Top handicapper gives GOP’s Tim Sheehy edge against Democrat Jon Tester in Montana race shift

The Senate race in Montana was shifted toward Republicans on Thursday by a top political handicapper as the weeks wind down to the November election. 

The seat currently held by Sen. Jon Tester, D-Mont., was changed to “lean Republican” by the Cook Political Report after long being considered a “toss up.” 

The move comes just days after a different political handicapper similarly decided that Republicans were favored to win the Senate seat. 

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Republican candidate Tim Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL, is now expected to win the race against incumbent Tester, per the handicappers. 

Tester was first elected in 2006 and his last re-election bid in the state, won twice by former President Trump, did not coincide with a presidential election. 

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But this time, the incumbent Democrat must share the ticket with Vice President Kamala Harris and face off against the Republican ticket led by Trump. 

The latest race rating changes follow an AARP poll earlier this month that showed Sheehy with a clear lead over Tester. Sheehy defeated Tester 51%-45% in a two-person race and 49%-41% in a multi-candidate field, per the poll. 

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Montana is considered Republicans’ key to gaining the majority in the next Congress, as the seat being vacated by Sen. Joe Manchin, I-W.Va., is already expected to be handily won by Republicans. With pickups in both of these states and no losses, Republicans will take the upper chamber’s majority. 

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The shift in favor of Republicans as it relates to Senate races is occurring at the same time as Trump is appearing to lose his edge in some critical states, according to the most recent Fox News Power Rankings. Both North Carolina and Georgia, which were once considered Republican strongholds, are now rated toss-ups in the presidential race. 

With these presidential race shifts by Fox News Power Rankings, Harris has taken the overall lead in the forecast for the first time. 

Get the latest updates from the 2024 campaign trail, exclusive interviews and more at our Fox News Digital election hub.

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