Meet the most vulnerable House members from each party who could be sent packing on Election Day

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Four years after the House of Representatives flipped from GOP to Democratic control, Republicans are poised to win back the chamber’s majority in the midterm elections.

National Republican Congressional Committee chair Rep.Tom Emmer emphasized this week in a Fox News interview that he is confident “we’re going to make some history” and reiterated his prediction he has been making all cycle long: that Republicans are “going to be in the majority.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi sees a different outcome, saying a week and a half ago in a CBS News interview that House Democrats “feel very confident” they will hold onto the majority they won in the 2018 midterms.

While the GOP lost control of the White House and the Senate majority in the 2020 elections, House Republicans bucked expectations and took a big bite out of the House Democrats’ sizable majority. Republicans need a net gain of just five seats in the 435-member chamber in next week’s elections to win back the House majority.

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Democrats are facing historical headwinds — the party that wins the White House traditionally loses more than 25 House seats in the ensuing midterm elections — and a very rough political climate fueled by record inflation, soaring crime and a border crisis, and these are accentuated by President Biden’s rebounding, but still underwater, approval ratings.

Democratic prospects of bucking historical precedent and retaining their majority soared over the summer, thanks in part to declining gas prices, a slew of congressional legislative victories and a surge in the importance of abortion as an issue in the wake of the blockbuster move by the Supreme Court’s conservative majority to overturn the landmark Roe v. Wade ruling. However, the apparent fading of abortion as a top voter concern and a relentless GOP spotlight on record inflation and crime has deflated Democrats’ hopes the past two months. Both sides, in recent weeks, have dished out big bucks into Democratic-leaning districts that were once thought to be safe.

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Pointing to the surge in the GOP’s electoral fortunes that polls have indicated over the past six weeks in the battle for the House majority, Emmer touted that “there were 18 races that we [NRCC] were playing in as of the end of last week that Biden won by double digits.”

NRCC spokesman Mike Berg was also bullish about the Republican incumbents who face tight re-election races. “We are confident our battle-tested incumbents in tough races will come out ahead on Election Day. Democrats cannot say the same about their group of vulnerable Pelosi puppets,” Berg said.

However, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesperson Chris Taylor predicted that “Democrats’ mainstream agenda of lowering prices, investing in America to create jobs, and protecting freedoms will prevail on Election Day.”

The latest Fox News Power Rankings forecast indicates Republicans taking control of the House with a 19–seat majority, or 236 total seats. That is a gain of 23 seats compared to the number they hold in the current Congress. According to the forecast, the Republicans could end up winning as many as 249 seats or as little at 223.

Here’s a look at the nine House members running for re-election who may be sent packing next week.

Five Democrats at risk of losing seats in the House

Rep. Angie Craig, Minnesota 02 — The two-term lawmaker represents a district that includes most of the southern suburbs of the Twin Cities as well as some outlying rural areas. She is being challenged by Republican Tyler Kistner, in a rematch of their 2020 showdown. The race is considered one of the most expensive House elections this cycle.

Rep. Elaine Luria, Virginia 02 — The Navy veteran, who spent most of her two decades in the service assigned to Navy ships as she rose to the rank of commander, is being challenged by Republican state Sen. Jen Kiggans, who served as a U.S. Navy helicopter pilot, in a southeastern Virginia district anchored by Virginia Beach and parts of Norfolk.

Rep. Tom Malinowski, New Jersey 07 — The two-term congressman, who served on the National Security Council during former President Clinton’s administration and as a deputy Secretary of State during former President Obama’s administration, is running for re-election in a traditionally red district that became even more Republican friendly due to redistricting. He is being challenged for a second straight cycle by Tom Kean Jr,. a former longtime state lawmaker who is the son of popular former New Jersey Gov. Tom Kean.

Rep. Cindy Axne, Iowa 03 — The two-term lawmaker represents a district that covers most of the southwestern part of Iowa and is anchored by Des Moines, the capital and state’s largest city. She is being challenged by state Sen. Zach Nunn, a former Air Force officer and member of the Iowa Air National Guard.

Rep. Tom O’Halleran, Arizona 02 — The former Chicago police officer, who later became a member of the Chicago Board of Trade, is a three-term congressman who represents Arizona 01, a large district that includes much of Arizona outside the Phoenix and Tucson metropolitan areas. Due to redistricting, O’Halleran is running for re-election in the state’s 2nd Congressional District, which has become more Republican friendly, against GOP nominee Eli Crane, a former Navy SEAL.

Some Republicans face tough races to keep their seats in the House

Rep. Steve Chabot, Ohio 01 — The Republican lawmaker has represented the Cincinnati area district in the southwest corner of Ohio for all but two years since first winning the seat in 1994. However, thanks in part to redistricting, Chabot is fighting for his political life as he faces a challenge from Democratic nominee Greg Landsman, a Cincinnati city councilor.

Rep. David Valadao, California 22 — The dairy farmer and four-term congressman is being challenged by Democratic state assemblyman Rudy Salas. The district is located in California’s San Joaquin Valley, covering parts of Fresno and Tulare counties.

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Rep. Yvette Herrell, New Mexico 02 — The realtor and first term lawmaker is the first Republican Native woman elected to Congress. The only GOP member of New Mexico’s congressional delegation is being challenged by Democratic Las Cruces City Councilor Gabe Vasquez.

Rep. Don Bacon, Nebraska 02 — The former Air Force brigadier general and three-term GOP congressman represents the Omaha area district. He’s being challenged by educator and Democratic State Senator Tony Vargas.