Tuesday briefing: Britain’s winter power struggle

Top story: household budgets face ‘triple whammy’

Morning everyone. I’m Martin Farrer and these are the top stories today.

Britain faces a winter of discontent thanks to rising household costs, No 10 has been warned, as firms said the energy price shock could trigger a three-day week for factories and further gaps on supermarket shelves. Damian Green, a former cabinet minister, warned of the prospect of “very, very difficult times ahead for hundreds of thousands of people in this country”, because of higher energy bills compounded by the universal credit cut and next year’s rise in national insurance. Labour said many households would be crippled by the “triple whammy” of energy price rises, the NI rise and universal credit cut. However, No 10 dismissed suggestions of a looming winter crisis as “alarmist”, and business secretary Kwasi Kwarteng said there was no question of “the lights going out”. Food producers say the government should subsidise the fertiliser plants that produce the CO2 essential to much of the sector – including for packaging, fizzy drinks and animal slaughter – amid fears over shortages in supermarkets.

We look at what has caused the energy crisis, from China’s post-Covid boom to Russia’s gas games. And industry experts say it could have been avoided if the government had been quicker to shift the energy market towards renewables.

Taking flight – As Boris Johnson prepares to meet Joe Biden in New York today for talks on climate, security and the pandemic, he welcomed the president’s decision to lift the US travel ban for UK citizens in early November. But the PM said progress on a post-Brexit trade deal was unlikely, because the president has “a lot of fish to fry”. Downing Street sought to claim credit for news that the UK is among the scores of countries whose citizens will now be able to travel to the US if they are double-vaccinated. Meanwhile, the prime minister refused to guarantee that he will not have to disrupt Christmas gatherings for a second year running by imposing Covid restrictions. Covid has now killed as many Americans as died in the 1918-19 flu pandemic after the total passed 675,000.

Schools help – Forty per cent of girls aged 16 to 17 are unhappy with their mental health, more than double the rate for boys, according to a report that calls for the “greatest investment possible” in catchup for schools as part of a “new deal” for children. The report, from the children’s commissioner for England, Dame Rachel de Souza, calls for improved services for children struggling with attendance, more tutoring support, and a voluntary extension to the school day for sporting and enrichment activities.

Trudeau wins – Justin Trudeau has won a third term as Canada’s prime minister with his Liberal party remaining the biggest group in parliament after a snap election. With results still trickling in, Trudeau was poised for another minority government after his centre-right opponent conceded defeat. But Trudeau’s failure to ensure a majority will raise larger questions about his future as the head of the Liberal party.

Lawsuit served – Prince Andrew has been served with a sexual assault lawsuit after the relevant paperwork was delivered to his US lawyer, according to lawyers for his accuser, Virginia Giuffre. She is seeking damages after alleging she was forced to have sex with Andrew when she was 17. The prince vehemently denies the claims. Her lawyers said the prince had officially been served with the papers on 10 September, but his legal team disputed the claim.

‘Woke, tender’ Bond – Charlie Higson, the author of the Young Bond novels, says Daniel Craig – who plays cinema’s most famous spy for the fifth and final time in upcoming film No Time to Die – has given us a “woke, tender” 007. Higson told the Radio Times that the scene in Casino Royale where Craig comes out of the sea in swimming trunks had inverted the franchise’s traditional gender roles.

Today in Focus podcast

It came out of the blue – but the new military pact between Australia, the UK and the US could transform international relations for a generation. The Guardian’s defence and security editor, Dan Sabbagh, explains the Aukus deal that has enraged Beijing

Lunchtime read: A day on the bins in broken Brexit Britain

“Some of them look at you like you’re scum,” says Torquay bin man Andy Gee as he battles to ensure ethat everyone gets their waste and recycling picked up despite staff shortages driven by Brexit and the pandemic. Sirin Kale joins him for a day of maggots and mayhem.

Sport

Steve Stricker, the US Ryder Cup captain, has declared the Bryson DeChambeau versus Brooks Koepka dispute a “non-issue” before this weekend’s event at Whistling Straits. Stricker revealed he has received promises from the pair that lingering and mutual antipathy will be left aside as the US seek to reclaim the trophy from Europe. Andy Murray has urged British tennis to build upon Emma Raducanu’s stunning US Open success to avoid another decades-long wait for home-grown glory, but says he won’t comment on the 18-year-old’s future performances as he feels it is “incredibly irritating” and “not helpful”. Anthony Joshua has suggested his world heavyweight title defence against Oleksandr Usyk at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Saturday night could be his most difficult fight since he beat Wladimir Klitschko in an epic battle in April 2017.

Eddie Jones is set to usher in the next stage of England’s 2023 World Cup preparations when he names his first squad of the new season on Tuesday with Billy Vunipola believed to be among the senior players whose places are in jeopardy. Marcos Alonso says he has stopped taking the knee before matches this season because he feels the power of the action has been diluted. England have been accused of “failing a member of their cricket fraternity” after cancelling next month’s tour of Pakistan.

Business

Sir Lucian Grainge, the chief executive of Universal Music, says the EUR40bn flotation of the world’s largest record company this week shows there is plenty of growth yet to come from a new wave of digital listening on devices. Grainge, who has rebuilt the group with shrewd moves such as buying EMI, says the listing provided the opportunity to build Universal into the “next generation music company”. Asian stock markets are down again as jitters over Evergrande continue despite a statement from the chairman saying the group will “walk out of its darkest moment”. The FTSE100 is set to bounce back by 0.5% this morning while the pound is on $1.367 and EUR1.165.

The papers

The Guardian leads with the energy story headlined “Prepare for winter of discontent, UK warned”. The FT lead is “Kwarteng insists UK ‘lights not going out’ as gas crisis intensifies”, and the Mirror says “Power struggle”. The Times focuses on the the business side with “Dozens of energy firms will be left to collapse”, and the Telegraph has “Price cap must go, say energy companies”. The Express says ministers have vowed: “We’ll protect you from scourge of rising fuel bills”. The Mail has more on its campaign about doctors: “Boris: GPs must see us face to face”, and the Sun leads with the horrific killings in Derbyshire: “Sleepover massacre”. The Daily Record leads on the Scottish ambulance crisis with “Here comes the fire brigade”, and the Scotsman has “Shortage of CO2 threatens hospitality industry”.

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