Russia-Ukraine war live: Bakhmut counteroffensive starts soon, says Ukrainian ground forces commander

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Suspilne, Ukraine’s state broadcaster, reports that about 300 households were left without electricity overnight in Velyka Pysarivka in the Sumy region after Russian shelling damaged power lines. Citing the regional energy company, it reports that “emergency crews are working to restore electricity supply, and some consumers have already been reconnected.”

This morning we have a piece telling the story of Olha, who fled Kherson a year ago this week and has faced many challenges in relocating to the UK, including enrolling her children in school”:

Last February, I was preparing to shoot a short film about Kherson’s streets. A rehearsal was scheduled – but it never took place.

That was the day they bombed airports simultaneously across the country. Public transport stopped running from our city. The frontline ran straight to our city and a week later we found ourselves under occupation. One morning changed our lives, and that of every Ukrainian family, for ever.

We are refugees now, even our cat, Venera. When we arrived in Britain, we never expected such kind support. When people find out we are from Ukraine, they often say: “I’m sorry,” or “Ukraine will win.” Some of them tell how they felt when Russia first invaded and how they bought humanitarian aid, such as food and diapers.

I have found a safe space in London, at a project for women and refugees. There we reveal our experience, do drama exercises and put on shows. For me it’s a kind of healing and I am happy to be a part of that community.

My children have had to abruptly switch to learning in a foreign language. For the first six months at school, my daughter did not understand anything at all. Struck by the difference in the curriculum, the gap only increased.

Read more here: ‘We are refugees now, even our cat’: a Kherson mother’s UK diary

Former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev has posted to Telegram video clips of himself being interviewed by journalists and social media users. Yesterday he threatened to attack any state that allowed the current president, Vladimir Putin, to be arrested. Today, Tass is carrying quotes from him about the stability of the Russian economy despite western sanctions. It quotes him saying:

If something similar [to the current anti-Russian sanctions of the west] happened in the Soviet period, it would be very difficult for us, it would not be clear at all how it would cope.

But now we have created our own modern, competitive agricultural sector. I am very proud of it. Therefore, we can feed ourselves. We are now feeding others. Now we are not turning to anyone, they are turning to us.

And civil industry lives. Some things are faster, some things are slower, but on the whole everything is going on quite normally.

Medvedev made the point that the official inflation figure in Russia is lower than in some European countries, saying: “Feel the difference. They ignited this campaign, they began to fight us, and now inflation is 15-20% in some countries. Well, that’s what they need.”

Credit Suisse AG and UBS group AG are under scrutiny in a US Department of Justice probe into whether financial professionals helped Russian oligarchs evade sanctions, Bloomberg News reported on Thursday.

The DOJ also sent subpoenas to employees of some major US banks, the Bloomberg report said, adding that the Swiss banks were included in a wave of subpoenas sent before Credit Suisse’s takeover by UBS.

The DOJ inquiries are to identify which bank employees dealt with sanctioned clients and how those clients were vetted over past years, Bloomberg reported.

The bankers may then be further investigated to determine if they broke any laws, the report added.

Here is some analysis of what is happening in Bakhmut, via Reuters:

A slowdown by Russia in Bakhmut could mean it is diverting its troops and resources to other areas. Britain said on Thursday that Russian troops had made gains farther north this month, partially regaining control over the approaches to the town of Kreminna. Intense battles were also under way farther south.

The Ukrainian military analyst Oleh Zhdanov agreed with that assessment. He said on YouTube that Russia’s attacks on Bakhmut were decreasing, and it was shifting its efforts south to the town of Avdiivka.

Russia’s forces have become more active in areas to the north in the Kharkiv and Luhansk regions as well as central Zaporizhzhia and southern Kherson regions, he said.

Any shift in momentum in Bakhmut, if confirmed, would be remarkable given the city’s symbolic importance as the focus of Russia’s offensive, and the scale of the losses on both sides there in Europe’s bloodiest infantry battle since the second world war.

On the ground in Ukraine, frontlines have largely been frozen since November. Ukraine had looked likely to pull out of Bakhmut weeks ago but decided to fight on.

Russian forces may have to advance as far as Kyiv or Lviv in Ukraine, Russia’s former president Dmitry Medvedev said in an interview to Russian news agencies.

“Nothing can be ruled out here. If you need to get to Kyiv, then you need to go to Kyiv, if to Lviv, then you need to go to Lviv in order to destroy this infection,” RIA Novosti quoted Medvedev as saying on Friday.

There was no immediate response from Moscow to suggestions its forces in Bakhmut were losing momentum, but Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin issued statements in recent days, warning of a Ukrainian counterassault.

On Monday, Prigozhin published a letter to the Russian defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, saying Ukraine aimed to cut off Wagner’s forces from Russia’s regular troops.

Reuters journalists near the frontline north of Bakhmut saw signs consistent with the suggestion that the Russian offensive in the area could be waning. At a Ukrainian-held village west of Soledar, on Bakhmut’s northern outskirts, the intensity of the Russian bombardment noticeably lessened from two days earlier.

“It was really hot here a week ago, but in the last three days it has been more quiet,” said a Ukrainian soldier who used the call sign Kamin (Stone).

“We can see this in the enemy’s airstrikes. If before there were five-six air raids in a day, today we had only one helicopter attack,” said the soldier.

Ukraine’s top ground forces commander, Col Gen Oleksandr Syrskyi, said his forces would soon begin a counter offensive after withstanding Russia’s brutal winter campaign.

He said Russia’s Wagner mercenaries, who have been at the frontline of Moscow’s assault on eastern and southern Ukraine, “are losing considerable strength and are running out of steam”.

“Very soon, we will take advantage of this opportunity, as we did in the past near Kyiv, Kharkiv, Balakliia and Kupiansk,” he said, listing Ukrainian counteroffensives last year that recaptured swathes of land.

Welcome to the Guardian’s live coverage of the war in Ukraine with me, Helen Sullivan.

Our top story this morning: Ukrainian troops, on the defensive for four months, will soon launch a counterassault, Ukraine’s top ground forces commander has said, as Russia’s winter offensive weakens without capturing the eastern city of Bakhmut.

We’ll have more on this shortly. In the meantime here are the key recent developments:

Volodymyr Zelenskiy has renewed his call for more long-range weapons from western allies on Thursday.Speaking to an EU summit via video link, the Ukrainian president recounted the “devastating” scenes he had witnessed close to the frontlines, where fighting has been fiercest. The EU leaders endorsed a plan – agreed by foreign ministers on Monday – to send a million artillery shells to Ukraine over the next year.

Zelenskiy visited the southern region of Kherson, where he toured infrastructure and promised to rebuild following Russia’s invasion. Ukraine’s military said Russian forces had left the Kherson town of Nova Kakhovka but a Russian-installed official there denied it.

The EU leaders held talks on Thursday with the UN secretary general, Ant?nio Guterres, focused on global food security and sanctions imposed on Russia. Guterres’ participation came after the renewal of a deal brokered by the UN and Turkey on the safe export of Ukrainian grain via the Black Sea – seen as crucial to overcoming a global food crisis.

The EU Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, said the EU would work to find 16,200 Ukrainian children deported to Russia. Calling it a reminder of “the darkest times in our history”, she said only 300 had been returned so far.

Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy secretary of Russia’s security council, said Moscow’s relations with the west had hit an all-time low. Asked whether the threat of a nuclear conflict had eased, he said: “No, it hasn’t decreased, it has grown. Every day when they provide Ukraine with foreign weapons brings the nuclear apocalypse closer.” Medvedev said any attempt to arrest Vladimir Putin a would amount to a declaration of war against Russia.

Hungary would not arrest Putin if he entered the country, said prime minister Viktor Orb?n’s chief of staff said.

Finland’s president, Sauli Niinist?, signed legislation to make his country part of the Nato. Last year, Finland applied to join in response to Russia’s war in Ukraine. Legislation incorporating Nato’s founding treaties was passed in parliament in Helsinki on 1 March.

The UN nuclear agency’s chief has said the situation at Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia power plant “remains perilous” after a Russian missile strike disconnected it from the grid. Europe’s largest nuclear power plant needs a reliable electricity supply to operate pumps that circulate water to cool reactors and pools holding nuclear fuel.

Ukraine’s state emergency service said on Thursday that it had ended rescue attempts in Rzhyshchiv, Kyiv region, where nine people died in a Russian drone attack in the early hours of Wednesday morning.

Suspilne, Ukraine’s state broadcaster, reported that on Wednesday shelling in the Donetsk region killed two people and injured four others, while one person was killed and two were wounded in Kherson.

British military intelligence said Russia had partially regained control over the approaches to the eastern Ukrainian town of Kreminna after its troops were pushed back earlier this year.

Spain’s prime minister, Pedro S?nchez, has said he will discuss a peace plan for Ukraine with the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, during an official visit to China next week.

The governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis, has reversed his position on Ukraine after facing widespread criticism for calling the Russian invasion a “territorial dispute”. The likely contender for the Republican presidential nomination said his remark had been “mischaracterised”.