Harmful to Assume War Is Inevitable: Aussie PM

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Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has warned that assuming that “war is inevitable” is just as harmful as the idea that “conflict is impossible” amid tensions in the Indo-Pacific.

“We sometimes hear our region described as a potential ‘theatre’ for conflict,” Albanese said during a major foreign policy speech at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore on June 2.

“As if this is merely a backdrop, a location, an arena for the ambitions of others. Such a view is entirely—and dangerously—wrong.”

Albanese visited Singapore on June 2 for the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) Asia Security Summit, Shangri-La Dialogue (SLD)—an inter-government security conference held annually in Singapore where ministers for defence debate security challenges within the region.

He described the summit as a “high-respected forum” that brought together experts in both defence and diplomacy to build peace, security, and stability with “strategic capability and diplomatic capacity, reinforcing each other.”

Leaders and analysts from across the Indo-Pacific, the Association of South-east Asian Nations (ASEAN), and founding dialogue partners such as Australia attended the event.

Efforts with China

Albanese said Australia strongly supports renewed efforts from the Biden administration in pursuit of “reliable and open channels of communication” between Beijing and the United States. Having guardrails with China and a working relationship that would avoid miscalculations that may result in war.

Such measures are a “matter of simple, practical structures to prevent a worst-case scenario.”

“We should be doing everything we can to support the building of that first and most fundamental guardrail,” Albanese said, adding that the Australian government has put “dialogue at the heart of our efforts to stabilise our relationship with China.”

Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese attends an orchid naming ceremony at the Istana presidential palace during an official visit in Singapore on June 2, 2023. (Roslan Rahman/POOL/AFP via Getty Images)

Through the recognition of differences between both countries in terms of “values and our worldviews,” the prime minister said it is better and more effective to deal directly with China where there are disagreements and to also acknowledge common interests.

Australia once again urged Beijing to remove trade impediments, highlighting that as Australia’s leading trade partner, China has managed to benefit from importing vast quantities of high quality Australian products and resources.

“It’s been made possible by a regional architecture that facilitates fair trade, encourages the sharing of knowledge, spurs innovation, and builds people-to-people connections through education, and tourism, and business, and orderly migration,” Albanese said.

He also reassured Indo-Pacific countries that are wary of Australia’s plan to acquire nuclear-powered submarines under the AUKUS pact.

Albanese acknowledged the “longstanding commitment to nuclear disarmament” where citizens have an “unflinching commitment” to preventing the spread of such “destructive, inhumane, and indiscriminate weapons.”

“In boosting our nation’s defence capability, Australia’s goal is not to prepare for war but to prevent it—through deterrence and reassurance, and building resilience in the region.”

“I can assure you, that when Australia looks north, we don’t see a void for others to impose their will,” Albanese said.

“We see a community of nations whose actions and decisions are essential to building prosperity and preserving peace in the Indo-Pacific.

“Peace is not a gift and it’s never a given, it’s not the default setting of any part of the world. It has to be built, pursued, defended, and upheld.”

Influence and Shared Responsibility of Big Powers

During his speech, Albanese recognised comments made in a speech by Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong from the Boao Forum for Asia (BFA) Annual Conference held in China on March 30.

“Big powers have a heavy responsibility to maintain stable and workable relations with one another,” Albanese quoted.

He said that having the alternatives and the silence of the diplomatic deep freeze “would only breed suspicion,” and it would make it “easier for nations to attribute motive to misunderstanding, to assume the worst of one another.”

Without the “pressure valve of dialogue” at the decision-making level, there is “always a much greater risk of assumptions spilling over into irretrievable action and reaction,” he said.

“The consequences of such a breakdown—whether in the Taiwan Strait or elsewhere—would not be confined to the big powers or the site of their conflict, they would be devastating for the world,” Albanese said.

Albanese said if there were any “unilateral attempt to change the status quo by force: be it in Taiwan, the South China Sea, the East China Sea, or elsewhere,” the risk of conflict or war would always outweigh any potential reward.

Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese (2nd L) and his delegation meet with Singapore’s Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong (2nd R) and officials at the Istana presidential palace in Singapore on June 2, 2023. (Roslan Rahman/POOL/AFP via Getty Images)

Australia-Singapore Ties

Before Albanese gave his speech, he met with Singapore’s acting prime minister, Lawrence Wong, on June 2.

Albanese was due to meet with Singaporean prime minister Lee Hsien Loong, but Lee is isolating with COVID-19.

In the bilateral meeting, the leaders discussed regional strategic outlook, defence relations, expanding trade, and growing cooperation on food and energy security.

Three new initiatives were announced at the press conference: an innovation program on green commerce, a grant program for renewable energy, and initial work to establish a green shipping corridor that will support net-zero shipping between the two countries.

“We know that security isn’t just about defence. It’s also about our capacity to be less vulnerable to shocks. Whether that’s a future pandemic, a trade or cybersecurity shock, or regional or international conflict,” Albanese said.

Wong said Singapore did not want to be in a position where it had to choose between containing China’s rise or limiting America’s presence.

“We welcome new security arrangements like the Quad and AUKUS, so long as they continue to uphold ASEAN centrality, uphold a rules-based order based on international law, which is the case, and we welcome these overlapping frameworks,” he said.

Wong noted the two countries are looking to upgrade the ASEAN-Australia-New Zealand Free Trade Area.

After visiting Singapore, Albanese arrived in Vietnam on June 3 for his first visit as a leader to celebrate 50 years of diplomatic relations with Australia and touched on concerns over Beijing’s approach to the South China Sea.