Biden narrowly avoided a political rebuke. The next two years could be a governing gridlock

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With the next two years of his presidency on the line and Congress in the balance, Joe Biden picked up the phone on Tuesday night and began placing a series of congratulatory calls.

At first, the president offered well-wishes to candidates widely expected to win their races, like Wes Moore, who was overwhelmingly elected to be Maryland’s first Black governor. But soon he was congratulating Democrats in more competitive races, like Virginia congresswoman Abigail Spanberger, whose race was seen as a bellwether of Republicans’ fortunes. And then a text to Pennsylvania lieutenant governor John Fetterman, who won one of the most fiercely contested Senate contests and gave Democrats their only gain in the chamber.

By Wednesday, control of Congress hung in the balance, but Democrats had defied the gloomiest predictions following what one prominent forecaster declared was “the craziest election night I’ve ever seen”. Votes were still being tabulated across the country, but it appears Biden avoided the devastating political rebuke that had been expected, given the depth of the country’s economic malaise and the president’s dismal approval ratings.

In battlegrounds across the industrial midwest, the party beat back a “red wave”, even as Republicans stormed to victory in Florida and Ohio. Several critical Senate races were too close to call in several key states, including Georgia which appeared set to go to a runoff election in December that could determine the majority as it did two years ago.

In the district-by-district fight for 435 House seats, Democrats held on in parts of suburban Virginia, Michigan and Kansas. Republicans, meanwhile, snatched seats in Florida and the chairman of the Democrats’ campaign arm conceded defeat in his New York district, which could clinch a narrow majority in the House of Representatives.

There were losses that stung. Stacey Abrams, a Democratic star, failed to oust Georgia Republican Brian Kemp in a rematch of their bitter 2018 contest. A strong Republican showing in Texas chilled Democratic hopes of turning Texas blue. And even more worrying for the party’s long-term national prospects, Republicans’ advantage in the House appeared due in no small part to a aggressive partisan attempts to redraw election districts to favor their own candidates after the 2020 census.

Despite Democrats’ rosier-than-anticipated outlook, a Republican-controlled House still threatened to upend the trajectory of his presidency. Biden, who turns 80 this month, also faces a looming decision about whether he should stand for re-election in 2024, as Trump teases a presidential bid announcement for later this month. Biden has said publicly that he intends to run, despite concerns among some Democrats about his age and unpopularity, but he has not formally announced the decision.

Trump may not be the only Republican Biden has to worry about in 2024. The Florida governor Ron DeSantis, long seen as a more disciplined, conservative alternative to Trump, declared victory before a crowd chanting “two more years”.

Narrow control of the House could embolden the increasingly pro-Trump wing of the Republican conference, which has demanded a slew of investigations into Biden administration officials and his family.

Some have threatened to impeach the president or his top officials. And Republican leaders have already made clear they plan to use must-pass spending bills as leverage to extract legislative concessions, promising political brinkmanship that could lead to a government shutdown or even a risky debt default.

Biden has mocked Republicans for failing to offer a serious governing agenda, while charging that their plans would endanger popular programs like Social Security and Medicare. Republicans in turn blamed Biden’s policies for deepening inflation and causing chaos at the US-Mexico border.

The Senate, currently divided 50-50 with Kamala Harris as the tie-breaking vote, remained within reach for Democrats on Wednesday, though a result may not be known until after the Georgia runoff next month. With a Democratic Senate majority, Biden could confirm cabinet officials, ambassadors and judges, including a supreme court justice should a vacancy arise. If Republicans win, they could hold up or block Biden’s judicial nominees and federal appointments.

It was no longer possible for Democrats to notch the two-seat majority in the upper chamber: Biden had promised to codify Roe if voters elected two more senators willing to eliminate the filibuster, which requires 60 votes to pass most legislation. Even so, making good on the promise likely required a Democratic House anyway.

Speaking in Chicago last week, Biden was blunt about what Republican majorities would mean for his ability to govern.

“If we lose the House and Senate,” he told Democratic donors in Chicago, “it’s going to be a horrible two years.” He added: “The good news is I’ll have a veto pen.”

There were also signs that the loss of federal abortion protections mobilized young people and women, powering Democratic victories across the country. In Michigan, where voters enshrined abortion rights in their constitution, Democrats won up and down the ballot, even unexpectedly taking control of the state legislature. Voters in California and Vermont also chose to protect abortion in their state constitution. And in reliably red Kentucky, voters rejected an amendment that sought to deny constitutional protections for abortion.

In a statement, Nancy Northup, CEO of the Center for Reproductive Rights, said the elections were “an unmistakable repudiation” of the overturning of Roe v Wade.

“From Kentucky to Michigan to Vermont to California, Americans want their right to abortion protected,” she said.