Rishi Sunak says he will take ‘responsible’ decisions on public sector pay and borrowing ‘will make inflation worse’ – UK politics live

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Lord Cooper of Windrush, a former adviser to various Conservative leaders who ended up as David Cameron’s director of strategy in No 10, is advising Keir Starmer, Rachel Sylvester reveals in her Times column. Cooper, who was seen as a Tory “moderniser” when they were a faction (it is hard to think of anyone in the party who would describe themselves in those terms now) was at school with Starmer, and as teenagers the two were in the East Surrey Young Socialists together. But Cooper is not just motivated by friendship; he left the Tories over Brexit, Sylvester reports, and wants Starmer to be PM.

She reports:

Cooper is not the only one who has climbed into Starmer’s rapidly expanding big tent. Nick Boles, the former Conservative minister, is backing Labour on the grounds that it is more “in touch with people’s everyday concerns”. Claire Perry, who served in Theresa May’s cabinet, left the Conservatives a few months ago criticising their “ideology and self-obsession” and praised Starmer’s “sober, fact-driven, competent political leadership”.

Lord O’Neill of Gatley, the former Goldman Sachs banker who was a Treasury minister under George Osborne, has just completed a review on start-ups for Rachel Reeves, the shadow chancellor. Like Cooper he is a crossbench peer and therefore politically unaligned, but he told me: “Sensible people are coming together in the national interest.”

Sylvester also says Cooper has told the Labour leader he needs to define himself more clearly. She says:

In 2009, Cooper, who was at the time in charge of polling for the Tories, asked voters whether they thought it was “time for a change” from the Labour government. An overwhelming 75 per cent said “yes”, but when he asked whether they thought it was time for a change to the Conservatives only 37 per cent agreed. This was precisely the share of the vote that Cameron went on to secure at the general election the next year, denying the Conservatives an outright majority and forcing them into coalition with the Liberal Democrats. Cooper has just repeated the exercise for Starmer. Again, the polling found that the public has had enough of the incumbents – 79 per cent thought it was time for a change from the Conservative government – but when Cooper asked whether they thought it was time for a change to Labour, just 37 per cent agreed, exactly the same figure he found at a similar point leading up to the 2010 election. In 2009, he warned Cameron that he had failed to sufficiently detoxify the Tory party; now he is telling Starmer that he has still not adequately defined his positive pitch.

There will be three statements in the Commons after 3.30pm: first Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, on the “mortgage charter” agreed with lenders on Friday; then James Cleverly, the foreign secretary, on events in Russia; and finally Steve Barclay, the health secretary, on targeted lung cancer screening programme. Each statement lasts roughly an hour.

The UK’s post-Brexit border strategy risks further pushing up food prices, according to a stark warning from representatives of Britain’s fresh produce industry. Joanna Partridge has the story here.

Sharon Graham, general secretary of the Unite union, says that, by scheduling a meeting with regulators on Wednesday (see 12.44pm), the chancellor has in effect admitted that the UK is facing a “profiteering crisis”. But he is not doing enough about it, she said in a statement.

Here we have a tacit acknowledgement from the chancellor that Britain is in the grip of a profiteering crisis. But to be honest, we need to go way beyond talking shops with regulators before we can be convinced the chancellor is serious about tackling Britain’s epidemic of profiteering.

Tinkering at the edges is just not enough. Unite’s own research has shown that if domestic energy had been in public ownership at the time the crisis hit we could have saved every household ?1,800 and cut inflation by 4%. Tinkering at the edges, and talking shops about the crisis are just not enough.

At the Downing Street lobby briefing the PM’s spokesperson made a point of stressing that there are rules against “profiteering” – although he also said he was not saying supermarkets were doing this. (See 12.44pm.)

Downing Street has confirmed that it is going to ask regulators to consider what they can do to ensure any savings producers make get passed on to customers.

At the lobby briefing, asked about Jeremy Hunt’s meeting with regulators on Wednesday, the prime minister’s spokesperson said the chancellor wanted to discuss what actions the regulators are taking, what more could be done to work together, and are there any potential barriers to them going further.

The spokesperson said there was “no legal requirement” for supermarkets to pass on savings. But he went on:

There are rules around things like profiteering – I’m not suggesting that’s the case here.

Equally I think we would of course want supermarkets and others to rightly pass on the savings they are making with the fall in global energy costs. I think that’s what the public would expect and they will vote with their feet if that’s not the case.

The spokesperson also said that, with interest rates going up, the government wanted to ensure that savers benefited. He said:

We absolutely expect banks to pass through higher rates to savers, as they are for mortgage holders, and we’re working closely with the FCA [Financial Conduct Authority] who we know are monitoring it closely.

It’s not only the right thing to do but it also has the potential to reduce inflation because people are encouraged to save rather than spend.

Labour would prioritise devolution over abolishing the House of Lords, Thangam Debbonaire, the shadow leader of the Commons, has told the i in an interview.

She described devolution, in the form of giving new powers to mayors and local authorities, as the priority constitutional reform “which will need to happen early on”. Keir Starmer has said these decentralisation measures will be in a “take back control” bill in Labour’s first king’s speech.

Debbonaire also said Lords reform might initially focus on removing the remaining hereditary peers from the House of Lords.

At the end of last year Labour published a report from the Commission on the UK’s Future, chaired by the former PM Gordon Brown, proposing various constitutional reforms, including abolition of the Lords and devolution of power away from Westminster.

Starmer said he was committed to the recommendations. But he also stressed the importance of consultation, fuelling suspicions that abolition of the Lords (which is unpopular with Labour peers, and which previous Labour government has failed to achieve) may end up being ditched.

In her interview, Debbonaire said the devolution plans would take priority. She explained:

Constitutional legislation takes time and it drains energy. We’ve got a lot to do to fix a country where nothing works from getting a passport to fixing potholes.

I do think the constitutional stuff which will need to happen early on is devolution because one of the ways we are going to deal with some of those problems is by devolving power to people who know what’s going on and have skin in the game …

To be honest I would prefer we got on with the concrete business of trying to repair the country first – but Keir is committed to constitutional reform, it’s very much his thing, he’s backed what Gordon has said, and that is what we will do. But whether that comes in the first year, the second year, I don’t know at the moment.

Debbonaire also said the “easiest” aspect of Lords reform would be removing the 92 hereditary peers remaining in the Commons. She said:

I think the easiest thing on which there is the most consensus among the public and probably even their lordships is that hereditary principle [there are still 92 hereditary peers] is unsustainable.

The 92 hereditaries were allowed to stay as part of a concession to peers offered by the last Labour government when it passed the House of Lords Act in 1999, which got rid of all other hereditary peers. In theory this was supposed to be a temporary arrangement that would only remain in place until full Lords reform was implemented. But further reform never happened.

In his clip for broadcasters, Rishi Sunak reaffirmed his determination to take “responsible” decisions on public sector pay, even if that disappointed staff. He said:

I think everyone can see the economic context that we’re in, with inflation higher than we’d like it, and it’s important that in that context the government makes the right and responsible decisions on things like public sector pay …

People need to recognise the economic context we’re in and I’m going to make the decisions that are the right ones for the country. That’s not always easy. People may not like that, but those are the right things for everybody, that we get a grip of inflation, and that means the government not excessively borrowing too much money and being responsible with public sector pay settlements. That’s what I’m going to do.

When it was put to Sunak that public sector pay was not pushing inflation up, he replied:

Government borrowing is something that will make inflation worse. So the government has to make priorities and decisions about where best to target our resources.

This is what Rishi Sunak said in his clip for broadcasters in response to claims that today’s King’s Fund report (see 9.28am) showed the NHS was going “in the wrong direction” under the Conservatives. He replied:

One of the my five priorities is to count NHS waiting lists. That’s why we’ve put record sums into the NHS since I became prime minister, with record numbers of doctors, nurses, and new ways of doing things which are starting to make a difference.

But we also need to make the decisions that will modernise the NHS for the long term. Today’s example, rolling out lung cancer screening, will really help improve survival rates for lung cancer, something where we are behind other countries, but today’s announcement will help to fix that.

Also later this week we’ll be making a really important announcement. For the first time in its history, the NHS will have a long-term workforce plan to make sure that we hire the doctors, the nurses, and all the other GPs and medical staff that we need for the long term.

Q: There is new evidence out today about the murder of Stephen Lawrence. Do you think the government needs to take action against the Met in the light of their failings in this case?

Sunak says his thoughts are with Stephen Lawrence’s loved ones. He says this is an operational matter for the Met. They have said they are reviewing this.

And that is the end of the Sunak broadcast clip.

Sunak says it is too early to predict what will happen in Russia. But he is in close touch with allies, he says.

Q: Is the UK prepared for the collapse of Putin?

Sunak says the UK has been aware of the potential destabilising effect of the war on Putin’s regime for some time.

It’s too early to predict with certainty what the consequences of this might be, but of course, as we always would be, for a range of scenarios.

UPDATE: Sunak said:

I’ve spoken to the leader of the United States, but also France and Germany over the weekend. It’s a situation that we’ve been monitoring for some time, in the instability that will be caused by Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine.

And what we saw over this weekend as an example of that, coming to the fore, it’s obviously too early to predict with certainty what might happen as a result of this, but I’m in close touch with our allies and we’re monitoring the situation closely.

Rishi Sunak has recorded a clip for broadcasters on a hospital visit to Nottingham. He said the targeted lung cancer screening programme announced today would save thousands of lives.

Asked about the King’s Fund report, and whether the NHS is going “in the wrong direction”, he said he had made the NHS a priority since becoming PM.

And he said another announcement later this week would give the NHS a long-term workforce plan.

Q: Doctors and nurses are leaving the NHS to work abroad because they will get paid more. Why won’t you pay them more?

Sunak says more than 1 million NHS workers accepted a pay offer from the government. It is “very disappointing” that junior doctors have not accepted their pay offer.

He says he has got to take a responsible decision on pay. He says they have to control inflation.

Q: Unions says public sector pay is not driving inflation up?

Sunak says the government has got to control borrowing. It is important not to make the inflation situation worse, he says.

Lord Bethell, a former health minister, has welcomed the announcement from the government today about targeted lung cancer screening. But he thinks the government should go further.

The review by Javed Khan, published last summer, recommended raising the age at which people can buy cigarettes “by one year every year until no one can buy a tobacco product in this country”. Many Tories strongly oppose measures like this on libertarian grounds, and the government has not adopted the plan.

Wes Streeting, the shadow health secretary, has said that in principle he is in favour of Khan’s idea, but that he remains to be convinced that it is practical.

In an interview recorded on Saturday with the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg, Rishi Sunak said that public sector pay awards this year would be “affordable” and “responsible”, even if that “may not always be popular in the short-term”. On Sunday, in an interview with Sky News, John Glen, the chief secretary to the Treasury, signalled that this approach might involve ignoring recommendations from pay review bodies. Kiran Stacey has the story.

This morning Helen Whately, the social care minister, was also asked if the government might refuse to implement in full recommendations from the pay review bodies. She told the Today programme:

We are in the middle of considering some of the pay review bodies who have already reported back to us. Of course the government will … consider their recommendations and respond after doing that.

Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, will ask industry regulators what they are doing about any companies exploiting rampant inflation by raising prices.

Some Conservative MPs are cutting the amount of time they spend at Westminster so that they can concentrate on trying to defend their seats, Lucy Fisher reports in a front page story for the Financial Times. She reports:

Conservative MPs defending marginals are able to apply for “slips” — permission to be away from the Commons — for up to one week each month to dedicate more time to campaigning in their home areas, and are being offered special help to try and improve their chances of re-election, several told the Financial Times …

Members with low visibility have been told they “need to raise their local profile more” by acting like “glorified local councillors”, said one MP involved. They have been urged by the party machine to mail out hyperlocal, single-issue leaflets, engage more with local press and attend a higher number of constituency events.

Fisher also quotes an anecdote, first used in the Sunday Times, about how Tories with majorities of under 15,000 have been told they are at risk. In their Sunday Times story yesterday, Caroline Wheeler and Harry Yorke said:

Conservative MPs have also been privately briefed on the predicted electoral meltdown. Frank Luntz, the US pollster and former adviser to Boris Johnson, sounded the alarm last Wednesday during a Q&A with the 1922 Committee of backbenchers.

During his presentation, Luntz asked MPs present to put up their hands if they had majorities of 15,000 or less. “He said, ‘You’re likely gone,'” one attendee said.

Luke Tryl, the UK director of More in Common, says that if Conservative MPs want to keep their jobs, they would do better focusing on making sure the government does its job properly.

Helen Whately, the social care minister, was the voice of the government on the airwaves this morning and, when asked about the King’s Fund report (see 9.28am), she did not seek to contest its findings. On the Today programme, asked if she accepted that for many cancers, and for conditions such as strokes, outcomes in the UK were not as good as in many comparable countries, she did not challenge the premise of the question. Instead she replied:

We know there are conditions and cancers, for example, and other major conditions like heart disease where, if only we could diagnose and pick these things up earlier, we can help people have much better outcomes.

And that is one reason we are moving to a more integrated healthcare system, with areas across the country looking across whole populations to be able to intervene earlier and support people more preventively and [provide] earlier treatment.

And on LBC, when it was put to her that the performance of the NHS was “shambolic” by international standards, she replied:

One thing we are working on right now as a government is our major conditions strategy.

It is looking at the big killers across the country, that includes cancer and heart disease, and coming forwards with the things we can do to really move the dial on how effectively we manage to prevent, diagnose and treat people with these conditions.

Asked if the Conservatives were “failing on the NHS”, Whately replied:

I will challenge that and one thing I would say is, on our commitment to bring down the waiting times, we have made real progress in bringing down some of the longer waits that have developed following the pandemic.

Good morning. There are few institutions in the UK as loved and respected as the NHS. This is much discussed. But far less attention is given to a more unpalatable truth, which is that by international standards, the NHS is rather mediocre. It scores very well on equity (because it is funded by general taxation, and free at the point of use), but in terms of keeping people alive, it is “more of a laggard than a leader” on many measures, according to a report today from the King’s Fund, a health thinktank.

The King’s Fund has compared health systems in 19 wealthy countries. Here is an extract from its summary.

The UK has below-average health spending per person compared to peer countries. Health spending as a share of GDP (gross domestic product) was just below average in 2019 but rose to just above average in 2020 (the first year of the Covid-19 pandemic, which of course had a significant impact on the UK’s economic performance and spending on health services). The UK lags behind other countries in its capital investment, and has substantially fewer key physical resources than many of its peers, including CT and MRI scanners and hospital beds. The UK has strikingly low levels of key clinical staff, including doctors and nurses, and is heavily reliant on foreign-trained staff. Remuneration for some clinical staff groups also appears to be less competitive in the UK than in peer countries …

People in the UK receive relatively good protection from some of the catastrophic costs of falling ill. Relatively few core NHS services are charged for and certain population groups are exempt from charges. But financial protection is weaker for some services, such as dental care, and there is growing concern that people in the UK may be forced to choose between funding their own care or enduring longer waits for treatment.

But the UK performs noticeably less well than its peers – and is more of a laggard than a leader – on many important measures of health status and health care outcomes. These include health outcomes that can be heavily affected by the actions of a health system (such as surviving cancer and treatable mortality), and outcomes such as life expectancy, which are significantly affected by factors beyond the direct control of any health system.

Here is the full 120-page report. And here is my colleague Denis Campbell‘s write-up.

Rishi Sunak is doing a health-related visit today and he is likely to be asked about these findings. He is publicising a new lung cancer screening programme for England, targeted at people aged 55 to 74 with a history of smoking, and in a statement released overnight he admits the NHS faces “long-term challenges”. He says:

We approach the 75th anniversary of the foundation of the NHS, I want to ensure that it continues to thrive for the next 75 years and beyond.

And while we focus on cutting waiting lists in the short term, we must also look to tackle some of the long-term challenges facing the NHS, including lung cancer which costs 35,000 lives every year. Rolling out screening to high-risk 55-74 year olds will save lives by detecting up to 9,000 lung cancers a year at an early stage.

Here is the agenda for the day.

11.30am: Downing Street holds a lobby briefing.

2pm: Dame Jenny Harries, chief executive of the UK Health Security Agency, gives evidence to the Covid inquiry.

2.45pm: Keir Starmer speaks at the India Global Forum.

After 3.30pm: MPs consider Lords amendments to the national security bill.

3.20pm: Peers consider Commons amendments to the retained EU law (revocation and reform) bill. It is the third time the bill has been sent back to the Lords, following its normal passage through both houses, because MPs and peers can’t agree on key issues.

And Rishi Sunak is on a health-related visit in Nottingham today.

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