What will an end to the Nehawu strike do to Malema’s Rubicon Moment

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There’s something about the National Shutdown called by Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) leader Julius Malema that has an almost “Rubicon Moment” feel, not for the country, but for him and the party he started just over ten years ago. 

Just a bit of an explainer: the phrase “crossing the rubicon” is an idiom that means passing the point of no return.

Should 20 March turn into a massive success for the rabble rouser of South African politics since he first emerged onto our national stage with his ascension to the presidency of the ANC Youth League in April 2008, then it will certainly cement him as an influential figure in next year’s general election. In essence, the governing party will have to deal, as its popularity continues to fall as state capacity continues to weaken.

If it doesn’t make a significant dent on our consciousness, what are we to think of both Malema and the EFF. The party and its leader are passing the point of no return.

What may have thrown a spanner in the works, depending on where you sit, is the breakthrough in the impasse between the National Education, Health and Allied Workers’ Union and the state. At the Public Service Coordinating Bargaining Council, they reached an agreement to return to the negotiating table. This strike has been deadly over the past couple of weeks as it has potentially led to deaths at our public hospitals, affecting the most vulnerable in our society.

“We call on all our members and workers at the picket lines to prepare for an orderly return back to work,” the union said in a statement covered by the Mail & Guardian. 

An end to this strike, does defuse some of the tension with the President Cyril Ramaphosa administration. Furthermore, the day of the national shutdown comes on Monday, a day before a public holiday — it’s a long weekend for most industries and schools. For the most part, it’s an economy and a country at large not at work.

These factors may serve to dampen the effect of the shutdown, which is also supported by Zwelinzima Vavi, the general secretary of the South Africa Federation of Trade Unions. I’ve focussed on Malema and the EFF as the strike being a “rubicon moment” but I could have said the same for Vavi as well, who faces a call by Irvin Jim of the National Union of Metalworkers of South Africa to step down from his role. The union is the biggest member of the federation.

The 20th of March  is a big day.