Turkey elections live: runoff ‘looking likely’ as Erdo?an’s future hangs in the balance

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The general trend in this election on the parliamentary level has been towards a diffusion of votes towards smaller and in some cases newer parties and away from Turkey’s larger parties like the CHP, but even more so away from the governing AKP. As it stands with over 95% of ballots opened according to state agency Anadolu, the AKP-led People’s Alliance has almost half of the parliament and constitutes a large majority but its share of the vote has shrunk substantially from prior legislative elections.

Here is some data taking us back to when the AKP first came to power in 2002:

2002 – 34.4%

2007 – 46.5%

2011 – 49.3%

2015 – 49.5%

2018 – 42.6%

2023 – 35.4%

This won’t surprise regular observers of Turkish politics. Soaring inflation has eaten away at the purchasing power of regular Turks, and as inflation has increased, the AKP’s popularity has declined also. That was clearest when another broad opposition alliance led by the CHP which Kemal K?l??daro?lu was the patient architect of took Istanbul, Izmir and Ankara in 2019 local elections.

Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdo?an has just given a jubilant and energetic speech to his followers gathered outside his Justice and Development party (AKP) headquarters in the capital, Ankara, where he strode out onto the stage singing one of his campaign songs, entitled “For those who hear, and for those who don’t hear.”

The speech appears to be an attempt to seize control of the narrative in a tightly contested vote where the opposition say many of their votes have yet to be included in the official tally. Turkey’s official elections authority the YSK said that 87.13% of the vote had been counted.

“We love you very much,” he told the crowd, appearing fired up in a way that has rarely been quite so apparent on the campaign trail. Erdo?an initially promised a more subdued election campaign following twin deadly earthquakes that killed more than 50,000 people, but recently switched to staging regular rallies.

“Somebody is in the kitchen, we are on the balcony,” said Erdo?an, in a reference to his rival presidential candidate Kemal K?l??daro?lu’s campaign videos filmed in his kitchen intended to portray his rival as down-to-earth.

He added: “Our country has completely a feast of democracy with these elections. Although the results are not clear yet we are in the lead by a long way. Both domestic and overseas voting results will take time to come in, but of course we are not like those who try to deceive the nation perhaps for the last time by creating a picture where they are far behind but saying they were ahead. We have always been honest to our nation, we know that we are far ahead in the election today, however we expect that the exact results will come.”

“We believe we can get above 50% in this round,” he said, indicating he now believes that an outright win might still be possible rather than a run-off in two weeks’ time.

It is after 2am in Istanbul and Recep Tayyip Erdo?an is now speaking on the balcony at his party’s headquarters. We’ll bring you the details soon.

A run-off election is looking increasingly likely between President Recep Tayyip Erdo?an’s ruling AKP party and his opposition rival Kemal K?l??daro?lu’s CHP.

Based on results so far, neither party appears likely to reach the 50% threshold to win outright. Any second round run-off would take place on 28 May.

The Supreme Election Council (YSK) says 87% of the vote has been counted, but that there have been long delays in tallying up those that are being counted abroad.

The state-owned Anadolu news agency has Erdo?an on 49.38% and K?l??daro?lu on 44.90% but there have been discrepancies between the data given out by state media and the YSK.

Opposition figures Kemal K?l??daro?lu and Sinan O?an have voiced concern about the pace of the vote count. K?l??daro?lu said some counts were being blocked by repeated objections. “Do not block the will of this nation. I call out to our democracy workers on the field. Never leave the ballot boxes and election boards. We are here until every single vote is counted,” he tweeted.

O?an said he had heard of overseas votes being “manipulated”. “Vote counting is not done in a healthy environment. I warn the YSK [the Supreme Election Council]. Take the necessary measures immediately and ensure that the vote counting processes are carried out quickly. In addition, we will not allow a fait accompli with a manipulation of foreign votes.”

The lira has fallen against the euro as investors voiced disappointment that Erdogan’s era of unconventional economics does not appear to be coming to an immediate end.

Sinan O?an, who leads a right-wing nationalist coalition called the Ancestral Alliance (ATA) that is currently on about 5% of the vote – and a potential crucial part of negotiations in the event of a run-off – has voiced concerns about the overseas votes.

“We have heard that some manipulations were carried out in the overseas vote counting processes,” he has tweeted. “Vote counting is not done in a healthy environment. I warn the YSK [the Supreme Election Council]. Take the necessary measures immediately and ensure that the vote counting processes are carried out quickly. In addition, we will not allow a fait accompli with a manipulation of foreign votes.”

A spokesman for the Supreme Election Council in Turkey has just said 87.13% of votes have been counted, with long delays in tallying up those that are being counted abroad.

Here are some of those scenes in Istanbul

The official account of Erdo?an’s AKP party just tweeted that “the balcony is ready. The nation is waiting for its leader,” with a video of jubilant scenes of crowds outside their headquarters the capital Ankara. Here in Istanbul, there was a brief burst of what looked like celebratory fireworks just over the Bosphorus – although there is little to suggest from what we know of the count that Erdo?an’s side has reasons to claim outright victory in the presidential election.

The parliamentary results are also hanging in the balance, with the state news agency reporting that the AKP’s coalition could be on course to winning a majority, although it is unclear how many of the votes have been entered into the system of the supreme election council (YSK).

The lira has fallen against the euro as investors voiced disappointment that Erdogan’s era of unconventional economics does not appear to be coming to an immediate end.

The currency also weakened against the dollar, with the lira on track for its worst session since early November.

K?l??daro?lu cotinued: “Do not block the will of this nation. I call out to our democracy workers on the field. Never leave the ballot boxes and election boards. We are here until every single vote is counted.”

He says there have been repeated objections at 300 ballot boxes in Ankara and 783 in Istanbul.