Chinese leader Xi Jinping visited China’s naval force in the South China Sea last week—at exactly the same time as the United States and the Philippines began their largest-ever joint military drills.
Xi visited the navy of the Southern Theater Command on April 11 after China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Eastern Theater Command concluded its military exercises around Taiwan from April 8 to 10.
Expert analysis suggests that while Xi’s gesture signaled his ambition to dominate the South China Sea, the country that could most severely hinder Xi’s goal would actually be Vietnam—which U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has just finished visiting.
China’s military drill was a “gesture of discontent” toward the U.S.-Philippine military alliance, according to Su Ziyun, Director of National Defense Resources and Industry Research at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research in Taiwan.
On April 5, the Philippines announced the addition of four sites under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) with the United States, boosting the country’s capabilities to protect national interests and contribute to collective defense in the region.
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. speaks during the 126th anniversary of the founding of the Philippine Army at Fort Bonifacio near Manila, Philippines, on March 22, 2023. (Ezra Acayan/Getty Images)
However, the CCP interpreted the move as an attempt to heighten regional tensions.
Military analyst Qi Leyi said that both China and the United States are now strategically active in preparedness: not necessarily for engaging in a war, but to be in a position to act swiftly.
He said that regional conflict between the communist regime and neighboring countries around the South China Sea has been frequent.
Taking Malaysia as an example, Qi said that just days after Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim concluded his visit to China, Chinese and Malaysian coast guard ships had a standoff in the South China Sea.
The conflict took place on the 7th in Qiongtai Jiao—also known as the Luconia Breakers—about 150 kilometers off the Malaysian coastline.
Qi said that among the many regional countries in the South China Sea, Vietnam poses the greatest strategic uncertainty for the CCP.
He said, “Vietnam has the Russian-built Kilo-class submarines: China has 12 of them, and Vietnam has six.”
The vast north-to-south range of Vietnamese territory in the oil-rich South China Sea allows Vietnam to “cut off the entire South China Sea from any point,” Qi explained.
Vietnam’s deep-water Cam Ranh Bay is only around 280 miles away from the hotly contested Spratly Islands—claimed by China, Taiwan and Vietnam, and in part by Malaysia and the Philippines—while Sanya, the southernmost tip of China, is more than 620 miles from the Spratly atolls.
“There’s no way China could turn against Vietnam,” Qi said.
Haizhong Ning and Luo Ya contributed to this report.
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