US finalizing plans to divert gas to Europe if Russia cuts off supply

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The US has helped prepare for the diversion of natural gas supplies from around the world to Europe in the event that the flow from Russia is cut, in an effort to blunt Vladimir Putin’s most powerful economic weapon.

As fears of an invasion of Ukraine have grown, US officials said on Tuesday that they had been negotiating with global suppliers, and they were now confident that Europe would not suffer from a sudden loss of energy for heating in the middle of winter.

Russia has already restricted the flow of natural gas through the pipeline running through Ukraine from about about 100m cubic metres a day to 50 MCM, US officials said. Washington now estimates that almost all of that can be replaced quickly if the pipeline is cut deliberately or as a result of conflict.

“To ensure Europe is able to make it through the winter and spring we expect to be prepared to ensure alternative supplies covering a significant majority of the potential shortfall,” a senior official said.

Fears that Putin would cut off gas supplies have made some European countries, such as Germany, wary of imposing sanctions on Putin if he proceeds with an invasion. The Biden administration also insists that US and European financial sanctions plans are converging, and that the US is preparing export controls on western technology which would cripple Putin’s efforts to diversify his economy.

The impact would be far greater than the response to the 2014 Russian annexation of Crimea, a senior official said.

“The gradualism of the past is out, and this time we’ll start at the top of the escalation ladder and stay there,” the official said.

US discussions with Qatar have been widely reported, but the administration said the discussions have been global.

“The conversation is really broad, with a lot of companies and countries around the world. It’s not centered on one or two suppliers,” an official said. “And by doing that you don’t need to ask any one individual company or country to surge exports by significant volumes, but rather smaller volumes from a multitude of sources.”

The US also said it was preparing restrictions on exports to Russia of hi-tech software and hardware made by the US and its allies. Officials said the measures would affect Russian ambitions in the fields of aerospace, defence, lasers and sensitive, maritime technology, artificial intelligence and quantum computers.

“When we pick these sectors, it’s quite deliberate,” an official said. “These are sectors that Putin himself has, has championed, as the way forward for Russia to diversify its economy beyond oil and gas. And so that would lead to an atrophying of Russia’s productive capacity over time.”