The real battle starts now for ANC positions

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While President Cyril Ramaphosa has emerged as the biggest winner in the ANC nomination process, securing the endorsement of more ANC branches than any other candidate, it is still fair game for most of the top six positions. 

The first part of the nominations came to a close on Tuesday when the party’s electoral committee head Kgalema Motlanthe announced 16 party leaders were eligible to battle it out for the top positions in December. 

As expected, Ramaphosa emerged as the front runner for a second term as the leader of the party ahead of Dr Zweli Mkhize, who received less than 50% of Ramaphosa’s vote. 

Zweli Mkhize 

Mkhize, who enjoys support from the ANC’s biggest province in KwaZulu-Natal, will have to convince his former allies Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma and Lindiwe Sisulu to endorse his campaign and barter with some provinces to have any chance at beating Ramaphosa. 

Dlamini-Zuma and Sisulu had initially entertained a possible marriage with Mkhize in the early days of campaigning this year. 

Dlamini-Zuma received nominations from only 81 branches while Sisulu received 66.

Current ANC deputy president David Mabuza, who also failed to meet the threshold for nomination, could help Mkhize, having received 196 branch nominations. 

They are more likely to throw their weight behind Mkhize than Ramaphosa.

A major headache for Mkhize has been the breakdown in the relationship with Paul Mashatile, the current front runner for the position of deputy president.  

Those lobbying for Mkhize had initially thought that Mashatile would put his weight behind their campaign for party president, with the support of KwaZulu-Natal as the trade-off. 

This was clear when the KwaZulu-Natal provincial executive committee pronounced on Mashatile in September. 

Mashatile has also garnered the biggest chunk of support, with 521 branches in KwaZulu-Natal nominating him ahead of Oscar Mabuyane and Ronald Lamola. 

However, the relationship between Mkhize and Mashatile showed signs that it was buckling under pressure, which led to KwaZulu-Natal regions threatening to reassess their support for Mashatile. 

Cyril Ramaphosa 

The outgoing ANC president has received a resounding nod for a second term from ANC branches across the country. 

His anchor province of the Eastern Cape delivered the highest nomination, with 420 branches choosing him ahead of other contenders. 

This is despite a recent outcry from the Eastern Cape provincial leaders following a pronouncement by Ramaphosa’s chief lobbyist supporting Senzo Mchunu for deputy president ahead of Mabuyane. 

While Ramaphosa sits comfortably at the head of the table in the nominations, some of his allies are starting to get unsettled by his reluctance to pronounce on his preferred running mate. 

While the fallout of Ramaphosa remaining mum would not be significant, it could fuel confusion as some contenders are relying on his endorsement to convince branches of their nomination. 

Ntuli emerged as the front runner for the position of ANC secretary general with 1 225 branch nominations, ahead of the 889 and 749 received by Masualle and Mbalula, respectively.

However,  Ntuli will not sleep peacefully. 

Both he and Mbalula are expected to eat away at each other’s constituencies in the period leading to the December election. 

Both leaders have hitched themselves to Ramaphosa’s wagon, despite earlier indications that Ntuli was aligned to Mashatile, and by extension, Nomvula Mokonyane. 

Mbalula, whose own campaign started in the middle of branch general meetings, will also rely on the generational mix and ANC youth league credentials for his election, much like Ntuli. 

Masualle is expected to leverage the ANC branches which are anti-Ramaphosa or aligned to Mkhize. 

Masualle, a former SACP leader and former Eastern Cape chairperson, will also use his former allies on the left to counter the Mbalula and Ntuli campaigns. 

The current posture of Cosatu and the SACP against the Ramaphosa-led government could benefit Masualle’s campaign. 

Paul Mashatile

The current party treasurer general is the leading contender for the deputy president position with a significant margin between him and Mabuyane and Ronald Lamola. 

Mashatile has also been touted to run against Ramaphosa and Mkhize for the party president position. 

He recently told journalists that he would be receptive to the idea if nominated from the floor and should Mkhize and Ramaphosa be barred from standing.

Despite KwaZulu-Natal’s threat to reconsider its nomination of Mashatile, this should not make a huge dent in his lead.

Mashatile could be the biggest winner in the nomination process as most of his known allies have made ballot and are currently leading their respective positions.

These include Stan Mathabatha, Mzwandile Masina, Pule Mabe and Mdumiseni Ntuli. 

Mokonyane has been the front runner for the position of deputy secretary general during the entire ANC campaign season, with provinces elected to nominate her despite a call by those aligned to Ramaphosa for Potgieter to emerge. 

Mokonyane and Mashatile have been pegged together by provinces as both received endorsements from the same provincial executive committees. While Mokonyane was an unlikely candidate for the position in the months leading up to the branch general meetings, she has since surpassed popular names including Gwen Ramokgopa for the position.  

Gwede Mantashe, David Masondo & Stan Mathabatha

Mathabatha has emerged as the front runner for the national chairperson’s position, securing the backing of nearly 500 more branches than the incumbent, Mantashe, and nearly 1 000 more than Masondo.

Mathabatha, an ally of Mashatile, will be worried that Masondo led the nominations for chairperson in Gauteng, Mashatile’s home province.

A total of 182 Gauteng branches backed Masondo, ahead of the 151 that nominated  Mathabatha. 

However, Masondo and Mantashe are, like the Ramaphosa-aligned candidates for secretary general, likely to take votes off each other at conference if the ballot paper is unchanged, boosting Mathabatha’s chances of a victory.

Pule Mabe, Bejani Chauke and Mzwandile Masina

Chauke, a close ally of the president, has emerged as the strongest contender for treasurer general, but has a narrow margin over both the other contenders, Mabe and Masina.

Well under half of the branches nationwide nominated for the position, which could create space for a fourth contender to be nominated from the floor.

At least three of the top six contenders who spoke to Mail & Guardian said that while the nominations were vital, they would not attach much significance to them as there was still lobbying and horsetrading to take place among the provinces ahead of December.

The consolidated national list was an exercise sufficient to indicate where broadly things stand and may be a basis for preparing for the conference, they said.

The ANC leaders all said that only now would there be real, hard work, which will include buttering of provinces and horse trading negotiations. 

Provincial leaders will likely start to hold delegate caucuses to assess numbers for their preferred candidates while lobbyists will be working to convince provincial players to pick their chosen favourite. 

Speaking to the media on Tuesday, party electoral committee secretary Chief Livhuwani Matsila said there was still a good chance that some party leaders will be nominated from the floor, however, they will need 25% from delegates to make it to the ballot. 

The ANC is likely to receive criticism after only two women met the threshold for nomination. Reacting to this, Matsila said the rules for nomination had been designed to ensure they reflected women and the youth. 

The electoral committee said that 50/50 gender parity would be properly constituted in the election of national executive committee (NEC) members.  

The step-aside nettle

Mkhize and Ramaphosa could still find themselves out of the race as the electoral committee awaits the conclusion of the integrity committee reports.

Matsila confirmed that the committee had received all outstanding reports from the body of elders.

But he said that the NEC still needed to adopt or reject the recommendations for their consideration. 

The electoral committee guidelines are clear that those affected by the step-aside rule cannot contest party elections. 

Mkhize has an outstanding ruling by the commission which called for his suspension while Ramaphosa is still awaiting the report on whether the Phala Phala scandal and his role in it brought the party into disrepute, a serious charge which has previously led to the expulsion of ANC leaders, including Julius Malema. 

“That is still work in progress in that regard. Unfortunately some reports were only noted by NEC and in that regard their status becomes difficult to enforce,” Matsila said.

“Somewhere where the integrity commission could have ruled adversely, such rulings have not been implemented in some cases. That is what we will be taking up with the structures,” Matsila said.

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