As results come in for the 2022 US midterm elections, it is becoming increasingly clear that it will not be a “red-wave election” — a massive swing to the Republicans.
There are several factors in the result. The novelty of Trump has worn off. Gen-Z voters (born 1997 to 2012) have shirked the trend of the youth vote being turned off and women have been energised by the striking down of Roe vs Wade by the Supreme Court. President Joe Biden’s concerns about the threat to democracy, exemplified by the 6 January insurrection and election denial, also hit home, even though his own approval rating is poor.
What is the evidence that Trumpism has peaked, besides his loss of the 2020 presidential election? In midterms where a president’s Gallup approval rating is below 50%, the average number of house seats lost by the president’s party is 37. On election day, Biden’s approval rating was about 40%. So you would expect the Republicans to do very well in the House of Representatives — although the Senate is not as consistent in this regard. The US Senate is different in that only about a third of members are up for election at a time because they have six-year terms, whereas the entire House is re-elected every two years.
Although counts are not final, it appears that a result in the region of 213 Democrats to 222 Republicans in the House is likely, a loss of nine seats by the Democrats.
That the Democrats appear to be doing better than is typical for midterms under an unpopular president is best explained by the effect of Trump. Wars can create a rally-to-the-flag effect but the US is only involved in Ukraine in supplying equipment and intelligence, so that is unlikely to be a major factor. Looking at results where Trump-endorsed candidates have run is instructive.
One of the most dramatic was flipping the Senate seat in Pennsylvania, where John Fetterman beat Trump favourite Mehmet Oz. That result tipped the discussion from whether the Democrats would lose their slim majority (both parties control 50 Senate seats but the vice-president has a casting vote) to whether they would retain control of the Senate by a bigger margin. Several close races remain outstanding but it is likely that the Democrats will be ahead with 51 senators, with 52 possible.
A number of state governorships have also been taken (some tentatively as the count progresses) by Democrats against Trump favourites including Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Kansas.
In the House, Colorado’s Lauren Boebert, a far-right gun fan, is behind in the count although enough votes remain uncounted that she could still win. In a Michigan congressional district, Trump-endorsed candidate John Gibbs, who ousted one of the few Republicans who voted to impeach Trump, Peter Meijer, lost to Democrat Hillary Scholten — the first time this seat has been held by the Democrats in 30 years.
That’s not to say that no Trump-endorsed candidates won: in Ohio, Republican candidate JD Vance is ahead — although this is not a gain for the party. In Georgia, although Democratic senator Ralph Warnock is ahead of his Trump-backed opponent Herschel Walker (accused of opposing abortion unless he is responsible for an unwanted pregnancy) but in Georgia a candidate needs to top 50% to win, so this one will head for a run-off election in December.
At time of writing, it appears that both sides have 48 Senate seats in the bag; in addition, Arizona is likely to go Democratic. The Democrats are ahead in Nevada and Georgia and the Republicans in Wisconsin. Alaska has a preferential voting system (instant run-off) so if no one gets over 50%, the lowest-scoring candidate drops out and the second choices on their ballots are counted. Two Republicans are in the contest and since neither will get over 50%, an instant run-off will ensue with the Democrat on 10% dropping out. This will probably result in the incumbent, Lisa Murkowski, one of the less loopy Republicans, winning over Trump-endorsed Kelly Tshibaka.
Broadly speaking, it has not been a great election for Trump endorsees and election deniers. On the other hand, Florida governor Ron DeSantis won with a margin of nearly 20%. Trump has already warned him not to run for president — shaping up the 2024 campaign season for a fight for control of the Republican Party between those who care about being elected and those who care about Trump’s ego.
There is also evidence that the women’s vote was a factor. Measures (in essence referenda) were on the ballot in California, Michigan, Vermont, Kentucky and Montana. They either upheld or attacked abortion rights — more correctly, reproductive rights — and all resulted in votes for reproductive rights. Votes on these meaures ranges from 52.5% in Kentucky (against no right to abortion) to 77.4% in Vermont (for a constitutional right to personal reproductive autonomy). However exit polling shows that no one issue dominated — abortion, for example, had about the same level of concern as inflation. Another major factor was concerns about democracy, a big negative for Republicans.
The Republican drive to pack the Supreme Court with religious fundamentalists and misogynists is out of step with US views. Polls generally show big majorities in favour of reproductive autonomy. The Republican drive to overturn Roe vs Wade is like a dog that chases a car. It isn’t supposed to catch one. In this election, reproductive rights may have been somewhat overshadowed by other issues like jitters over the economy but the outcome of these ballot measures suggests that similar votes will occur in other states and that may well drive stronger participation by women in those states.
Finally, what about Gen-Z? A common refrain in elections is how fickle the youth vote is. The youth vote is a different group of people each election — perhaps less so in the US, where there are elections every two years. This time, forgiving student debt may have played a role and exit-polling shows that this demographic strongly supported Democrats. But successful campaigns need to engage with youth on a continuous basis not assume that what worked last time will work again.
Where does this leave Trump? Before the election, he said he should get all the credit if the Republicans do well and should not be blamed if they do badly. So it will be interesting to see how he spins this. This election has shown that he can dominate the nomination process but not win elections. Which is not good for the Republicans; unless the Democrats are in an extremely weak position in 2024, the Republicans are set for a thrashing.
Finally, what does this mean for the rest of the world? With the narrow loss by Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro to an old-school leftist, does this mean that vacuous populism with its toxic tendencies like xenophobia, racism, homophobia, ethnic nationalism and racism has run it course? Sadly, this is a tendency that keeps coming back when politics as usual does not deliver. Often, the effect is short term: vacuous promises are superficially easy to fulfil but they do not amount to effective delivery. In a police state, it is possible to get away with this but in a society with relatively free information flows, lack of delivery ultimately destroys this sort of movement.
South Africa has more than its share of political movements that are not much more than personality cults that have little to offer other than xenophobia and other forms of destructive othering. We should know better as apartheid was based on similar ideas.
I am not a fan of “broad sweep of history” analyses as that allows us to do nothing while harmful tendencies do their worst, in the expectation that they will burn themselves out.
Trumpism and related populist far-right personality cults should be strongly opposed wherever they arise. Even if the mainstream of US politics is fairly reactionary and supports damaging international interventions, it is not at the level of a fascist state. At least the worst excesses can be opposed without the opposition being jailed or suppressed by force.
Philip Machanick is an associate professor of computer science at Rhodes University. These are his own views.
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