Russia-Ukraine war live: attacks reported across Ukraine; Putin nuclear weapons threat is ‘real’, says Biden

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More from the most recent ISW analysis, which writes that Russian sources have claimed that a car carrying a Zaporizhia Oblast occupation official exploded in Simferopol, occupied Crimea on Sunday. It reports:

Zaporizhia Oblast occupation official Vladimir Rogov claimed that the gas tank of the assistant to the Zaporizhia Oblast occupation deputy prime minister, Vladimir Epifanov, exploded, injuring Epifanov and two other passengers.

Rogov claimed that the cause of the explosion is unknown but that unspecified actors inspected the gas tank on June 17, implying possible sabotage.

Interestingly, the ISW appears to contradict Biden’s assessment of the risks posed by Russia’s deployment of tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus. In its latest analysis, the US think tank writes:

ISW has long assessed that Russia will likely keep tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus in order to consolidate de facto control of Belarus but maintains that this deployment is extraordinarily unlikely to have battlefield impacts in Ukraine.

A European Union report will this week say that Ukraine has met two out of seven conditions to start membership negotiations, two EU sources have said according to Reuters, with the bloc’s executive set to highlight progress made despite the war triggered by Russia’s invasion.

The news agency reports:

In a highly symbolic move, the EU granted Ukraine formal membership candidate status a year ago – four months after Russia, Kyiv’s Soviet-era overlord, attacked the country amid its efforts to pursue integration with the West.

But the EU set seven conditions – including on judicial reform and curbing endemic corruption – to launch accession negotiations. Ukraine has called for talks to start this year.

The executive European Commission’s report is a milestone in that process, which supporters of Ukraine’s quest for swift EU accession hope will culminate in a decision by the bloc’s 27 member countries in December to start the talks with Kyiv.

Two senior EU officials who were briefed on the report, which has not been made public, said Ukraine has met two of the criteria by now. One of the officials said these related to judicial reform and media law, and added that the focus in the report was on the positives.

“There is progress. The report will be moderately positive,” said the person, who spoke under condition of anonymity. “It’s not about embellishing reality but recognising progress, there have been prominent anti-corruption cases to name, for example.”

Ukraine has in recent months gone after several cases of high-profile corruption, including detaining the head of its Supreme Court over a suspected $2.7 million bribe.

Beyond stronger anti-graft efforts, other criteria include reforms to Ukraine’s Constitutional Court and law enforcement, anti-money laundering measures as well as laws to rein in oligarchs and safeguard rights of national minorities.

Russia’s mercenary Wagner group is calling for people aged 21 to 35 with a “gaming background” to join it as drone specialists as it seeks to expand its recruitment pool following heavy losses, the Institute for the Study of War notes in its latest update on the conflict.

The group’s recruiters are posting messages on social media platforms, the thinktank said citing Russian opposition outlet Verstka, which reported that recruits needed no previous experience.

The ISW also pointed to an audio intercept posted by Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR), in which a Russian soldier discusses a new Wagner recruitment campaign launched due to heavy battlefield losses.

“The new Wagner recruitment campaign reportedly advertises training with well-prepared instructors, health and life insurance, modern equipment, and guarantees that all recruits will receive all promised payments,” the ISW wrote.

US president Joe Biden says the threat of Russian president Vladimir Putin using tactical nuclear weapons is “real”, days after denouncing Russia’s deployment of such weapons in Belarus. Reuters reports:

On Saturday, Biden called Putin’s announcement that Russia had deployed its first tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus “absolutely irresponsible”.

“When I was out here about two years ago saying I worried about the Colorado river drying up, everybody looked at me like I was crazy,” Biden told a group of donors in California on Monday.

“They looked at me like when I said I worry about Putin using tactical nuclear weapons. It’s real,” Biden said.

Last week, Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko said his country had started taking delivery of Russian tactical nuclear weapons, some of which he said were three times more powerful than the atomic bombs the US dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945.

The deployment is Russia’s first move of such warheads – shorter-range, less powerful nuclear weapons that could be used on the battlefield – outside Russia since the fall of the Soviet Union.

Russia launched attacks across Ukraine overnight, including on the capital Kyiv and the western city of Lviv, close to the border with Poland.

Kyiv’s military administration said Moscow had launched a drone attack in the early hours of Tuesday, warning residents to find shelter, in a post on the Telegram messaging app. There were no immediate reports of casualties.

The administration later said the city’s air defences had detected and destroyed about two-dozen Iranian-made Shahed drones in the “massive air attack”. It was the second drone attack on the city since the beginning of the month, it said.

In Lviv, a piece of “critical infrastructure” was hit and set on fire, the city’s military administration said, but there were no injuries. Earlier, the city’s mayor, Andriy Sadovy reported explosions in Lviv and the surrounding area. It was not clear if the explosions came from air defences or from missile strikes.

Air raid alerts also sounded in Zaporizhzhia, the Kyiv Independent reported, noting that the southern city has been heavily targeted by Russian artillery over the past few days.

The situation in the city was “stable” despite a “a restless and noisy night” the head of the city council, Anatoly Kurtev, later said on Telegram. No injuries were reported and there was no damage to residential buildings while all utility systems were working as normal, he said.

Hello and welcome to the Guardian’s live coverage of the war in Ukraine with me, Helen Livingstone.

Moscow launched raids across Ukraine overnight, with Kyiv reporting drone attacks while explosions were also reported in the western city of Lviv and in the southern city of Zaporizhzhia. There were no immediate reports of casualties but authorities in Lviv said a piece of critical infrastructure was set on fire.

US president Joe Biden meanwhile warned that the possibility that Russia could use tactical nuclear weapons was “real”.

“When I was out here about two years ago saying I worried about the Colorado river drying up, everybody looked at me like I was crazy,” Biden told a group of donors in California.

“They looked at me like when I said I worry about Putin using tactical nuclear weapons. It’s real,” Biden said.

Other key developments:

Heavy casualties are being endured by both Ukrainian and Russian forces, British military intelligence has said, two weeks into the Ukrainian counteroffensive. The level of losses among Russian troops was said by British officials to be at its highest level since the peak of March’s battle for Bakhmut in the Donetsk region, with Ukraine claiming to have killed or injured 4,600 soldiers.

Ukrainian deputy defence minister Hanna Maliar said Ukraine must prepare itself for a “tough duel” but that “the biggest blow is yet to come”. Separately she said that Russia had concentrated a significant number of units in the east, including air assault troops, but that Ukrainian forces were preventing their advance. She described the situation in the east of the country as “difficult”.

Ukraine has recaptured the village of Piatykhatky, a settlement on a heavily fortified part of the frontline near the most direct route to the country’s Azov Sea coast, Maliar confirmed. It brings the tally of settlements liberated in the past two weeks up to eight, with 113 sq km of territory said to have been seized from the occupying forces.

Imprisoned Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny urged his supporters to begin a broad campaign against Moscow’s actions in Ukraine as he went on trial on new charges of extremism that could keep him behind bars for decades. In a statement posted on social media by his allies, Navalny declared that the decision to close his trial was a sign of fear on the part of Vladimir Putin, the Russian president.

The US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, said he had asked China’s government to be vigilant about private companies that may be providing Russia with technology that could be used against Ukraine, although he said he had seen no evidence Beijing was providing lethal assistance to Moscow. “With regard to lethal aid to Russia for use in Ukraine, we and other countries have received assurances from China that it is not and will not provide lethal assistance to Russia for use in Ukraine,” Blinken said in Beijing.

The British government announced plans to tighten its sanctions policy against Russia, including introducing legislation to keep assets frozen until Moscow has agreed to pay compensation to Ukraine. The new measures will require any individual who has been designated under the sanctions to disclose assets held in Britain.

The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, discussed his country’s need for long-range weapons and pushed for tougher sanctions on Russia in a phone call with Rishi Sunak. The British prime minister said the UK was firmly behind Ukraine and that “small steps forward will bring success”.

A photograph of a car apparently laden with explosives parked at the top of Ukraine’s Kakhovka dam shortly before it gave way has been said to offer further evidence Russia was behind the bombing. A Ukrainian special forces communications official told the Associated Press he believed the car was there to stop any Ukrainian advance on the dam and to amplify a planned explosion originating in the machine room.

Kyiv has accused Hungary of barring access to 11 Ukrainian prisoners of war whom Russia handed over to the EU country, which has maintained ties with the Kremlin during the invasion of Ukraine. “All attempts by Ukrainian diplomats over the past few days to establish direct contact with Ukrainian citizens have not been successful,” foreign ministry spokesperson Oleg Nikolenko said in a statement on Facebook. “Essentially they are being kept in isolation.”

Nato leaders will not issue a formal invitation for Ukraine to join the alliance at a summit in Vilnius in mid-July, Jens Stoltenberg, Nato’s secretary general, said although he added leaders would discuss how to move Ukraine closer to Nato. He also warned against accepting a frozen conflict in Ukraine in return for an end to the war and “accepting a deal dictated by Russia”.

The Kremlin said Russia’s decision to decline UN help in areas of Russian-held Ukraine flooded by the Kakhovka dam breach was motivated by security concerns and “other nuances”.

Ukraine deputy minister for strategic industries Sergiy Boyev told Reuters at the Paris airshow that Ukraine was in talks with arms manufacturers in Germany, Italy, France and eastern Europe to boost output of weapons, including drones, and possibly manufacture them in Ukraine. “We are in very detailed discussions with them. And we are certain that we will have the contracts agreements signed within the next few months,” Boyev said.

A military attack against Sweden cannot be ruled out following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a report by the Swedish military has said, stressing the importance of its swift entry into Nato. The report entitled Serious Times did not single out Moscow for instigating a potential attack but rather said Russia’s war in Ukraine and China’s mounting influence in Asia and the world were responsible for rising insecurity.