ANC’s top six for the next five years will end some political careers

Read More

Later today, we’ll know the ANC’s top six candidates for the elective conference that takes place between 16-21 December. It’s an announcement that may spring a few surprises, but it is also likely to spell the end of the political careers of early season campaigners such as Lindiwe Sisulu. Chances of a woman leading the soon to be 111-year old party aren’t likely this season, nor for the next 100 at this rate, with Nkosasana Dlamani-Zuma in a rather unhealthy position too.

It may have taken a bit longer than expected, but it does look like the “premier league” that lobby group made up of former premiers of the Free State – Ace Magashule — North West – Supra Mahumapelo “black Jesus” — and Mpumalanga – David Mabuza – that once dominated in years past have lost all power. This is especially true if Mabuza loses his seat as deputy president. Just what will be his fate in the party with Paul Mashatile likely to take his place – unless there’s yet another conspiracy that we will hear of.  

There are certainly changes afoot in the party with the hold of its former president, Jacob Zuma — challenging for chairmanship himself — now looking to be finally dead and buried. 

It should mark President Cyril Ramaphosa’s final victory lap, however there’s the matter of Phala Phala — and even if he manages to get past a parliamentary enquiry, there’s the matter of breaching foreign exchanges rules, which should come with sanction from the Reserve Bank. A sanction that may mean he would have to “step aside” as party president and in turn, state president. What happens after that isn’t as simple as one would think.

ANC parliamentarians will have to congregate around a choice of president until the 2024 elections take place for one — not so simple a task. If they can’t, then the Speaker of the National Assembly — Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula — who would act as President should Ramaphosa have to vacate her office – may well have to call for an early election. Will the party be ready for such a possibility?

But this is just my mind running away with things, the ANC of course has all of these equations in mind and its centre will navigate past these challenges too. (Believe that, and you’d believe anything I tell you). Whatever the permutations of the Phala Phala report, Zuma’s possible return to jail, Eskom’s continuing collapse, one can be sure 2023 is going to be a continuation of a life lived in interesting times. The Mail & Guardian will be with you throughout.