Control of House remains unknown as Democrats beat midterm expectations

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As ballots continued to be counted across the US on Wednesday, control of the House of Representatives remained up for grabs after Democrats’ better-than-expected performance in the midterm elections. Although Democrats remained hopeful about keeping the Senate, with the victory of John Fetterman in Pennsylvania severely narrowing Republicans’ path to regaining a majority, organizers prepared to mobilize for a likely Georgia runoff race next month that could determine the majority.

Republicans had been heavily favored to take the House heading into Tuesday’s elections, but the widespread gains that many forecasters had predicted failed to materialize. Instead, vulnerable Democratic incumbents such as Abigail Spanberger of Virginia and Elissa Slotkin of Michigan held on, keeping the party’s hopes of House control alive hours after polls closed.

The state of play defied House Republican leader Kevin McCarthy’s bullish remarks delivered early Wednesday morning, where he spoke at a Washington event that had been billed as a victory party.

“When you wake up tomorrow, we will be in the majority, and Nancy Pelosi will be in the minority,” McCarthy said.

That has not come to pass, as toss-up House races in states such as Nevada and Pennsylvania appeared to be slipping out of Republicans’ grasp. But McCarthy could still ascend to the speakership in January if Republican candidates hold on to their narrow leads in New York, where the party appeared poised to flip several seats.

The redistricting battles that Republicans won earlier in the election cycle took on new significance as House results started to come in. In New York, Democratic legislators tried and failed to enact a congressional map that would have been more favorable for their candidates, creating an opening for Republicans. Democrats also lost at least four House seats in Florida, after Republican legislators aggressively gerrymandered the map there.

Despite those hurdles, the House speaker, Nancy Pelosi, expressed optimism about the election results in the early hours of Wednesday morning.

“While many races remain too close to call, it is clear that House Democratic members and candidates are strongly outperforming expectations across the country,” Pelosi said. “As states continue to tabulate the final results, every vote must be counted as cast.”

The results of the most hotly contested Senate races were also giving many Republicans heartburn on Wednesday. After Fetterman was declared the winner over Republican Mehmet Oz, all eyes turned to the Senate elections in Arizona, Georgia and Nevada.

Senator Mark Kelly maintained his lead over Republican Blake Masters in Arizona, while Kelly’s colleague from Nevada, Catherine Cortez Masto, had fallen behind her opponent. But hundreds of thousands of ballots remain uncounted in those races, and election officials have warned it could take days to determine winners.

In Georgia, Senator Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker appeared headed to a December runoff, a race that could determine control of the upper chamber depending on other states’ results. Warnock led Walker by roughly one point as of Wednesday morning, but the Democratic incumbent remained below the 50% threshold needed to avoid a runoff.

Overall, the night shaped up poorly for election deniers and candidates endorsed by Donald Trump. Although dozens of incumbents who challenged the 2020 presidential results did win, election deniers in key gubernatorial and secretary of state races were on track for defeat. Candidates like Tudor Dixon of Michigan and Doug Mastriano, both of whom received Trump’s endorsement, were defeated by sitting Democratic governors.

The news could not have been well received by Trump, who is expected to announce another presidential campaign as early as next week. Even more worrisome for Trump, the Florida governor, Ron DeSantis, who has been frequently named as a potential presidential candidate, easily cruised to reelection. DeSantis’ roughly 20-point victory in Trump’s current home state only intensified chatter about his 2024 plans.

Even as many races remained too close to call on Wednesday, many eyes were already starting to turn to the next election season.