Two wins and one stinging loss for AIPAC in Tuesday Democratic primaries

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WASHINGTON – The American Israel Public Affairs Committee emerged from Tuesday’s primary races in North Carolina and Pennsylvania with mixed results. Two of its three endorsed candidates emerged victorious, both in North Carolina, while its candidate’s progressive opponent won in Pennsylvania despite unprecedented efforts to sway voters against her candidacy.

The results provide a Rorschach test of sorts for the sustainability and staying power of pro-Israel organizations’ attempts to dramatically alter Democratic primary races via previously unimaginable levels of spending. The pro-Israel groups spent millions of dollars on attacks ads – the majority of which had nothing to do with Israel – against their preferred candidates’ progressive challengers, causing significant alarm among those already concerned with the tone of the debate surrounding the Democratic Party’s support for Israel.

It has brought new urgency, meanwhile, to discussions over super PACs’ influence on elections – touching not only on negative ads, but disproportionate fundraising on behalf of candidates.

The AIPAC-backed candidate in North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District, Don Davis, defeated progressive challenger Erica Smith by nearly 22,000 votes, earning 63.2 percent of the vote to his challenger’s 31.1 percent. The pro-Israel, establishment-endorsed candidate in the Tar Heel State’s 4th Congressional District, Valerie Foushee, defeated progressive challenger Nida Allam by 8,000 votes – a nine-percent margin.

These victories were largely fostered by more than $5 million invested in the two races, where AIPAC and Democratic Majority for Israel spent heavily to attack Smith and Allam, beyond promoting its candidates of choice. Following the decisive victories, however, the pro-Israel organizations claimed these were big-picture wins that went beyond the state.

“With DMFI PAC’s support, Sen. Davis beat State Sen. Erica Smith in North Carolina’s [1st] District, while voters in North Carolina’s 4th District wisely rejected the divisive politics represented by Sen. Foushee’s opponent, who was endorsed by some of the most anti-Israel voices on the far left. Tonight’s results demonstrate yet again that being pro-Israel is not only wise policy but good politics,” DMFI PAC said in a statement.

“These winning campaigns send a clear message that support for the U.S.-Israel relationship is both good policy and good politics. While these victories are positive,” said the AIPAC-affiliated super PAC United Democracy Project, “we have a lot more work to do to build the broadest possible pro-Israel coalition in Congress.”

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This positive momentum, however, was largely stifled at the end of the night when progressive candidate Summer Lee defeated AIPAC-backed opponent Steve Irwin in a nail-biter of a race. She shockingly closed a five-figure vote deficit after trailing Irwin all night, taking the lead by 60 votes with 95 percent. By the time 99 percent of the votes had been counted, Lee declared victory, while Irwin had yet to concede as of publication time.

Lee’s apparent victory, which comes despite pro-Israel super PACs spending more than $3 million on her race, will likely significantly buoy progressive groups and candidates who are against AIPAC’s efforts to sway primary races.

“This is a resounding defeat against Republican-funded Super PACs and the corporate-friendly establishment,” said Justice Democrats Executive Director Alexandra Rojas. “Democratic voters don’t want to be sold corporate millionaire candidates, they want working-class progressive leaders that will build a people-powered movement for everybody.”

This was echoed by Allam, who said after her defeat “this election showed just how powerful we are. Right-wing super PACs and a billionaire living in the Bahamas had to spend over $3.6 million to defeat our movement in one election,” adding “right wing billionaires and Islamophobes are scared of our movement, and that gives me hope, because it means we are organizing to deliver real change for our working families.”

The next case study will be next Tuesday, in the Texas 28th Congressional District runoff between AIPAC-endorsed Rep. Henry Cuellar and progressive challenger Jessica Cisneros. AIPAC has already spent $1.3 million on this race, and will likely boost its spending on the heels of Tuesday’s mixed results.