When news of a potential civil war in Russia circulated across the country, Ukrainians struggled to believe it was real. But by Saturdaymorning, as footage was shared online showing the Wagner mercenary troops with their tanks and armoured vehicles advancing towards Moscow, millions were glued to their mobile phones.
The Wagner chief, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has since called off the advance, but for 24 hours, Ukrainians dared to dream that the warlord’s action could be the fatal blow in the war.
One of the first to react to the news was Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who did not wait for his usual evening video message to comment on the Wagner insurrection.
“Anyone who chooses the path of evil destroys himself,” Zelenskiy said. “For a long time, Russia used propaganda to mask its weakness and the stupidity of its government. And now there is so much chaos that no lie can hide it.
“Russia’s weakness is obvious. Full-scale weakness. And the longer Russia keeps its troops and mercenaries on our land, the more chaos, pain and problems it will have for itself later.”
Early on Saturday, the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, accused Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of Wagner, of “treason” after the warlord launched an uprising against Russia’s army. In audio clips released late on Friday, Prigozhin claimed that a Russian rocket attack had killed scores of his fighters, vowing to take “revenge” and “stop the evil brought by the military leadership of the country.”
It is no secret that, since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, Ukraine has craved internal instability in Russia, in the hope that the political turmoil could somehow undermine Putin’s power and, as a result, end the war.
“Events are developing according to the scenario we talked about all last year,” said Mykhailo Podolyak, a key adviser to Zelenskiy. “The start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive finally destabilised the Russian elites, intensifying the internal split that arose after the defeat in Ukraine. Today we are actually witnessing the beginning of a civil war. At the same time, Ukraine continues to move along its own path. To the borders of 1991.”
People in Kyiv told the news agency AFP, before the dramatic announcement that the advance on Moscow had been halted, that they were “very happy” with the Wagner mercenary group’s mutiny against Moscow and hoped the infighting would weaken Russian troops on the battlefield.
“I expected something like this to happen but not so fast”, said Ilya Tsvirkun, 21. “I thought it would all start after the war ends. But it started earlier and it’s very good.”
He said he thought Putin “will withdraw some troops” from Ukraine to tackle the mutiny at home, making it easier for Ukrainian forces.
In a comment to Ukraine’s state news agency, Suspilne, Ukraine’s military intelligence spokesperson, Andriy Yusov, said that Wagner’s actions in Russia were a “continuation of intra-Russian conflicts” that are a consequence of the military aggression against Ukraine. “This is a sign of the collapse of the ruling regime, and such processes will intensify,” he added.
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The Ukrainians know very well that the war is not over, yet the country, even after Prigozhin said he would order his Wagner fighters to end their march on Moscow and return to their bases in southern Russia, sees a precious opportunity to turn Moscow’s internal chaos into an advantage on the battlefield.
While Putin is forced to watch his back, many believe Russian turmoil could give Ukraine the chance to step up its counteroffensive – which, Zelenskiy has admitted, is going “slower than desired” – and boost the morale of its troops, who are grappling with bloody and uncertain battles on the frontlines.
Throughout yesterday, Ukrainian Telegram channels lit up with story after story suggesting the tide was turning. One claimed dozens of Russian units were withdrawing from the front to reach Russia and face the insurgency. Others said hundreds of soldiers were leaving the occupied territories to join the Wagner group. Another suggested Belarusian partisans were also preparing a coup to overthrow the Lukashenko regime.
On Saturday evening, Oleksandr Tarnavsky, a Ukrainian commander, told the national news agency of Ukraine, Ukrinform, that its forces have liberated territories near the city of Krasnohorivka, in the Donetsk region, which have been occupied by pro-Russia separatists since 2014.
It was difficult to say which of these currently unverifiable news stories was real or the result of renewed enthusiasm.
The Ukrainian defence ministry neither confirmed nor denied reports of a Ukrainian advance.
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