Strategic autonomy is gaining momentum in Europe

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Once again, France’s President Emmanuel Macron has ignited a controversy on both sides of the Atlantic, this time with his recent remarks that cast doubts on Europe’s allegiance to the United States. 

During an interview on his flight back from a three-day state visit to China in early April, the French president shared his perspective on the global order. In exchange with journalists from Les Echos and Politico, Macron voiced his belief that Europe ought to be recognised as a third global power, standing shoulder-to-shoulder with the US and China. 

Although this statement affirmed Macron’s well-known desire for “strategic autonomy” in Europe, which emphasises the importance of avoiding reliance on external military and economic actors, it was his comments regarding Taiwan that set off a flurry of criticism and concern from his European and American colleagues. Macron remarked, “Do we [Europeans] have an interest in speeding up on the subject of Taiwan? No. The worst of things would be to think that we Europeans must be followers on this subject and adapt ourselves to an American rhythm and a Chinese overreaction.” 

He added that If there was an acceleration of conflict between the US and Chinese duopoly “we will not have the time, nor the means to finance our own strategic autonomy and we will become vassals, whereas we could become the third pole [in the world order] if we have a few years to develop this”. 

As expected, there is enough fuel in these remarks to infuriate the China hawks in the West. Although there is nothing “too much new” in his remarks that should suddenly upset his friends in Washington and other European capitals. Macron, for quite some time, has been emphasising the importance of Europe’s sovereignty and strategic autonomy, positing that it is imperative for the continent to assert itself on the global stage. It is the timing and tone of Macron’s comments that have ruffled feathers in the West. 

Not surprisingly, the pro-US elements have subjected Macron to severe criticism over his “apparently rebellious” remarks. The Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China (IPAC) said in a statement that Macron’s comments are “severely out of touch” with sentiment across European leadership. “You do not speak for Europe,” it further said. “The return of geopolitics means that we have to see more clearly who is our ally and who is not. Strong transatlantic relations between Europe and the US are the foundation of our security,” 

Similarly, while drawing parallels with the conflict in Ukraine, US Republican Senator Marco Rubio said that if Europe doesn’t “pick sides between the US and China over Taiwan, then maybe we shouldn’t be picking sides either [on Ukraine]”. 

Despite such a barrage of criticism, Macron seems determined to resist pressure from pro-American voices at home and abroad. During his trip to the Netherlands last week, Macron reiterated his belief that the European Union must take a stand on key issues independently of the US. Specifically, he identified some crucial areas in which the EU should chart its own course, including trade, competitiveness, and European industry. This bold stance reflects Macron’s commitment to asserting European sovereignty and forging a path that is distinct from that of Washington. 

Interestingly, Washington has desisted from directly censuring Macron on his remarks. One obvious reason for such a measured response is the US policymakers are still trying to read the velocity of this new wave of strategic autonomy that has gained momentum in recent months, as more and more European leaders visit Beijing to redefine their relationship. 

Macron is not alone in Europe in his quest for strategic autonomy, which is now being tagged with the new equilibrium towards China. Germany, Italy and Spain are among the nations that have thrown their weight behind a robust EU-China relationship, even as the US adopts a more confrontational approach to what it perceives as an increasingly aggressive Beijing. The US is bent upon pressuring the EU to align with its own China strategy, rather than pursue its own interests in its relationship with Beijing. 

This pressure is manifested in various ways, such as attempts to prevent European nations from using Huawei’s 5G network equipment and demands for further “decoupling” from China in the semiconductor industry. The remarks made by Macron have been criticised by China hawks in the West for being unhelpful, because they have the potential to weaken US and Japanese deterrence against China in the western Pacific. 

The texture of China-EU relations is intricate and Europe also has certain ideological disparities with China, but some of the European leaders have started taking their relationship with China seriously and trying to assert their strategic autonomy in this matter. The prevailing sentiment in the EU, except for few hardliners, is that collaboration with China is essential for mutual benefit, because of the sheer scale of the Chinese market, which boasts the world’s greatest purchasing power. 

It seems that the EU recognises that there is no viable alternative to fostering a productive partnership with China. The economic relationship between China and the EU has become increasingly intertwined in recent years. In 2022, their bilateral trade volume reached a staggering $847.3 billion, making China the EU’s second-largest trading partner, and vice versa. Moreover, China has emerged as one of the principal sources of tourism for Europe. Prior to the pandemic outbreak in 2019, Chinese tourists spent a whopping €125 billion ($136.9 billion) overseas. France alone welcomed 2.2 million Chinese visitors, who generated a total of €3.5 billion ($3.8 billion) in revenue. These figures provide a glimpse into the economic effect that China has on the EU. 

The recent slew of European leaders visiting China indicates a concerted effort to strike a delicate balance between pragmatic needs and political considerations. Some of the influential members of the EU, particularly France, Germany, Spain and Italy, appear to be seeking a fresh start with China — a “reset”, so to speak. 

The current reality demands that the EU and China explore novel paths, while navigating the complex and often contentious issues that have long characterised their relationship. Indubitably, in the recent past, the relationship between the EU and China has been characterised by strained ties and tension. The root of this tension may be linked to US concerns over China’s economic rise, rather than its security implications. In an effort to rally support, the US is attempting to bring the EU into its orbit. But, this “us versus them” mentality is gradually losing steam. After the Pentagon leaks, which have catapulted the Biden administration into a defensive mode, Washington appears to fast losing its clout in dictating the EU  

The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Mail & Guardian.