Another member just quit Israel’s coalition. Is a fifth election in three years inevitable?

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It was no secret that Meretz lawmaker Ghaida Rinawie Zoabi was uncomfortable in a governing coalition with a broadly right-wing agenda. Foreign Minister Yair Lapid offered her a way out: the position of Israel’s consul general in Shanghai. That was supposed to have sorted matters. But the events of the last six weeks in Jerusalem, the clashes between police and Palestinians at the Al-Aqsa Mosque and at the funeral of Al Jazeera reporter Shireen Abu Akleh were too much for her. She doesn’t want to represent Israel in China or support its government in the Knesset.

Rinawie Zoabi’s resignation from the coalition on Thursday leaves Prime Minister Naftali Bennett with a minority government and, on paper at least, the opposition now has 61 seats. Likud swiftly tabled a dissolution bill, which is scheduled to be voted on next Wednesday. If the vote passes, Israel will be headed for another election in September – its fifth in 40 months.

But it is still far from certain that all those currently in the opposition will vote in favor, beginning with Rinawie Zoabi herself. In her resignation letter, she wrote that she is no longer a member of the coalition. Is that final, and does it mean she’s automatically joining the opposition in every vote? She didn’t say.

She remains, for now at least, a member of Meretz and her party colleagues are already pressuring her to either return to the coalition or agree to some form of arrangement in which she will at least continue supporting the coalition in crucial votes.

Even if it doesn’t work and Rinawie Zoabi refuses to promise that she will either vote against or abstain on the dissolution bill, not all of the current opposition members want an election right now. In the polls, only Likud and Religious Zionism stand to gain seats; Shas, United Torah Judaism and Joint List are all under threat of losing ground. None of them are inclined to vote for the coalition, but all it would take is for one of them to absent themselves from the vote. A dissolution bill can only pass its final readings with a minimum of 61 votes.

One of United Torah Judaism’s leaders, Moshe Gafni, has already said all options of forming another government in this Knesset should be exhausted before another election is held. It is highly unlikely that those options exist, as Benjamin Netanyahu still lacks seven MKs for a majority of his own – and those will not materialize.

The only other potential prime minister in this Knesset is Benny Gantz, but it is equally improbable, if not impossible, that a majority will coalesce around him.

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Rinawie Zoabi is not the coalition’s only problem. Her decision to take a principled stand and resign will have a ripple effect on other left-wing and Arab-Israeli members. Meretz lawmakers Gaby Lasky and Mossi Raz have equally strenuous objections to the government’s policies on the Palestinian issue, while United Arab List lawmakers will find it difficult to continue voting for the government after a coalition colleague has resigned on these grounds.

Lapid was not just the coalition architect; he is also in charge of maintaining its centrist and left-wing elements. So far he has succeeded under extremely trying circumstances to keep them within the fold. But with the coalition’s first left-wing defection, that is about to become much more difficult, likely impossible.

To keep United Arab List and more Meretz lawmakers from bolting, Lapid needs to give them some form of assurance that the government’s more right-wing inclinations will somehow be reined in. But can he deliver on that front? The defection of Yamina’s Idit Silman last month tilted the government rightward, in an effort to prevent more defections from the prime minister’s own party. Bennett seems to have steadied his own leaky ship – more a small rowboat – but another shift to the left could make it capsize with more defectors jumping off the side.

Meretz lawmaker Ghaida Rinawie Zoabi last year.Gil Eliahu

And then there’s the question of whether Bennett even wants to help Lapid. Rinawie Zoabi is a member of the “Lapid bloc” of coalition parties, and if it is her vote that brings the government down, then Bennett gets to remain as caretaker prime minister during the election campaign and until a new government is formed. As we now know, this can literally take years and countless more elections.

As alternate prime minister, Lapid has only two ways of becoming prime minister in this Knesset: either right-wing coalition members of the “Bennett bloc” bring down the government and he automatically becomes caretaker prime minister; or the government lasts until August 2023. Right now, either possibility looks increasingly remote.

Lapid has six days until the scheduled dissolution vote to try to keep the coalition together, at least until its first anniversary in four weeks’ time.