‘Load-shedding will continue until 2027’

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The trouble at Eskom will not be good news for Cyril Ramaphosa’s campaign to be reelected as the party’s leader at the upcoming ANC elective conference. The utility has forecast that load-shedding will continue until 2027.

Over the past 11 months, South Africa has experienced daily curbs on electricity supply that contributes to the slow economic growth in the country.

Eskom has also failed to prevent incidents of sabotage at some of its power stations.

Power cuts to continue

Eskom has faced chronic power supply constraints for the past 11 months with a record number of days, and consecutive days, of planned power cuts for 2022-23. 

Political analyst Ebrahim Harvey says factions in the ANC who oppose Ramaphosa are likely the ones behind sabotage, trying to re-establish lucrative corruption channels.

“Eskom has long been a battlefield, and African nationalists within the ANC have used Eskom as a cash cow for years,” said Harvey.

A medium-term adequacy report Eskom released on 30 October paints a worrying picture of the problems the utility continues to face internally.

The report aims “to assess over a five-year period the electricity supply shortfall risks that may arise based on foreseeable trends in demand and generation capacity in South Africa”.

The report says the utility struggles to execute planned maintenance at power stations due to internal problems and sabotage.

“The situation will worsen as the plant performance of Eskom’s fleet continues[s] to trend downwards, power stations shut down and demand grows.”

The latest report finds that there is a negative outlook for 2023 to 2027, as the utility’s fleet shows no signs of new improved generation capacity. The report adds that the system will not be able to fully meet demand.

Sabotage increases

Sources investigating Eskom’s sabotage cases claim that offenders at Kusile and Tutuka power stations are being protected by management, who are suspected to be enabling the alleged sabotage.

The investigative sources say according to the patterns they were gathering, they found that the accused saboteurs received access to parts of the power plants from management, in order to break down plant equipment, then obtaining a share of the repair work profits along with senior management.

“It is evident that management has a hand in these cases, some employees are being covered for regardless of the level of the crime. We have raised this with the Hawks and Eskom, that there is foul play with Tutuka management and contractors who have been found with equipment, but were protected, we are currently also investigating the management there,” the source said.

Eskom roped in the help of the Special Investigative Unit and the Directorate for Priority Crime Investigation (Hawks) to investigate several high-profile incidents and ongoing issues with employees over the past few years.

Last month, two incidents of theft by Eskom employees investigated by the Hawks and Eskom Group Security have led to the arrest of four employees at two power stations in Mpumalanga. 

A worker at Tutuka power station was arrested on 17 October for allegedly removing 10 drums of hydraulic oil from the storage facilities.

“The stolen drums of hydraulic oil are valued at more than R800 000. The arrested employee appeared in the Standerton magistrate’s court and was remanded in custody for a bail application,” Eskom said in a statement.

In another incident, three cleaning contractors at the Matla power station were arrested on 17 October for the alleged theft of copper cables. The cables were hidden in a waste storage container. 

The Hawks, together with Eskom’s internal security team, are investigating several alleged crimes, including the theft of coal, diesel, cables, bomb threats, fraud and corruption, sabotage and various others.

The sources in the investigating team added that they had found evidence that diesel worth R200 000 was stolen from Kriel power station in Mpumalanga, where a truck driver was recently arrested for colluding with a clerk to steal the fuel and was helped by the management in the station.

“The receiving officer let the transporter drive out after weighing the diesel load, during the night shift and the fuel will be put in a different truck. Now this will be recorded as having left the station, with Eskom paying the load, but it doesn’t get to the destination.

“Then time comes for maintenance and the diesel is nowhere to be found. Now Eskom has to pay again, which is approved by the management, and no heads are rolling. We are busy looking at those cases,” the Hawks source said.

Eskom’s spokesperson Sikonathi Mantshantsha said the utility was continuing with investigating thieves within the utility and “would ensure those that are caught receive the punishment deserved”.

Eskom to lose revenue

Stolen equipment and other sabotage cases has impeded Eskom’s ability to execute maintenance, which has seen the country experiencing unplanned outages.

Last month, Eskom’s recently appointed board called on Minister Pravin Gordhan’s department of public enterprises to accept that load-shedding will continue for the next 18 months. 

The report suggests that a low-demand forecast will see electricity demand decrease by 0.3% on average a year, while the moderate-high scenario predicts a 1% average annual growth rate linked to a GDP growth rate of about 1.9%.

The report says Eskom’s outages have tended to increase, which suggests its reliability maintenance programme, which aims to do deep refurbishment and maintenance to improve the performance of, in particular, the coal fleet, “in its current form may not be yielding desired outcomes”.

“To complete the outlook, these demand forecasts are compared with plant performance assumptions, and they take into account that Eskom’s generation fleet is expected to reduce by 5 288MW between 2023 and 2027 because of plants reaching their turbine dead-stop dates,” the report reads.

The report found that Eskom’s energy availability factor (EAF) will range between an average low of 58% and an average high of 67% towards the end of 2027. 

The report confirms that power cuts will worsen over the next five years. It adds that the worst-case scenario will see the supply gap widen from 18 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2023 to 30TWh in 2027.

According to Eskom, an energy gap of 18TWh is equivalent to the generation output by Matla power station at full load. The station has an installed capacity of about 3 500MW.

“If additional generation capacity, as set out in the Integrated Resource Plan of 2019, is rolled out according to plan, it will help narrow the supply gap to about 8TWh in 2027, but the study shows that the envisaged pace of implementation of new generation capacity of about 10GW (much of which will be from renewables) will not be enough to fully remedy the supply constraints.”

“Given that the EAF is the biggest lever to system adequacy and the statistically determined trend reflects a further downward trajectory, it is crucial the current maintenance regime is reviewed to improve its efficacy,” the report says.