Oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively halted despite a U.S.-backed ceasefire that hinged on reopening the critical waterway, raising fresh questions about whether Iran is following through on a central condition of the truce.
A backlog of roughly 3,200 vessels — among them 800 tankers and cargo ships — has built up west of the strait, with ships idling as operators wait for clarity on whether it is safe to pass.
No oil tankers have risked the journey in recent days, according to Matt Smith, an analyst at Kpler, a data and intelligence company.
“We’re not seeing any, any, any oil products passing through there,” Smith said. “So for all intents and purposes, the strait remains closed. And this is the leverage that Iran has.”
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Three vessels passed through the Strait on Thursday, according to Smith, two of them Iranian-flagged and one a dry bulk carrier.
“Iran is doing a very poor job, dishonorable some would say, of allowing Oil to go through the Strait of Hormuz. That is not the agreement we have!” President Donald Trump warned on Wenesday.
Nearly 20,000 mariners essentially are stranded in the Persian Gulf throughout the crisis, according to the International Maritime Organization.
On Wednesday, one Sri Lanka-flagged vessel passed inbound through the strait, while four dry bulk carriers — flagged in Botswana, Liberia, Panama and St. Kitts and Nevis — and one Iranian vessel sailed outbound, according to Windward AI, a maritime data platform.
The few vessels that are transiting are doing so through a corridor near Iran’s Larak Island rather than standard commercial lanes, according to Windward, with some ships switching off tracking systems as they pass.
At the same time, cargo is increasingly being rerouted through ports in Oman and along the United Arab Emirates’ east coast, adding roughly two weeks to some voyages and increasing costs by about 25%.
The continued standstill comes despite President Donald Trump saying the ceasefire hinged on “Iran agreeing to the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz.”
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While the truce has paused U.S. military action, shipping through the critical waterway has yet to resume — underscoring the gap between the agreement on paper and conditions on the ground.
Some 20% of the world’s oil supply typically passes through the strait, and analysts say shipping companies have a far lower risk tolerance than governments, meaning a fragile ceasefire alone is not enough to bring vessels back onto the waterway.
“We don’t know whether the Strait of Hormuz is mined. Even if it isn’t, the risk of being hit by a missile or a drone is a big enough deterrent,” Smith said. “No one’s willing to take the chance.”
He added that insurance constraints are making it difficult for ships to transit even if operators are willing to move.
War-risk insurance remains available in some cases, but at sharply elevated premiums and with added restrictions, further discouraging operators from entering the strait.
Sultan Al Jaber, head of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, posted on LinkedIn Thursday: “This moment requires clarity. So let’s be clear: the Strait of Hormuz is not open.”
“Access is being restricted, conditioned and controlled,” he said. “Iran has made clear — through both its statements and actions — that passage is subject to permission, conditions and political leverage.”
Meanwhile, Iran is demanding the right to charge a toll of $1 per barrel of oil on board, paid in cryptocurrency, according to the Financial Times.
Iranian state media reported Wednesday that Iran was keeping the strait closed in response to continued Israeli attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon, which the U.S. claims was not part of the ceasefire.
Still, Vice President JD Vance and President Donald Trump have said Israel will scale down its attacks in Lebanon to allow breathing room for the ceasefire to succeed.
Despite the standoff, talks between top U.S. and Iranian leaders aimed at securing a permanent ceasefire are scheduled for Saturday in Pakistan.
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