Israel’s wishful thinking on Iran: Cyberattacks can topple the regime

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Over in the IDF’s Gaza Division, the hypothetical scenario it practiced in the middle of the week starts with Syria: A large number of Iranian security personnel are killed in an air strike attributed to Israel. Iran decides to take revenge through a series of offensive operations, from the north (Hezbollah and Shi’ite militias) and from the Gaza Strip (Islamic Jihad followed by Hamas).

And so it happened that on Tuesday morning the lone swimmers at Zikim Beach, south of Ashkelon, witnessed soldiers rushing through the sands, trying to locate a squad of divers who, as part of the exercise, simulated a landing by a Palestinian commando force on their way to a deadly attack in a nearby community. Similar scenarios were enacted along the entire Gaza perimeter fence: civilians killed by mortar shelling in one of the kibbutzim, followed by anti-tank missile fire on the army’s rescue forces; another infiltration, in another sector, through a tunnel.

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The exercise, eventful and intense, lasted a day. In the end, against the background of hypothetical Israeli responses, Israel was on the verge of war in the Gaza Strip. Like other scenarios practiced by the IDF over the past two years, it illustrates two basic assumptions: the various battlefields affect each other and are influenced by decisions and directives coming from Iran; and even a localized event can develop quickly into a series of mutual strikes, escalating quickly to the verge of war in one or more theaters.

At the forefront of Israeli security attention at the moment is the friction with Iran, including developments in Syria, which in extreme circumstances could spread to Lebanon and Iraq as well. Last Tuesday, the operation of a large part of the gas stations throughout Iran was disrupted. Added to the cyberattack was a prank: Hackers hacked into electronic bulletin boards and posted messages blaming the spiritual leader, Ali Khamenei, for the situation. A similar stunt occurred last May and was attributed to Israel, following a cyberattack that caused severe disruption to shipping navigation in the southern Iranian port of Bander Abbas.

These events stimulate the imagination. But if it is indeed an Israeli move, it also reflects frustration, not just activism. Prime Minister Naftali Bennett believes that his predecessor, Benjamin Netanyahu, did more talking about Iran than acting. Bennett claims he inherited a broken vessel. The Iranian nuclear project took a leap forward precisely after the United States withdrew from the nuclear deal three years ago, and Israel’s military preparations to attack the nuclear sites were neglected.

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Reports of cyberattacks, and of the resumption of air force preparations for an attack, show that Israel is still nonetheless doing something. In practice, Israel’s impact is currently minimal. It is the United States that is dictating the policy, seeking to resume negotiations over the nuclear deal and meanwhile encountering Iranian refusal and stalling tactics (on Tuesday Tehran promised to resume talks next month, but only with European countries – Britain, France and Germany). From the stands, Israel is anxiously watching what’s happening.

There is an argument that cyberattacks will undermine the stability of the regime. At the moment, this seems like wishful thinking. Iranian authorities have already overcome violent fuel riots, in which the security forces killed some 200 protesters about two years ago. It is clear, though, that the chaos creates discomfort for the regime. Still, in the meantime it is highly doubtful that such chaos is endangering it. But Israel is active – and from the point of view of the defense establishment, proactive moves are always better than being a passive bystander.

A group of protesters demonstrates against the Islamic Republic’s troubled economy at the historic Grand Bazaar in Tehran, Iran, 2018.AP

The degree of flammability on the northern front is seen in the large number of attacks attributed to Israel, the frequent Iranian threats and various reports of the advancement of Iranian air defense systems westward to Iraq and Syria. The day-to-day security level of the average Israeli citizen so far is high, despite the seasonal conflict in Gaza. But the increasing frequency of incidents signals that this inevitably will not last much longer.

As for Gaza, it appears the government is making a considerable effort to maintain calm. The increase in the number of permits for Gazans to work in Israel, along with various economic concessions, indicate the idea is to buy as long a period of quiet as possible with Hamas, in order to focus on Iran and the north.