‘Generational catastrophe’ — Motshekga sounds alarm on missed school

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Basic Education Minister Angie Motshekga has laid it down in unequivocal terms that pupils cannot afford to miss any more school. To do so would put not only their futures at risk but that of South Africa’s economy. 

At a press briefing at the weekend, Motshekga revealed the startling estimate that disruptions over the pandemic period have reversed the last 20 years of gains in the education sector. With Covid-19 not disappearing from people’s lives for the foreseeable future, the department appears to be readying itself to make some difficult decisions. 

Armed with new research into the effects of a stuttering school syllabus, the minister painted a dim picture of what missed days mean for the nation’s learners. 

“Research indicates that lost school days lead to foregone learning losses,” she said. “International experience confirms learning losses experienced during pandemics lead to long-term adverse effects, including learners obtaining lower overall educational value, and ultimately lower lifetime earnings.”

Motshekga called on Professor Martin Gustafsson to elaborate on the data that the department is now using to inform its decision-making.

“A generational catastrophe is not an exaggeration,” he warned. “This is not just about problems or consequences now, but consequences for our lifetime.

“What’s particularly concerning is losses at the foundation phase. This is where fundamental skills are developed which then serve learners for their entire schooling.”

Based on the evidence of one study that investigated the reading levels of primary school children, 80% of the progress that should have been made was lost last year. Gustafsson added that it would be reasonable to expect a similar percentage across multiple grades and subjects.

The department estimates that, on average, learners lost 54% of the school year in 2020. Gustafsson emphasised, however, that the true cost runs exponentially higher than the proportion of time spent outside of a classroom.

“With these disruptions, schooling does not happen as it did before,” he said. “There’s also forgetting that happens. These disruptions have effects on learners that go beyond what one might think by just looking at the time that learners have lost … If children are not in contact with teachers, especially children from disadvantaged communities, learning does not happen as it should.”

The findings, he argued, are also in keeping with those emerging globally. The World Bank, for instance, estimates that the lifetime earnings of those who have incurred disrupted school time decrease by 5%. That figure is an average and would be a lot worse for many.

The final piece of bad news is that it would be virtually impossible to reverse this decline. The best South Africa can hope for  is to minimise it.

The debate over schooling plans is likely to intensify as a second calendar year of disruptions comes to a close and the consequences filter in. The day before Motshekga’s briefing, the Daily Maverick published the views of multiple experts that described the  crisis “as a ticking time bomb” – a view which the department evidently concurs with.

Despite the urgency of the matter, however, early October holidays are back on the schedule. As reported by Timeslive, the department was eager to make up the lost time but soon had their plans shot down by governing bodies and teachers unions.

Indeed, throughout most of the pandemic, stakeholders have regularly found themselves at odds with the basic education department. The weekend’s briefing itself comes weeks after new social distancing protocols for primary schools were rejected by the same unions.

Judging by the language at the weekend briefing, however, pupils should expect less unforeseen breaks if all goes to plan. 

“Experts keep on reminding us that children are less susceptible to Covid-19 infections,” Motshekga said. “Our efforts to introduce comprehensive safety protocols in schools, and the vaccination of teachers and support staff, have created the possibility to keep schools open, and a sustained return to regular attendance.”