If you’re hoping for less drama in our political life this year, think again. This is a pre-election year. It’s time for political parties to build up material for use in their electoral campaigns in 2024. But this pre-election year is likely to yield even more drama than previous pre-election years.
Besides the lead-up to the polls, this year is also already laden with a number of pressing and contentious issues that require settling. All these hold different fortunes for the various political actors and will add an edge to their conduct, the extent of which will depend on their assessment of further electoral losses, stabilisation and prospects for growth. It’s going to be a roller-coaster year for all the major parties but more so for the governing party, which appears unclear on how to resolve some of the most pressing public policy problems.
Let’s start with the latter point. Load-shedding has become a consistent irritant. Sometimes it is more enraging than unemployment because it denies people simple pleasures such as watching sport on television while sipping a cold beer. It doesn’t look like our energy supply will get back to normal anytime soon.
Eskom has just lost its 10th chief executive officer -— André de Ruyter who will leave the utility in March — in 10 years. The problems are said to be multiple and complex, ranging from infrastructure breakdown, sabotage and theft to lack of funds for maintenance and new equipment.
It is possible that some of the problems are exaggerated. Whatever the real problems are, it is clear that Eskom cannot be turned around without making unpopular decisions, and they will take longer to resolve than we’re willing to endure.
It’s a company that desperately wants to collect what it’s owed, so it’s difficult not to switch off the electricity of those who don’t want to settle their debt. And the breakdown of old power stations does lead to interruptions. For a party in a bad electoral shape, such as the ANC, these are exactly the kind of measures they’d prefer Eskom not to take.
They blamed their electoral losses in Soweto on Eskom switching off electricity for bad payers. After De Ruyter, who they said was clueless, was forced to resign the government is now in a tight spot. They can’t employ a new chief executive only to have that person put households through the same measures as De Ruyter did.
The new chief executive is supposed to know better and perform miracles. If De Ruyter was effectively fired as a show of political bravado, on the eve of the ANC’s elective conference in December, it will soon show. The circus around Eskom is unlikely to end any time soon.
The same dithering is evident at SAA. It doesn’t seem likely that the government will get a buyer for the 51% stake on offer in a hurry. The consortium that was touted as a likely buyer, Takatso, appears to have unravelled. It seems that one of the reasons for it falling apart was a lack of capital. Why the consortium was ever the frontrunner, when it doesn’t appear to have had sufficient capital to start with, is a mystery.
Without a new partner to inject capital into SAA it looks likely that we’ll be back talking about the problem of a bailout yet again. Middle-class voters won’t be happy — or perhaps the ANC has given up on them. But the working-class and indigent are not entirely content with the performance of the governing party either.
The segment of the South African population that the ANC can truly please is fast shrinking. It faces intense competition from both flanks, left and right. The electoral ground is fertile for the centre-right ActionSA to continue growing. It will shine attention on the indecisiveness and mismanagement of public entities.
It won’t have to look around much or produce evidence to make its case. People’s experiences are sufficient testimonies to the government’s poor performance and blunders.
Julius Malema’s Economic Freedom Fighters is in a similarly advantageous position. It’s a natural magnet for disaffected voters who feel that the establishment no longer cares for them. Despite the favourable socioeconomic conditions, however, the party’s growth prospects are not entirely certain. Its leaders — Malema and Floyd Shivambu — are implicated in the pillage of VBS Mutual Bank.
A number of officials from the bank are already on trial and may provide all manner of information in exchange for lighter sentences. Newspaper reports have provided a trail of monies from the bank to both Malema and Shivambu’s accounts and showed how they splurged on all sorts of luxurious goods and garments. This may well be the year they’re charged to explain how they secured those funds.
Our legal system, therefore, is likely to remain at the centre of our political life. The constitutional court ruling on the rigour, or lack thereof, of Judge Sandile Ngcobo’s section 85 report on Phala Phala is likely to be one of the first lightning rods of the year. Expect the judiciary to come under vitriolic attack. And they’re likely to continue into the election year, as more individuals appear before courts to explain their impropriety and stand to lose out on nominations to parliament next year.
The Zondo commission on state capture has provided a long list of such individuals, some of whom have just been elected ANC office bearers and to its national executive committee. They include Malusi Gigaba, Nomvula Mokonyane and David Mahlobo.
The adoption of the step-aside rule is likely to make them even more determined to resist being charged. Court appearances will disqualify them from consideration for public office. For individuals solely reliant on party deployment for a livelihood, disqualification from public office is a confinement to a miserable existence. That dim prospect will add an extra edge to their fight-back.
Mokonyane has already lobbed the initial salvo at the party’s disciplinary committee, intimating that it is being abused to victimise certain individuals. She obviously thinks she has no case to answer. If she’s called upon to answer, it won’t be because there are legitimate questions about her conduct, but an attempt at victimisation.
Mokonyane is not the only one who thinks that unethical behaviour is just fine. More than half of the delegates at the ANC’s recent conference think so too. That’s why they made her deputy secretary general. With that kind of endorsement, it’s not far-fetched to imagine that they could come to her defence.
Although the ANC will continue to face tumult within, this year offers the party the first genuine opportunity to rehabilitate its image. Most of the party’s office bearers and its national leadership are decidedly behind Cyril Ramaphosa’s reform drive. He’s likely to get support and the party will communicate one clear message.
Fikile Mbalula, the party’s newly minted “enforcer”, will ensure compliance through his new role as secretary general. The toughest test of their attempt at renewal will be how they deal with Gwede Mantashe. The Zondo commission found something untoward in Bosasa installing a security system at his home.
This is the same company that treated Mokonyane to all manner of largesse. Mantashe says these are just gifts that should not raise anybody’s eyebrows and has gone to court to overturn Zondo’s findings. If the court agrees with the commission, then Mantashe stands to be charged, which would oblige the ANC to act. How the party deals with that eventuality, especially now that he has become more valuable to Ramaphosa, will either strengthen or weaken its efforts at renewal.
Don’t expect less noise this year. The country is far from reaching a silent moment, and may actually never get there. And that’s not something to despair over. People should derive satisfaction from the racket.
The republic is beyond bickering over what is right or wrong. There’s unanimity over what constitutes the public good and ideal leadership. Now the noise should be over the extent of the punishment for malfeasant individuals. This is good noise.
Dr Klaus Kotzé is a senior researcher at the Inclusive Society Institute.
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