France v Morocco: World Cup 2022 semi-final – live

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“Not so sure Sweden were shock finalists in 1958,” says Andreas Broman. “The won the 1948 Olympic gold, were bronze medalists in 1950 and included Serie A greats like Nils Liedholm, Gunnar Gren, Nacka Skoglund and Kurt Hamrin. They also played at home.”

Fair points, one and all. I suppose the last shock finalists (unless you count Croatia) were Czechoslovakia in 1962. Either way, I do think the point stands – in the modern era, a lot of underdogs have gone quietly in the semi-final of the World Cup. Poland in 1982, Belgium in 1986, Sweden and Bulgaria in 1994, Turkey and South Korea in 2002, England in 2018.

It’s 40 years since France played in the greatest World Cup semi-final of all

“I’ll buck the trend and come out in support of Charles Antaki here,” says David Zepeda. “I won’t let the feelgood underdog vibes sway me. Morocco defending all day and counter-attacking and generally looking like Greece 2004 2.0 might be effective, but it’s excruciating to watch. Just because they can use this strategy doesn’t mean they should. Morocco have scored five goals all tournament. Not exactly turning on the style.”

“Setting aside catenaccio and whether the perfect game of football ends 0-0, it does seem like the evergreen theory still and always applies: you won’t lose if you don’t concede, though you can’t win if you don’t score,” says Matt Burtz. “In league football, that might only get you draws. In tournament football, however, sometimes you can win the whole darn thing (if you’re good at penalties, anyway). As we say here in the U.S. regarding championships, flags fly forever, and it doesn’t matter how you get there.”

I blame Pep Guardiola for turning all into mad, entitled idealists.

“Completely disagree with Charles Antaki, Rob,” says Jimmy Ainsworth. “Morocco don’t play tiki-taka but they do play out from the back and some of their counter attacking play has been marvellous. It is nowhere near unappealing – Poland v Argentina was the most pathetic performance I’ve seen all tournament, and Holland weren’t much better against the Argentina either (save the last 15 minutes of Woutball) – Maroc were streets ahead of both.”

“Greetings from Virginia, Rob,” writes Eagle Brosi. “I have the suspicion that you’re cursed. Every time you do an MBM it seems that the team you are supporting loses. Am I completely off my rocker for thinking this or are living out some sort of Biblical punishment? Either way, can you share who you’re rooting for?”

Scotland, as I have throughout the tournament. (I haven’t really been supporting anyone, though I suppose I wouldn’t have minded seeing Louis van Gaal win the World Cup playing Total Longball.)

Grinch department

Cameroon legend and occasional brawler Samuel Eto’o predicted a France v Morocco semi-final, which surely makes him the best soothsayer since Biff Tannen? Well, yes, until you realise his prediction for the other semi-final was … Cameroon v Senegal.

WILL IT BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY

The France players jog out to warm up, and are greeted with whistles and jeers. The crowd – around 90 per cent Moroccan – will surely be a factor tonight.

Morocco was under French rule between 1912 and 1956, which adds another layer to tonight’s match. Quite how that layer will manifest, we don’t yet know. The relationship is complicated, not least because a couple of Moroccan players – and their coach Walid Regragui – were born in France. I don’t know enough about the subject to comment on it, and it’s got nothing to do with the fact I’m terrified of saying the wrong thing and being cancelled before kick-off.

“Would Uruguay in 1950 count as a shock winner?” says Julian Menz. “There have also been ‘shock’ finalists… Sweden in 1958 spring to mind.”

True, but not many, and none in the modern era (I don’t count Croatia in 2018 because they were the best team in that half of the draw once it opened up). Uruguay beating Brazil in 1950 was a shock, but – and I know this sounds contradictory – I wouldn’t say they were shock winners. Morocco were 200/1 before the tournament; for them to reach the final, never mind win it, would be unprecedented.

“I agree with Charles Antaki yet there is a faint whiff of patronising status quo about that commonly held way of thinking,” says Peter Oh. “Morocco play like that not because they lack skill or creativity. They play like that because they have faced some of the most glittering heavyweight attacking football forces ever assembled.

“Football is a game in which 11 players try to kick a spherical object into the net of the other team of 11. May Morocco do so more often than France today.”

How did they do that?

Great news for Morocco: the captain Romain Saiss, Nayef Aguerd and Noussair Mazraoui are all fit to start in defence. Well, they start.

Aguerd and Mazraoui replace Yahia Attiyat Allah and Selim Amallah in the only changes from the win over Portugal. That probably means a switch to a back five.

France also make two changes, though theirs are enforced. Youssouf Fofana and Ibrahima Konate replace Adrien Rabiot and Dayot Upamecano, who are unwell. I say ‘unwell’; apparently they’ve caught the flu because of all the air conditioning. Upamecano is well enough to be on the bench.

France (4-2-3-1ish) Lloris; Kounde, Varane, Konate, T Hernandez; Tchouameni, Fofana; Dembele, Griezmann, Mbappe; Giroud.Substitutes: Pavard, Disasi, Guendouzi, Kolo Muani, Veretout, Mandanda, Saliba, Upamecano, Coman, Areola, Camavinga, Thuram.

Morocco (5-2-3) Bono; Hakimi, El Yamiq, Aguerd, Saiss, Mazraoui; Amrabat, Ounahi; Ziyech, En-Nesyri, Boufal.Substitutes: Hamdallah, Zaroury, Sabiri, El Kajoui, Chair, Aboukhlal, Amallah, Ezzalzouli, Dari, Tagnaouti, El Khannouss, Benoun, Attiat-Allah, Jabrane.

Referee Cesar Arturo Ramos Palazuelos (Mexico)

“Yes – everything about Morocco being in the semifinals is good. An African nation,” says Charles Antaki. “An Arab nation. A Muslim nation. Sticking two fingers up to colonial powers along the way; resoluteness; togetherness; and, not least, hugging your mother at the end of the game. Or nearly everything: for the neutral, the actual football they play is pretty dismal, or at least let’s say unappealing. It’s not as mind-numbingly ghastly as I recall Greece was back in 2004, but continuous massed defence, plus the occasional recce forward, is not a great watch. But good luck to them, of course.”

I know what you mean, although I would say that – as with Denmark when they won Euro 92 – some of their counter-attacks have been utterly exhilarating.

Jacob Steinberg’s big-match preview

And now for something completely different: a World Cup semi-final involving an African team. And an Arab team. Even in a football world full of hot air and hotter takes, it’s very hard to overhype this game: France v Morocco, for a place in the World Cup final. Morocco have already made history, but imagine if they get to the final. Imagine if they win the bugger.

First, a warning: tonight could be a thundering anti-climax. The semi-final is usually where World Cup fairytales end. There have been shock winners of the Africa Cup of Nations, Copa America and European Championship – but never the World Cup, and there haven’t been many unlikely finalists either. The altitude of the semi-finals is usually too great for underdogs. But then the altitude of the quarter-finals was supposed to be too great for African teams.

Morocco – or should that be Morocky – have defied logic, fatigue, injuries and a very harsh draw (they won their group, remember) to reach this stage. They’ve already eliminated the teams ranked 2nd, 7th and 9th in the world; now they just have to take care of 3rd and 4th to complete – no offence, Brian – the greatest achievement in football history.

Like Argentina, they have been inspired by extraordinary support, and that should be a factor again tonight. The subconscious says France will win regardless, but that’s based more on history than the evidence of this tournament. When Greece won Euro 2004, many people confused defensive excellence with luck; we shouldn’t make the same mistake with Morocco.

Morocco’s record this decade looks like that of a Pep Guardiola team: P41 W31 D8 L2 F86 A24. Yes, some of the opposition was relatively weak, but they are a team that is used to success. They have two main concerns tonight, and I’m not talking about Kylian Mbappe and Antoine Griezmann. The first is how many of their players have run themselves into the ground against Spain and Portugal; the second is how they will react if they go behind.

That hasn’t happened in the eight games since the remarkable Walid Regragui took over in August, and Morocco are built – both tactically and psychologically – to protect rather than search. But it’s dangerous to make assumptions about their limitations, especially given their extraordinary team spirit. On the evidence of this World Cup, Regragui’s players would crawl to the ends of the earth for him, never mind walk.

I haven’t really spoken about France in this preamble. The main reason is that Morocco are the big story, but it’s also hard to know what to say about a team whose excellence has become so familiar in the last few years. While it hasn’t been plain sailing in Qatar – they still haven’t kept a clean sheet, and it’s easy to forget that they are without at least four of their best XI – they have had the aura of winners from day one.

France are two games away from becoming the first team in 60 years to retain the World Cup, which would mean instant all-time greatness. Three players at different stages of their careers – Mbappe, Griezmann and Olivier Giroud – are strong contenders to win the Golden Boot, the Golden Ball or both.

While this is the biggest game in Morocco’s history, for France it’s just another semi-final – their third since 2016, fourth if you count the Nations League. They won all the others.

Tonight’s winners will play Lionel Messi Team in the final on Sunday. There are two ways this can go: an expected victory for France, or an earthshattering win for Morocco.

Kick off 7pm GMT, 10pm in Al Khor, 8pm in Paris and Rabat.