A Madikizela win against Mabuyane could tilt the scales against Ramaphosa’s camp

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At least five ANC regions, some due for an elective conference in the Eastern Cape, are said to be lobbying current provincial treasurer Babalo Madikizela to go head to head with provincial chair Oscar Mabuyane for the leadership position when the Eastern Cape ANC holds its elective conference in December. 

Well-placed sources say Madikizela, who has been long touted as a viable contender against Mabuyane, is firmly considering contesting the provincial elections. 

This comes as Nelson Mandela Bay heavyweight and former president Jacob Zuma loyalist Andile Lungisa’s suspension was set aside last week by the ANC’s national disciplinary committee.  

Lungisa’s faction which has links with the so-called radical economic transformation (RET) faction in the party is said to be in talks with Madikizela and his key lieutenants, including Nelson Mandela Bay regional task team coordinator Luyolo Nqakula, in a bid to form one bloc to ultimately take power from Mabuyane. 

A move against Mabuyane could lead to a bruising defeat for Gwede Mantashe, the ANC’s national chair. He is said to have expressed ambition to take over the position of deputy president when the party goes to its national conference next year. But Madikizela’s faction favours Paul Mashatile, the party’s treasurer general, as the next deputy president. 

But sources in the province say that the move against Mabuyane will have little effect on President Cyril Ramaphosa whom they see as the only viable option to lead the party for a second term. 

According to well-placed sources, there have been several meetings between regional leaders in five Eastern Cape regions for a strategic plan for Madikizela to take over. 

Madikizela is said to enjoy support from the Alfred Nzo, Amathole, Joe Gqabi, Buffalo City and Nelson Mandela Bay regions.

The Alfred Nzo region, where Madikizela first emerged on the political stage, negotiated with Mabuyane’s slate for the urban planner to emerge and ultimately catapulted him from a relative unknown into a provincial power broker. 

Madikizela, who has close ties with embattled former health minister Zweli Mkhize, led the Mkhize faction in the province during the watershed Nasrec 2017 elective congress. 

The Amathole region is controlled by Teris Ntuthu, the regional secretary and a rival of Mabuyane. 

Mabuyane has also fallen out of favour with Buffalo City metro regional ANC chairperson Phumlani Mkolo, who was called to step aside after the National Prosecuting Authority reinstated charges against him and 14 others in the Nelson Mandela funeral scandal. 

The Mabuyane-led provincial executive committee (PEC) is also facing tension with its former allies in the OR Tambo region after the five-year suspension of municipality speaker Xolile Nkompela and deputy mayor Robert Nogumla was overturned by the national disciplinary committee. 

Kompela, who once lobbied for Mabuyane against the then chair, Phumulo Masualle, is also said to have changed alliances and now favours Madikizela as chair. 

The OR Tambo region is the second biggest ANC region after eThekwini and arguably one of the most influential regions of the ANC. It was central to the failed attempt at a third term by former president Thabo Mbeki. The region voted instead for former president Jacob Zuma at the watershed Polokwane conference.

The proposed slate to run against Mabuyane is said to be: 

Chair: Babalo Madikizela Deputy chair:  Xolile KompelaSecretary: Teris NtuthuDeputy secretary: Weziwe Tikana (Chris Hani region) Treasurer: Babalwa Lobishe / Andile Lungisa (Nelson Mandela Bay)

Sources have told the M&G that Madikizela and Mabuyana will wrestle it out for control of the OR Tambo region when it goes to the conference this month. 

“So far it looks like our chances are looking good,” one Mdikizela lobbyist said. “We stand a good chance to remove the incumbent [Mabuyane] but we must first see how the regional conferences go then we can openly start campaigning. There is intense lobbying on both ends. Mabuyane’s faction might just dangle a carrot in front of us and things may change, but I honestly don’t see it happening. Our chances are looking good, we have strong allies in all the key regions and those people are well known on the ground.” 

A PEC member, who is aligned with Madikizela, explained how the provincial treasurer rose from obscurity and became a formidable politician within one term in provincial politics. 

“He has emerged as pragmatic and … solution-orientated, and he has actively gone out to attend to unite the province, reaching out to friends and foes who he contested against in the last provincial conference, [and]  in the process winning hearts and minds,” the PEC member said. 

Another PEC member said although Madikizela might stand a chance of taking over the provincial leadership reins, there were also parallel discussions to propose Mabuyane as Madikizela’s deputy. 

“What we have seen is that he [Mabuyane] is a hard worker and we don’t want to lose him in the province. There are talks but those talks are not at an advanced stage because of the local government elections. I think it is premature for comrades to say that he is ahead in five regions when those regions have not yet gone to conference [and] equally, because he is an unknown does not mean he will not be favoured by branches. It is still early days in my opinion. Regions need to go to conference. The election work needs to be done and then after we can start lobbying vigorously,” the PEC member said.

Madikizela could not be reached for comment by the time of publication. 

Last month Mabuyane indicated that he would run for a second term. 

Mabuyane leads one of the ANC’s biggest provinces after KwaZulu-Natal and Limpopo. Winning over ANC delegates and branches when the party heads to its 55th national conference next year — alongside other Ramaphosa allies such as the ANC’s KwaZulu-Natal’s secretary, Mdumiseni Ntuli, and the party’s Limpopo secretary, Soviet Lekganyane — will guarantee Ramaphosa a second term in office. 

Mabuyane said that he believed the current provincial leadership had put the once-divided Eastern Cape on a more stable footing. 

“If it’s not broken, why do you fix it? As long as people are still available to serve when they are nominated. All of us will be nominated, if possible, by branches. If we are not nominated that would not mean we must go around and fight with every­one. I’ve done my part, I’ve been in the leadership of the province for almost 12 years, but there is still a lot of work that needs to be done,” he said.

“As long as I still have the energy to wake up and look at my people and see their situation, and believe that there is still a bit of energy to change their lives, I will forever be available to do so and serve our people,” Mabuyane added.