Russia-Ukraine war live: Kyiv wary of Moscow’s retreat from Kherson; US general estimates 100,000 Russian military casualties

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Maksym Kozytskyi, governor of Lviv, has said on Telegram that last night passed quietly in the region, with just one air alarm for an attack that didn’t materialise.

In the FT this morning, Henry Foy, Roman Olearchyk and Felicia Schwartz offer this analysis of the situation as it develops in Kherson, writing:

The colourful billboards erected by Russia’s occupying forces in the Ukrainian city of Kherson boasted that it would be a Russian city “forever”. In reality, that lasted just more than eight months.

[But] even if Kherson is evacuated quickly, it is very unlikely to spark a rout of Russian lines. By retreating from the city, which sits on the northwestern (or right) bank of the Dnipro river close to its Black Sea delta, Russia aims to reinforce its defences on the other side of the river, where it has been building defensive lines for weeks, reinforced by natural defences such as canals and wet, marshy ground.

[The retreat] would put three important roads that lie on the land bridge and a number of Russian logistic sites and ammunition dumps within range of Ukraine’s western-supplied high-precision rocket system — threatening a critical supply route that has fuelled Russia’s war effort from the peninsula. The Kherson province located on the right bank of the Dnipro river is “strategically important from a military standpoint as it gives us firepower control of the roads from Crimea used as supply lines by the Russians”, said Serhiy Kuzan, an adviser at Ukraine’s defence ministry. “It will be a very big blow to the Russian forces.”

Even if the conflict in south-east Ukraine sinks into a stalemate over winter, as some western officials have suggested, Kherson’s recapture will give Kyiv leverage as it lobbies western governments to step up supplies of arms and ammunition, and financial support.

Isobel Koshiw reports for the Guardian from Kyiv:

There have been diverging reactions to Russia’s announcement on Wednesday that it will withdraw its troops from the right bank of Kherson region – in what would be another defeat for its forces.

In a televised meeting of Russia’s top military brass, Russia’s defence minister Sergei Shoigu gave the order to retreat from the right bank.

Several prominent western military analysts judge that the Russian announcement is genuine, prompted by Russia’s desire to save some of its best troops and equipment and to avoid a repeat of its chaotic retreat from Kharkiv region in September.

US president Joe Biden said at a press briefing that he had expected the decision for “some time” and that the withdrawal reflected “real problems” with the Russian army.

But Ukraine’s authorities appear to be sceptical of Russia’s move.

Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in his nightly address on Wednesday that “the enemy does not bring us gifts” and “doesn’t just leave”. Zelenskiy said that Kherson and other occupied areas would be retaken by Ukraine but as a result of Ukrainian military efforts, “we need to fight our way.”

The head of Ukraine’s presidential administration Andriy Yermak implied that Russia was trying to trick Ukraine in a tweet late on Wednesday. “Someone thinks they’re very cunning, but we’re one step ahead,” wrote Yermak.

Similarly, Zelenskiy adviser, Mykhailo Podalyak, tweeted late on Wednesday that Ukraine saw no evidence Russia would leave without a fight and that Russian troops were still present in Kherson city. “Ukraine is liberating territories based on intelligence, not on staged TV statements.”

For several months, Ukraine has been pursuing a campaign to force Russian troops to withdraw from the right bank by targeting their supplies and supply lines, (such as ammunition depots and bridges), behind the frontlines. Kherson holds huge strategic and symbolic value for both sides.

The Guardian’s defence and security editor Dan Sabbagh offers this analysis of events of the last 24 hours, writing: As Russia tries to dig in, Ukraine’s challenge will be to repeat its victory in Kherson

Dmytro Zhyvytskyi, governor of Sumy, has said that in his region “the night passed calmly, without enemy shelling”.

Italy has not ruled out new measures to provide further military support for Ukraine but these are not on table at the moment, its defence minister told Il Messaggero daily in an interview published, according to reports from Reuters.

Guido Crosetto also said he would reiterate Italy’s commitment to Nato and its support for Kyiv in a meeting in Rome with the alliance’s chief Jens Stoltenberg later in the day.

Russia’s decision to withdraw troops from near the southern Ukrainian city of Kherson is a positive step, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdo?an said this morning.

Reuters reports Erdo?an was responding to a question about prospects of talks between Moscow and Kyiv at a news conference before departing on a visit to Uzbekistan.

This is Martin Belam taking over the live blog in London. I will be with you for the next few hours.

Russian president, Vladimir Putin, may take part in an upcoming summit of the G20 group of nations in Bali via video link, Russian state news agency RIA said on Thursday, citing the Russian embassy in Indonesia.

“The format of Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin’s participation is being worked out,” the agency quoted a diplomat as saying. “It is possible that he will take part in the summit via video conference.”

Earlier, an Indonesian government official told Reuters that foreign minister Sergei Lavrov would represent Putin at the summit, with the Russian president due to join one of the meetings online.

Vladimir Putin will not attend a gathering of leaders from the G20 nations in Bali next week, according to an Indonesian government official.

As G20 host, Indonesia has resisted pressure from western countries and Ukraine to withdraw its invitation to Putin from the leaders summit and expel Russia from the group over the war in Ukraine, saying it does not have the authority to do so without consensus among members.

The US reportedly will not give Ukraine advanced drones in order to avoid an escalation with Russia, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Kyiv has pleaded for the weaponry for months. The Biden administration’s decision reflects the limit of the kinds of weaponry Washington is willing to provide for Ukraine’s defence, the WSJ noted. A report published late on Wednesday read:

The Pentagon declined the request based on concerns that providing the Gray Eagle MQ-1C drones could escalate the conflict and signal to Moscow that the US was providing weapons that could target positions inside Russia, US officials and other people familiar with the decision said.”

Russia’s loss of Kherson’s west bank will likely prevent its forces from achieving their strategic aspiration of a land bridge reaching Odesa, according to the UK Ministry of Defence.

“With limited crossing points, Russian forces will be vulnerable in crossing the Dnipro River,” the latest British intelligence report reads.

It is likely that Russia’s withdrawal will take place over several days with defensive positions and artillery fires covering withdrawing forces, the ministry added.

America’s top general and chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, estimates that Russia’s military had seen more than 100,000 of its soldiers killed and wounded in Ukraine, adding Kyiv’s armed forces has “probably” suffered a similar level of casualties in the war.

Mark Milley’s remarks offer the highest US estimate of casualties to date in the nearly nine-month-old conflict. The Guardian could not immediately confirm his estimates.

Milley said the conflict so far had turned anywhere from 15 million to 30 million Ukrainians into refugees, and killed probably 40,000 Ukrainian civilians.

You’re looking at well over 100,000 Russian soldiers killed and wounded. Same thing probably on the Ukrainian side. A lot of human suffering,” Milley said.

Asked about prospects for diplomacy in Ukraine, Milley noted that the early refusal to negotiate in the first world war compounded human suffering and led to millions more casualties.

“So when there’s an opportunity to negotiate, when peace can be achieved … seize the moment,” Milley told the Economic Club of New York on Wednesday.

On the face of it, Russia’s sheepish yet televised announcement that it will abandon Kherson city and points west of the Dnipro represents a remarkable victory for Ukraine and a sophisticated military strategy.

It has taken a careful three-month campaign to force the Kremlin to conclude it cannot hang on.

Russia has been preparing its exit for a month now, moving command and control across the river and at least some of its experienced forces.

A Ukrainian victory in in the city, one of the main objectives of Kyiv’s southern offensive, would be widely seen as a significant blow to the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, only weeks after a high-profile ceremony in Moscow in which he announced the “forever” annexation of the Kherson region, along with three others.

A Ukrainian liberation of the area would also pose fresh military headaches for Russia’s military commanders, bringing some parts of the Russian-occupied Crimea within range of Ukrainian Himars rocket systems, as well as threatening Russian operations around Melitopol and Mariupol.

It also marks a personal defeat for General Surovikin, a notorious hardline air force officer, who was appointed the first overall commander of Russian forces in Ukraine in October to turn around Russia’s failing war against Ukraine.

Now, Ukraine’s apparent victory could not be more timely as Americans and Europeans worry about high energy costs ultimately caused by the war. The challenge for Kyiv will be to repeat it against Russians who are desperately trying to dig in.

In case you missed this earlier, video of Russian defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, emerged on Wednesday showing the official giving orders to the country’s troops to leave Ukraine’s city of Kherson.

As details of Russian troop movements remain opaque in Kherson, some Ukrainian senior officials have cautioned against celebrating too soon until a fuller picture of the situation on the ground becomes clear.

In his national address on Wednesday night, Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged restraint despite “a lot of joy in the media space today”, saying “The enemy does not bring us gifts, does not make ‘gestures of goodwill’. We fight our way up.”

“And when you are fighting, you must understand that every step is always resistance from the enemy, it is always the loss of the lives of our heroes.

“Therefore, we move very carefully, without emotions, without unnecessary risk. In the interests of the liberation of our entire land and so that the losses are as small as possible.”

Mykhailo Podolyak, a senior adviser to Zelenskiy, said in a statement to Reuters: “Until the Ukrainian flag is flying over Kherson, it makes no sense to talk about a Russian withdrawal.”

He later tweeted: “We see no signs that Russia is leaving Kherson without a fight.”

Oleksiy Arestovych, another senior presidential aide, said Moscow’s intentions remained unclear. “They are moving out but not as much as would be taking place if it was a full pullout or regrouping,” he said in a video posted on Telegram on Wednesday night.

“And for the moment, we don’t know their intentions – will they engage in fighting with us and will they try to hold the city of Kherson? They are moving very slowly,” he added.

The Russian defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, has ordered the country’s troops to leave an area including Ukraine’s city of Kherson, the only regional capital captured by Moscow since the February invasion.

In televised comments, Gen Sergei Surovikin, overall commander of the war, said he had recommended the withdrawal of Russian troops from the west bank of the Dnipro River, citing logistical difficulties.

Kherson cannot be fully supplied and function. Russia did everything possible to ensure the evacuation of the inhabitants of Kherson,” Surovikin told Shoigu.

We will save the lives of our soldiers and fighting capacity of our units. Keeping them on the right [western] bank is futile. Some of them can be used on other fronts,” Surovikin said.

The order to retreat came as Ukrainian forces pressed their attack on Russian positions on the western side of the river, including around the key town of Snihurivka.

While the move had been anticipated to prevent Russian forces being encircled by Ukraine on the western side of the river, the bald admission by Surovikin that Russian forces could not operate effectively comes despite recent efforts by the Kremlin to reinforce the Kherson front at the cost of the giving up large parts of Ukraine’s east.

Hello and welcome back to the Guardian’s live coverage of the war in Ukraine. I’m Samantha Lock and I’ll be bringing you all the latest developments as they unfold over the next few hours.

The Russian defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, has ordered the country’s troops to leave an area including Ukraine’s city of Kherson, the only regional capital captured by Moscow since the February invasion. A Ukrainian victory in the city, one of the main objectives of Kyiv’s southern offensive, would be widely seen as a significant blow to the Russian president, Vladimir Putin.

Meanwhile America’s top general and chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Mark Milley estimates that Russia’s military had seen more than 100,000 of its soldiers killed and wounded in Ukraine, adding Kyiv’s armed forces has “probably” suffered a similar level of casualties in the war.

For any updates or feedback you wish to share, please feel free to get in touch via email or Twitter.

If you have just joined us, here are all the latest developments:

The Russian defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, has ordered troops to leave Ukraine’s southern city of Kherson, the only regional capital Moscow had captured since the invasion began. The announcement marks one of Russia’s most significant retreats and a potential turning point in the war. General Sergei Surovikin, in overall command of the war, called it a “very difficult decision”.

While Russia did not formally declare it was abandoning Kherson, all signs point to a Moscow retreat. “Kherson cannot be fully supplied and function,” Surovikin said. “The decision to defend on the left bank of the Dnieper is not easy, at the same time we will save the lives of our military.” Russia had been preparing its exit for the last month, moving command and control across the river.

Ukrainian victory in Kherson will be a significant blow to the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, only weeks after a high-profile ceremony in Moscow in which he announced the “forever” annexation of the Kherson region along with three other regions.

Ukraine reacted with caution, saying some Russian forces were still in Kherson and additional Russian manpower was being sent. “Until the Ukrainian flag is flying over Kherson, it makes no sense to talk about a Russian withdrawal,” said Mykhailo Podolyak, a senior adviser to the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy.

Joe Biden said Russia’s withdrawal of troops from Kherson was “evidence” that its military had “real problems”. During a White House press conference on Wednesday, the US president said he “knew for some time” it would happen.

The Nato secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, said Russia’s retreat was “part of an overall pattern” demonstrating that Moscow “has absolutely lost the momentum”. “But we should not underestimate Russia, they still have capabilities,” he told Sky News. “We have seen the drones, we have seen the missile attacks. It shows that Russia can still inflict a lot of damage.”

The deputy head of the Russian-installed administration in the Kherson region died in a car crash, state news agencies reported, citing local Russian-backed officials. Kirill Stremousov, previously an anti-vaccine blogger and political marginal, emerged as one of the most prominent public faces of the Russian occupation of Ukraine. Putin posthumously decorated Stremousov with the Order of Courage, the Kremlin said on Wednesday.

Senior UN officials were planning to meet members of a high-level Russian delegation in Geneva on Friday to discuss extending the Ukraine grain deal, a UN spokesperson said. “They will continue ongoing consultations in support of the efforts by the secretary general Ant?nio Guterres on the full implementation of the two agreements signed on 22 July in Istanbul,” the spokesperson said.

Jens Stoltenberg said Vladimir Putin made “several huge mistakes” when he invaded, including underestimating Nato’s ability to support Ukraine.

The Russian foreign ministry said Moscow had contact with US officials from time to time, and confirmed there would soon be US-Russia consultations on the New Start nuclear arms reduction treaty, the last remaining arms control agreement between the world’s two largest nuclear powers.