Manchester City v Aston Villa: Premier League – live!

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“Good move having Ings on the bench,” says Liverpool fan Ian Copestake. “His xG will be the same as if he was playing.”

The pre-match thoughts of Steven Gerrard

Villa start the day in fourteenth place – they can’t go any lower, but they could finish as high as tenth.

Perfectionism is…

“Oooo, you have the hot one, Rob,” says Bill Hargreaves, an opening gambit that requires no additional comment from me. “Looking forward to a great afternoon. Thank you in advance.”

Don’t thank me, thank Ebenezer Cobb Morley.

Well isn’t this interesting. John Stones returns to the side, but it’s in place of Oleksandr Zinchenko rather than Fernandinho. Kyle Walker is only fit enough for the bench.

The City team graphic suggests Stones will start at right-back, though there is a burgeoning (and slightly pathetic) culture of tactical subterfuge in these Twitter graphics, so we’ll see.

Philippe Coutinho returns to the Villa side in place of Carney Chukwuemeka, one of two changes from the 1-1 draw with Burnley on Thursday. Emi Martinez is out with a knee injury, which means a debut for Everton and Sheffield United alumnus Robin Olsen.

“That David Pleat clip never gets old,” says Simon McMahon. “I’m not really fussed who wins the title today, though some high drama and regular updates of the ‘As It Stands’ table would be nice. And if either Pep or Klopp turns up in a beige suit and slip on brogues, I’d just hand the trophy to them straight away.”

This being the final day of the season, we have three liveblogs on the go. Simon Burnton is following Liverpool v Wolves, a match that will become exceedingly relevant should City mess up, and Tim de Lisle is in Jeff Stelling mode: he’s following the race for fourth, the race for 17th and everything in between.

End-of-term reports (City 9/10, Villa 6/10, since you asked so nicely)

‘Neck’ indeed

“Do City deserve the title?” says Michael Wharton. “So many chances to win it by now. Not just the penalty miss at West Ham… Not just the endless missed chances at Palace… Not just the inability to punish a clearly inferior Liverpool at the Etihad… Not just the blowing of an eight-point lead well into the new year… No surprise to me if Villa get the draw and Liverpool hammer Wolves by a country mile.”

The team that wins the league title intrinsically deserves it, discuss.

City are yet to win three titles in a row, but four in five is the next best thing. Not many teams in England have managed it: Aston Villa in the 1890s, Arsenal in the 1930s, Liverpool twice in the 1970s and 1980s (with some overlap) and Manchester United (also with some overlap) three times under Sir Alex Ferguson.

Jonathan Liew’s match preview

Hello and welcome to live coverage of Manchester City v Aston Villa from the Etihad Stadium. In case you’ve been at a digital retreat on the Kerguelen Islands for the last month, here’s how the land lies. If City beat Villa they will be champions of England for the fourth time in five years, and Pep Guardiola will be a unique genius. If they don’t, and Liverpool win against Wolves at Anfield, City will endure the nightmare of a trophyless season – not to mention a potential Liverpool quadruple – and Pep Guardiola will be just another bald fraud in a world full of them.

In an ideal world (arf!), every title race would go the wire. The inequality of modern football means it happens less and less. Even in England, where things are relatively competitive, this is only the ninth time it has occurred in 30 years of the Premier League. On the last four occasions, starting in 2012, City have been top of the league going into the final games.

You can trace the modern history of City, and the change in their DNA, through the extreme emotions of the last day. It could be an eight-part Netflix series, with a naff subtitle: From Cityitis to City titles.

Before Abu Dhabi, City were, well, what the acronym says. They lost a relegation decider at home to Luton in 1982-83, signed their own death warrant by the corner flag in 1995-96 and put a goalkeeper up front before missing a last-minute penalty to qualify for the Uefa Cup in 2004-05.

My university friend and City fan Steve Buckley has generously pointed out some other comedy classics: the Eddie Large fiasco at Bournemouth in 1988-89 (technically that was on the penultimate weekend, but it’s too good to ignore, and what the hell let’s have a bit of Jamie Pollock while we’re here) and Stuart Pearce missing a penalty freebie – with two goalscoring records at stake – in 2001-02. A Harvard study proved categorically that, had Pearce been playing for any football club in Christendom at the time, he would have scored that penalty.

That was then and this is now. That was just nostalgia. City don’t do comedy classics anymore, certainly not domestically. Their identity changed on 13 May 2012, like Dale Cooper being possessed by Killer BOB only in reverse, when they recovered from a potentially devastating strain of Cityitis to win the Premier League in uniquely euphoric circumstances. A part of Manchester City died that day, and their fans don’t want it back.

On the next two occasions City needed a result in their final game to win the title, against West Ham in 2014 and Brighton in 2019, they dealt calmly with the pressure and had the job done after about an hour. All things being equal, it’ll be the same today. But things aren’t always equal in football, especially not on the final day. Villa getting a result is highly improbable, but it’s not impossible.

For City, the presence of Steven Gerrard, Philippe Coutinho and even Danny Ings at Villa has given this game an unnervingly whiffy narrative. The nightmare of Liverpool winning the league would be compounded if Gerrard was on the field at the final whistle, cavorting in slip-on brogues like David Pleat in 1983. But the unexpected return of Kyle Walker and John Stones will assuage the fear of watching Fernandinho, in his last game for the club, getting sent off for a professional foul on Ollie Watkins in the first 10 minutes.

Look, we shouldn’t build this game up too much. Villa could get a result, but the likely scenario is that Pep will be doing karaoke, Brobdingnagian cigar in hand, by about 10pm.

The last day of the season has never been a time for nuance. There are only two ways this can go: another City title, or the return of Cityitis.

Kick off 4pm.

Pos
Team
P
GD
Pts
1
Man City
37
72
90
2
Liverpool
37
66
89
3
Chelsea
37
42
71
4
Tottenham Hotspur
37
24
68
5
Arsenal
37
9
66