The Israeli right thinks this photo can stave off its worst nightmare

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Ayala Hasson, anchor of Channel 13’s weekend news show, had a bombshell: Razi Issa, a senior member of the United Arab List and close adviser to its leader Mansour Abbas, was also the CEO of a nongovernmental organization called Support 48, which operates under the aegis of the party’s parent organization, the Israeli Islamic Movement. One of Support 48’s aims is to help the families of Palestinian “martyrs” and prisoners, and Hasson had footage of Issa visiting the Gaza Strip to distribute financial aid and meeting with at least one prominent Hamas member.

At least, the report looked like a bombshell – especially on the weekend before the government in which United Arab List is an integral member is set to pass a state budget that earmarks 53 billion shekels ($17 billion) for the Arab community.

To underscore that, Hasson reported that a meeting between senior officials in the Finance Ministry’s budget department and the Shura Council (the Islamic body that directs the United Arab List) had taken place in a Support 48 office.

The inference was not stated in the broadcast but was clear enough, especially when two images of Issa – one with a Hamas member; the other of Abbas signing the governing coalition agreement with Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid five months ago – were placed side-by-side: the new state budget would also provide funds for Hamas.

Shocking if true. But a closer look at the facts, provided to Hasson by Ad Kan, a right-wing group that claims to have infiltrated “organizations that smear Israel’s good name, and that of its citizens and soldiers,” had no proof of that being the case. All of Support 48’s funding comes from private donations and there is no item in the new budget allocating it any funds. Besides, as an Israeli citizen, Issa visited Gaza in 2019 with a special permit from Israel’s security authorities. If they thought he was helping Hamas in any way, he would be in prison, not roaming Gaza freely with their blessing.

But facts count for little right now in the battle being waged by the right wing against the Bennett-Lapid government.

Under Benjamin Netanyahu’s direction, the campaign has focused on one target: the United Arab List’s participation in the coalition. Backed up by polling, Netanyahu knows this is the government’s weakest link. Especially now that COVID-19 booster shots have brought down the latest wave of infections and, four and a half months since its inauguration, the government seems to be relatively stable and on the verge of finally delivering a new budget, despite its disparate composition.

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No sooner had the item been broadcast on Friday than opposition outriders, politicians and activists were filling social media with “Money for Hamas instead of our soldiers” slogans. By Monday morning, there were already roadside banners, with the imprints of two bloody hands and the pictures of Abbas and Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar.

Demonstrators attending the right-wing rally in Tel Aviv on Monday.Ilan Assayag

This set the stage nicely for the right-wing rally “for a Jewish and Democratic state” in Tel Aviv’s Habima Square on Tuesday, where it was to be the major theme of the evening, complete with a video that combined Hasson’s voiceover with relatives of terror victims blaming the government for “sending money to the murderers of our children.”

Among the speakers was neo-Kahanist MK Itamar Ben-Gvir, who called on the Arab lawmakers to “go to Syria!” But it was impossible to distinguish between him and the Likud lawmakers at the rally. “The Jewish state is slipping between our fingers – for the benefit of Hamas and the benefit of Bennett the megalomaniac, the liar, the thief,” screeched Likud’s Galit Distal Atbaryan, Netanyahu’s handpicked candidate on the party’s most recent Knesset slate.

“They are worse than our enemies,” said MK Patin Mula of the government, adding: “Mansour Abbas takes our money and murders our soldiers.”

“Money for shahids [martyrs] – they have,” shouted former minister Miri Regev. “For the soldiers of the Israel Defense Forces – they haven’t.”

Most reporters and pundits saw the Tel Aviv rally through the lens of this week’s Knesset battle to pass the budget and Netanyahu’s ongoing battle to remain politically relevant once the budget’s passing drastically reduces his chances of bringing down the government anytime soon.

But though some of the rally’s speakers pledged undying allegiance to Netanyahu, and much of their focus was on the budget’s funds allegedly “going to Hamas,” it would be a mistake not to view it in a much wider context – one way beyond Netanyahu’s personal fate.

Within the opposition, there is quiet but growing recognition that Israel is entering the post-Netanyahu era and his chances of ever returning to power are shrinking by the day. Furthermore, they believe Abbas when he says Netanyahu was prepared to give him pretty much what he’s getting now from the coalition, in return for his support. They’ve all dealt with Netanyahu before and know him well enough.

Their biggest fear is of a precedent that will legitimize Arab participation in future governments. For them, this is a much bigger threat than losing Netanyahu, who has undoubtedly been the right’s biggest electoral asset (at least until the four stalemated elections of 2019 to 2021).

A protester holding a poster stating “Bennett the liar!” at the right-wing rally in Tel Aviv on Tuesday.Ilan Assayag

The right-wing parties in the current coalition have the excuse that if they weren’t sitting with the United Arab List, then Netanyahu would be. So what happens when Netanyahu is no longer on the scene and that excuse has gone? That’s why the right-wing in opposition is so focused on delegitimizing the current coalition’s makeup. So it doesn’t happen again.

Arab parties’ potential support for future centrist governments doesn’t just shift the balance of power between the main political blocs. It could also have a galvanizing effect, driving up turnout among Arab Israeli voters who previously stayed home as they thought their vote didn’t matter because their representatives were destined to remain in the opposition forever.

The success of the United Arab List in negotiating both a 53-billion-shekel aid package for the Arab community and formalizing the status of illegally built homes could boost not only its own result in the next election but also that of other Arab parties. Unlike those currently forming the Joint List, they could prioritize being part of the government over Palestinian-nationalist demands.

Israel’s Arab community is nearly twice the size of the ultra-Orthodox community. However, due to its low turnouts and eternal opposition status, it has had nowhere near the same political clout as the Haredim. That changing is the ultimate nightmare of the right-wing/religious alliance, and they will fight tooth and nail to prevent it from happening.