Could Ramaphosa lose ANC leadership?

When we arrived at the Nasrec accreditation centre on Thursday morning, Cyril Ramaphosa looked locked-in for a second term as ANC president.

Based on the ANC nomination process, the president came into this conference with the support of roughly 63% of ANC branches. He also had the nomination of eight of the ANC’s provinces and two of the party’s three leagues. Going up against a rather weak candidate in Zweli Mkhize, surely the presidency race was a done deal?

Yet here we are on Saturday afternoon and rumours are rife that the presidential race is still very much alive. How can that be?

No, it’s not the Phala-Phala factor. It is, though, the usual horse-trading for positions between the provinces that can always disrupt the above-the-water numbers at an ANC national elective conference.

Ramaphosa’s main difficulty is in who his side backs for the other top six (or seven) positions, and the fallout from those would-be allies of his that are disgruntled by the choices that he makes in that process.

So, to understand the threat posed to Ramaphosa, we need to look at the dynamics at play in some of the other big races.