decision to cull the country’s entire captive mink population of 15m for fear of a Covid-19 variant moving to humans.

A parliamentary commission said in June that the government had lacked legal justification for the cull, which devastated Europe’s largest fur exporter, and that it had made “grossly misleading” statements when ordering the sector to be shut down.

Denmark’s stricter immigration policies have slashed support for the far-right Danish People’s party, but a new party formed by the former Liberal immigration minister Inger St?jberg was projected to score 8% and, together, the three parties of the populist, anti-immigration right could win 15% of the vote.

A reliable preliminary outcome was due to be announced early on Wednesday morning. In total, 14 parties were running, with four seats reserved for the overseas autonomous territories of Greenland and the Faroe Islands.