The opening of the ANC’s 55th conference was typical. It started late, by roughly seven hours, and was marked by heckling. When the incumbent president of the party, Cyril Ramaphosa, started delivering his opening speech on Friday, 850 delegates had still not registered.
As he got on with his remarks, Ramaphosa was interrupted by shouts of “Phala Phala” and “load-shedding”. Just as Ramaphosa thought he had the jeering under control, former president Jacob Zuma made a grand entrance, sparking a frenzy of excitement among his supporters. Zuma’s late entrance, which was probably deliberate, revived the disruptions.
All these unflattering scenes at ANC conferences are standard. Rowdiness is customary at such gatherings. It has been like that since 2005, beginning at the party’s second national general council. The usualness of this conference, however, also masks its potential to engender something new. The ANC is on the cusp of a complete generational change in its leadership that will see the old, discredited leaders discarded.
Ace Magashule’s lonesome figure, outside the conference premises, was typical of the shedding off of the unwanted. The suspended office-bearer insisted, in an interview with a journalist, that he was still the secretary general and called on his supporters to reject Ramaphosa’s political report.
Magashule obviously believes that he still wields some influence among a significant body of ANC members. He even threatened that, though suspended from ANC gatherings, he might just make it inside the conference. For Magashule to be allowed entry, conference delegates would have to overturn the national executive committee (NEC) decision to suspend him. That’s what delegates did at the 2005 national general council, overturning Zuma’s suspension.
Today, however, ANC delegates are unlikely to repeat what they did 17 years ago. The context is radically different. Contrary to what he wants onlookers to believe, Magashule has no influence. This shows in the dismal performance of his allies in the nomination process.
Lindiwe Sisulu and Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma, for instance, pulled together a combined measly 147 votes out of a total number of 3 308 votes cast for a presidential nominee. Ramaphosa, by comparison, got a commanding 2 037 votes. It’s highly unlikely that those numbers will change.
Dlamini Zuma and Sisulu’s miserable performance is indicative of the total rejection of Ramaphosa’s rivals. The rejection appears even more emphatic when looking at Zuma’s performance in the lead-up to this gathering and at the conference itself. The eruption that greeted Zuma’s grand entry is misleading.
Although received excitedly by delegates largely from KwaZulu-Natal, these are the same delegates that rejected his influence. He was cheering for his former wife, Dlamini Zuma, whom the KwaZulu-Natal delegates rejected. She received only 24 nominations in that province, compared with Zweli Mkhize’s 643 votes. KwaZulu-Natal delegates voted overwhelmingly for the candidate that Zuma did not support. That was a total snub for Zuma.
If KwaZulu-Natal delegates have been coy in their rejection of Zuma, delegates from the rest of the country have been uncertain. This was evident at the party’s registration centre, where Zuma appears to have gone to register. Always confident in his popularity, Zuma waved at supporters, only to be greeted by a song that praised Ramaphosa.
Cyril Ramaphosa’s older rivals have been rejected and strong top six contenders include younger people like Mdumiseni Ntuli. (Photo: Delwyn Verasamy, M&G)
It looked like delegates were hounding Zuma with their adoration for Ramaphosa. The scene was reminiscent of Nelson Mandela’s memorial service in December 2013, when a large section of the crowd booed Zuma. The delegates were registering, openly and proudly, their disapproval of the man. For a former president, the scene was jarring. It meant they no longer respected Zuma, and could not hide it.
Most likely, therefore, this conference will shed the ANC of the malfeasant influence that had seen its decline in the recent past. The prospects of renewal are enhanced by the likely coherence of office bearers that will possibly be elected. Ramaphosa looks poised to work with like-minded individuals in the party’s top six.
The strongest signal for the wide acceptance and possible success of attempts at renewal is the strength of Mdumiseni Ntuli’s candidature for secretary general. The former provincial secretary of the ANC in KwaZulu-Natal, Ntuli’s stellar nomination performance, a total of 1 225, indicates the acceptance of the idea of renewal.
Ntuli’s support has nothing to do with ethnic loyalty or personal relations. He was rejected by his own province. Of the total 1 225 nominations, 241 came from KwaZulu-Natal. His home province went overwhelmingly for Phumulo Masualle, with 412 nominations.
Mkhize’s campaign is hoping to get a share of the Eastern Cape’s 500 votes, the second highest after KwaZulu-Natal at 654. That calculation doesn’t seem to be working out though. Mkhize got an unimpressive 62 nominations from the Eastern Cape, far behind Ramaphosa’s whopping 420. Masualle has some support in his home province — with 160 nominations — but they are not persuaded by Mkhize’s candidature.
Ntuli is a national favourite for the secretary general post. His support is relatively evenly spread throughout the country. He received the highest number of nominations in five provinces. Ntuli’s impressive performance underscores a collective yearning for a different and improved organisation.
The Eastern Cape even voted for him, over their own, without any expectation of a quid pro quo from KwaZulu-Natal. They opted for the idea, over kin relations. Ntuli represents renewal. He advocated the idea against tremendous odds to the detriment of his own position as provincial secretary. The idea was highly unpopular in his province, where most members denounced it as an attack against Zuma, an icon of organisational decay.
When others shunned former president Thabo Mbeki, a nemesis of Zuma, Ntuli invited him to address provincial leaders. The purpose was to de-Zumafy the province. For that, together with his provincial chairperson, Sihle Zikalala, Ntuli was voted out as provincial secretary. His rivals labelled him anti-Zuma.
Their stance was opportunistic. Siboniso Duma, and the rest of the new provincial leaders, did not genuinely support Zuma. They simply feigned support, given his popularity in the province, to oust Ntuli and his colleagues. Now they’ve turned on Zuma to support Mkhize. And while KwaZulu-Natal was seized with opportunistic and unprincipled politics, the rest of the ANC embraced Ntuli as their ideal leader, quite appropriate for the demands of the moment.
So convinced are ANC members by Ntuli’s principled stance that they don’t seem to have held his lack of seniority against him. They seem to prefer him over colleagues that are senior to him — Fikile Mbalula and Masualle. Though vocal in favour of renewal lately, for a while Mbalula prevaricated, swayed by who was likely to win, instead of being principled.
Ntuli’s likely victory, however, is not a total loss for Mbalula. His generation seems poised to dominate the NEC that is likely to be elected at this conference. Mbalula got the fifth highest nominations, while the preceding four positions went to individuals who either served with or under him.
And, he enjoys respect from most of the provincial leaders, with whom he served in the ANC Youth League. All this puts Mbalula in pole position to assume the leadership of the NEC. This conference is likely to herald a generational shift in the leadership of the ANC.
Mbalula’s likely leadership of the NEC augurs well for the renewal project. The reassurance of his place in Ramaphosa’s inner circle will make him an even more ardent advocate of renewal. He only prevaricates if his personal fortunes are uncertain.
That said, the list of NEC nominees also reflects the enduring strength of personal relations. Malusi Gigaba has ethical questions hanging over his head, but he came second in the nominations. Similarly, Andile Lungisa’s criminal record bars him from nomination, but he’s among the top 10 nominees.
Though they’ve been largely marginalised from ANC leadership, Gigaba and Lungisa are connected to the network of leaders who wield influence in the various provinces. These are individuals with whom they served in the youth league. Personal ties of loyalty, forged over years of working together, remain strong.
The ANC’s renewal project remains in doubt. The organisation continues to say one thing while doing quite the opposite. What direction the ANC takes in the following years will be determined by how it resolves the tension between personal loyalties and commitment to principle. The ANC is only likely to improve if it can become an impersonalised institution. For it to triumph, personal loyalties must die.
Mcebisi Ndletyana is a professor of political science at the University of Johannesburg.
The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Mail & Guardian.
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