Israel sees little chance of Iran under Raisi returning to nuclear deal

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Israeli officials assess that the chances of an Iranian return to the 2015 nuclear deal have significantly dropped, following the swearing in of hardline President Ebrahim Raisi last week.

Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and CIA Director William Burns are set to meet Wednesday for their first work meeting since assuming their positions. Iran is one of the main issues they are expected to discuss, following the wave of attacks against Israeli-owned ships and Tehran’s hesitation on whether to resume the nuclear deal with the world powers.

Burns, who is visiting Israel for the first time since his appointment in March, is also expected to meet with the chief of the Mossad and Israel’s president.

Israel has been trying in recent weeks to harness the United States to promote dramatic steps against Iran, if Iran declares that it won’t renew the nuclear agreement. The defense establishment is afraid of a scenario in which Iran will delay its announcement for months to prevent international action against it.

Israeli officials are now trying to ascertain if the U.S. administration is willing to mobilize the international community for a significant pressure campaign against Iran if it rejects the deal, in order to force it to give up its nuclear ambitions for the near future. Israeli sources say that recently there was an attempt to determine if the United States is capable of carrying out its plan to formulate a tougher follow-up nuclear agreement, and to coerce Iran into signing it. The original intention of the United States is to implement the new treaty in 2030, the expiration date of the present agreement.

Sources in Israel estimate that it is possible to present an effective plan to apply significant international pressure that would deter Iran and force it to withdraw from its nuclear plans. Such a move would require the presentation of a concrete American military threat along with significant economic and diplomatic sanctions, which would lead to Iran’s isolation and undermine its attempt to embed itself in the countries of the region, such as Syria and Lebanon.

“Israel has no desire to replace the regime in Iran, but to get rid of the Iranian military threat to it,” an Israeli source who is involved in the contacts told Haaretz.

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Findings gathered by the Israeli intelligence agencies point to significant progress in Iran’s nuclear program recently: According to estimates, although the nuclear treaty allowed it to enrich only 300 kilograms of uranium to a level of 3.67 percent, in effect it deviated substantially from the understandings. According to Israeli estimates, Iran is now in possession of 10 kilograms of uranium enriched to a level of 60 percent, 140 kilos enriched to 20 percent and another 2,500 kilos enriched to 4 percent. According to the information accumulated in Israel, Iran is using hundreds of advanced centrifuges, in violation of the nuclear agreement.

In addition, in the Fordo facility, among other places, enrichment is taking place up to a level of 20 percent, in violation of the agreement. Israel estimates that Iran is about two months away from becoming a nuclear threshold state, and resuming the treaty with the world powers would delay it by about four years.

Defense sources explained that in recent months the Iranian regime has accumulated considerable expertise that no future deal can eliminate. “There’s a strategic difference between Israel’s approach and that of the U.S. administration,” explained an Israeli source. He said, “Israel will do everything possible to prevent Iran from reaching the status of a nuclear threshold state, long before it actually possesses nuclear weapons. The Americans, on the other hand, have a different goal and will work to prevent a situation in which Iran possesses nuclear weapons in practice.”

The source said that “Even if Israel does not declare it officially, our goal is to reach an agreement that will block or prevent Iran from achieving military nuclear capabilities. Israel is in favor of a deal, it is opposed to a bad deal.”