Pressure on Sunak is building after the UK local elections

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The recent local elections in the UK have dealt a crushing blow to Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party, with losses totaling over 1 000 seats. Meanwhile, Labour is feeling emboldened, with the party confidently asserting that it is well-positioned to seize power in the next general election. The results are a clear indication of the shifting political landscape in the UK. 

The English council elections have left many Tories feeling disappointed and disheartened. Sunak is facing a precarious situation, after a blistering assessment by some of his own MPs and the increasing murmurs of a leadership challenge from supporters of former prime minister Boris Johnson. 

It seems his position is in serious jeopardy, with many wondering whether he will be able to weather the storm and retain his hold on power. While Labour leader Keir Starmer and his team managed to secure over 500 seats, a significant victory by any measure, some have expressed disappointment in the overall results. The pre-poll estimates extrapolated from the England-only local results were predicting that Labour would surge ahead with 35%, leaving the Conservatives in the dust with just 26%, the Liberal Democrats would secure around 20%, with other parties accounting for the remaining 19%. But things turned out much different from these surveys. 

The Labour leadership is feeling bullish about the results, labelling them as the party’s strongest showing in local elections since the historic 1997 victory. In fact, they believe that if this level of support can be replicated in a general election, it could spell a decisive win for Starmer and the Labour party, potentially giving them a governing majority. 

There are many variables at play, and a great deal will need to be done to maintain this momentum and build on these gains. For the moment, the winds seem to be blowing in Labour’s direction, and the party is seizing the moment with confidence and determination.

These results have given Starmer and his party much to celebrate. With over 500 seats secured, Starmer is feeling buoyed, and party insiders are confident that they are on track to take power in the 2024 general election — a feat that would mark their first return to government in 14 years. 

Of course, much work remains to be done before the next election, and there will undoubtedly be many obstacles and challenges to overcome along the way. But, for now, Starmer and his team are savouring this moment of victory, and using it as fuel to push forward and build on their success.

In a major victory for the Labour party, they have gained 536 councillors and 22 councils, including crucial battlegrounds like Swindon, Plymouth, Medway and Stoke-on-Trent, which bodes well for their prospects in the general election. 

But the Conservatives must be feeling the sting of their significant loss of 1 061 councillors and 48 councils. However, the Tories did manage to gain control of Torbay and Wyre Forest. The Liberal Democrats also had a strong showing, winning 12 councils and 405 councillors, including previously Conservative strongholds such as Windsor and Maidenhead and Stratford-on-Avon. The Green party was not to be left behind, with nearly 250 of their candidates securing seats as councillors, and their historic first-ever outright majority in a council in Mid Suffolk. 

These election results will undoubtedly have significant implications for the political landscape in the months and years to come.

As expected, the Tories are deeply unhappy with their dismal showing in the local elections, which exceeded their worst predictions. Many within the party are furious at the scale of their losses, with most placing the blame squarely on Sunak. 

In an effort to put a positive spin on it, Sunak and party chairman Greg Hands tried to downplay the significance of the losses, claiming that there had been no major shift from Conservative to Labour voters. While accepting the results as “disappointing”, Sunak is not yet ready to detect “a massive groundswell of movement towards the Labour Party or excitement for its agenda”. 

What Sunak and his close associates are unable to understand is that the Tories are facing a twofold challenge — the first being the cost of living crisis and the second being the events of last year that saw comical internal squabbling and musical chairs among Sunak, Johnson and former PM Liz Truss. 

The complacent behaviour of Conservative MPs in their respective constituencies is being cited as another reason for the party’s dismal performance. It was observed that, after being in power for a long, uninterrupted period, the local leadership of the Conservative Party had started taking it for granted and kept on ignoring the local issues. There is a clear correlation with the results in areas where Tory MPs were active. Those where the MPs were less than visible, the Conservative candidates were punished by the voters. 

Nonetheless, while the election results certainly put some unexpected pressure on Sunak, the fact remains that there aren’t many credible alternatives for the Tories. Apparently, after last year’s exhaustive internal fighting after the successive departures of Johnson and Truss, which seriously damaged the credibility of the Conservative leadership, the party workers do not seem to be eager for another leadership election and certainly not for the return of a divisive figure such as Johnson. 

Although the pro-Johnson group within the party has started demanding Sunak should face a confirmatory vote of members and that no one should rule out a comeback for Johnson, this demand is not likely to catch steam in the coming days. 

So, despite the losses, Sunak’s position is not as precarious as some might believe. Most Conservative MPs are still rallying behind him. Many of them might find some solace in the fact that while their performance in local elections was lacklustre, Labour’s success wasn’t extraordinary either, certainly not as significant as prior to the 1997 election. 

On the other hand, the Labour Party is trying to project these results as a referendum on the Sunak government. The Tories are comforting themselves by arguing that, historically, every government during the mid-term suffers losses in local elections, especially a government that has been in power for over a decade. 

But, on the pretext of the momentum in local elections, Starmer was in a state of ecstasy and asked Labour supporters to prepare for government. 

“We are going to bottle this feeling we have today and then we’re going to turn it into a general election win next year,” he said. 

He has reasons to be elated after his party’s performance in the local polls but the fact remains that Sunak still has ample time to steer his party towards 2024 elections with renewed commitment, despite multiple internal challenges. But the coming months will be tougher for the prime minister, for sure.

Dr Imran Khalid is a freelance columnist on international affairs based in Karachi, Pakistan. He qualified as a physician at Dow Medical University in 1991 and has a master’s degree in international relations from Karachi University.